HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The anti-corruption campaign has significantly accelerated since the beginning of this year. After Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has been involved, the anti-corruption efforts in pharmaceutical/device sectors would be unprecedented.</li>
<li>The main targets are leaders of hospitals/governments. The impact of anti-corruption on companies is indirect. As long as senior management are not investigated/arrested, the impact on stock price isn’t significant.</li>
<li>However, investors not only need to consider the problem of sales growth slowing down in the context of anti-corruption, but also consider whether companies is engaging in financial fraud. </li>
</ul>


The anti-corruption campaign has significantly accelerated since the beginning of this year. After Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has been involved, the anti-corruption efforts in pharmaceutical/device sectors would be unprecedented.
The main targets are leaders of hospitals/governments. The impact of anti-corruption on companies is indirect. As long as senior management are not investigated/arrested, the impact on stock price isn’t significant.
However, investors not only need to consider the problem of sales growth slowing down in the context of anti-corruption, but also consider whether companies is engaging in financial fraud. 


Anti-Corruption in China Healthcare – the Impact and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>While AI has had a profound impact in image recognition,there has been little comparable progress in drug discovery, far from the current levels of investment and expectations in this sector.</li>
<li>The success of license-in model must be based on the appropriate valuation level. The ultimate parameter to measure a drug company based on license-in model is its cash flow status.</li>
<li>Pet medical equipment is not subject to the negative policy impact of centralized procurement. Together with high demand, it is expected to become the second growth curve of enterprises.</li>
</ul>


While AI has had a profound impact in image recognition,there has been little comparable progress in drug discovery, far from the current levels of investment and expectations in this sector.
The success of license-in model must be based on the appropriate valuation level. The ultimate parameter to measure a drug company based on license-in model is its cash flow status.
Pet medical equipment is not subject to the negative policy impact of centralized procurement. Together with high demand, it is expected to become the second growth curve of enterprises.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.12)-AI Drug Discovery, License-In Mode Valuation, Pet Medical Equipment

<ul>
<li>The first to be affected is the clinical trial projects under way in Ukraine. It’s possible that pharmaceutical companies may lose such a high-quality and low cost clinical trial center. </li>
<li>Ukraine plays an important role in the healthcare supply chain. So, the war would affected both pharmaceutical companies and medical device companies, both directly and indirectly.</li>
<li>The risk to CXO is not completely eliminated. The “cyclical nature” of CRO industry could begin to show. But CDMO is better than CRO in terms of short-term investment opportunities.</li>
</ul>


The first to be affected is the clinical trial projects under way in Ukraine. It’s possible that pharmaceutical companies may lose such a high-quality and low cost clinical trial center. 
Ukraine plays an important role in the healthcare supply chain. So, the war would affected both pharmaceutical companies and medical device companies, both directly and indirectly.
The risk to CXO is not completely eliminated. The “cyclical nature” of CRO industry could begin to show. But CDMO is better than CRO in terms of short-term investment opportunities.


Russia-Ukraine War: The Impact on China Healthcare

<ul>
<li>The successful approval of Legend Biotech's CAR-T therapy indicates the FDA is objective. But we can judge FDA's attitude and globalization logic more clearly through Junshi’s PD-1 result in April.</li>
<li>Let's talk about the cyclical nature of innovative drugs. Humans, they repeat history all the time.</li>
<li>The current pet vaccine market in China is in the blue ocean, with a huge space for growth. This market has become an investment option that cannot be ignored.</li>
</ul>


The successful approval of Legend Biotech's CAR-T therapy indicates the FDA is objective. But we can judge FDA's attitude and globalization logic more clearly through Junshi’s PD-1 result in April.
Let's talk about the cyclical nature of innovative drugs. Humans, they repeat history all the time.
The current pet vaccine market in China is in the blue ocean, with a huge space for growth. This market has become an investment option that cannot be ignored.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.4)-Innovative Drug Cyclical Nature, Pet Vaccine Mkt, Legend Bio, Junshi

<ul>
<li>The Beijing municipality has added fertility treatment in its medical insurance program. We analyzed related impact.</li>
<li>If we hope to have more companies entering global TOP50 during “14th Five-Year Plan” period, domestic medical device companies need at least 25% annualized revenue growth to make it happen.</li>
<li>Actually, the national medical insurance doesn't determine market size directly but adjust the “distribution”. There's no need to focus solely on anti-tumor field, but rare diseases and central nervous system diseases.</li>
</ul>


The Beijing municipality has added fertility treatment in its medical insurance program. We analyzed related impact.
If we hope to have more companies entering global TOP50 during “14th Five-Year Plan” period, domestic medical device companies need at least 25% annualized revenue growth to make it happen.
Actually, the national medical insurance doesn't determine market size directly but adjust the “distribution”. There's no need to focus solely on anti-tumor field, but rare diseases and central nervous system diseases.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.25)-Assisted Reproduction, Medical Device Co. Globalization, New Growth

China

Huadong Medicine Co., Ltd. wholesales and retails medicines, pharmaceutical preparations, biological products, and medical instruments.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures antibiotic medicines and biochemical products.

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Huadong Medicine Co Ltd A (000963 CH)

Anti-Corruption in China Healthcare – the Impact and the Outlook

The share prices of China healthcare are now plummeting due to anti-corruption campaign, which will reach a climax in 23H2 (We'll post updates in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.12)-AI Drug Discovery, License-In Mode Valuation, Pet Medical Equipment

AI drug discovery is far from meeting the current investment level and expectations. The success of license-in mode must be based on appropriate...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Russia-Ukraine War: The Impact on China Healthcare

We analyzed the potential impact of Russia-Ukraine war on China healthcare industry including the delay of clinical trial projects in Ukraine,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.4)-Innovative Drug Cyclical Nature, Pet Vaccine Mkt, Legend Bio, Junshi

Junshi’s PD-1 result in April is more representative to judge FDA's attitude and globalization logic. We probably are at the tail end of mab drug...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.25)-Assisted Reproduction, Medical Device Co. Globalization, New Growth

Assisted reproduction is covered by medical insurance; We analyzed the benchmark of medical device companies' globalization, clarify the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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