HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd-49b9d808-e8c9-4049-a85a-5380de9f21ad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35558:1" rel="noopener"></a>YTD, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.</li>
<li>Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.</li>
<li>With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.</li>
</ul>



YTD, China Longyuan Power (916 HK) has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.
Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.
With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.


China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

China Power International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Rmb10.8bn acquisition of clean energy assets from parent by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15548:1" rel="noopener">China Power International (2380 HK)</a> is positive in raising its clean energy proportion to over 70% of total capacity.</li>
<li>The drop in share price reflects concerns about elevation of gearing and the need for potential equity funding. However, even all equity financing scenario will only dilute EPS by 1%.</li>
<li>We think its earnings quality will improve, balance sheet will be enhanced and profitability will be raised. Its 1H23 positive profit alert also showed a recovery in operational performance. </li>
</ul>


The Rmb10.8bn acquisition of clean energy assets from parent by China Power International (2380 HK) is positive in raising its clean energy proportion to over 70% of total capacity.
The drop in share price reflects concerns about elevation of gearing and the need for potential equity funding. However, even all equity financing scenario will only dilute EPS by 1%.
We think its earnings quality will improve, balance sheet will be enhanced and profitability will be raised. Its 1H23 positive profit alert also showed a recovery in operational performance. 


China Power International (2380 HK): A Major Move to Raise Clean Energy Exposure

Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Premier Li Keqiang emphasised ensuring stable energy supply and security and strengthening support for green development of energy sectors at the national energy committee meeting.
Premier Li stated some regions had set overly ambitious and unrealistic targets for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, while some industries failed to make solid energy-saving efforts in high-consuming sectors to prepare for this.

Premier Li Keqiang emphasised ensuring stable energy supply and security and strengthening support for green development of energy sectors at the national energy committee meeting.
Premier Li stated some regions had set overly ambitious and unrealistic targets for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, while some industries failed to make solid energy-saving efforts in high-consuming sectors to prepare for this.

Premier Li Keqiang Emphasises Energy Security and Stable Energy Supply

The State Council issued guideline on promoting standardized development for high-quality growth and modernization and met to address power supply shortages.The guideline also highlighted establishing carbon peak and carbon neutral standards, accelerating the energy-saving standards, setting stricter energy consumption quotas for some key products and equipment, expanding the coverage of energy consumption quota to reduce emissions.
Renewable energy operators or power operators with renewable energy capacity likely to benefit   after the State Council relaxed the ceiling on market-based power price increase from 10% to 20%. We recommend <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangdong-elec-power-dev-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25417:1" rel="noopener">Guangdong Elec Power Dev-A (000539 CH)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaneng-power-intl-inc-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28:1" rel="noopener">Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK)</a> with room to increase after other constituents of his investment theme having already experienced rapid stock rises.

The State Council issued guideline on promoting standardized development for high-quality growth and modernization and met to address power supply shortages.The guideline also highlighted establishing carbon peak and carbon neutral standards, accelerating the energy-saving standards, setting stricter energy consumption quotas for some key products and equipment, expanding the coverage of energy consumption quota to reduce emissions.
Renewable energy operators or power operators with renewable energy capacity likely to benefit   after the State Council relaxed the ceiling on market-based power price increase from 10% to 20%. We recommend Guangdong Elec Power Dev-A (000539 CH), and Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK) with room to increase after other constituents of his investment theme having already experienced rapid stock rises.

State Council Issues Supportive Measures to Boost Power Supply

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reports that CGN, the parent and largest shareholder, is reconsidering taking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-new-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4295:1" rel="noopener">CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK)</a> private. </li>
<li>CGN New Energy shares have underperformed the median peer's shares since the announcement of CGN's previous aborted privatisation attempt (2 March 2020) and on the last twelve-month basis.</li>
<li>The probability of an offer is high as CGN, an SOE has access to financing, and CGN New Energy’s valuation is low. We estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.80-4.30.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that CGN, the parent and largest shareholder, is reconsidering taking CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK) private. 
CGN New Energy shares have underperformed the median peer's shares since the announcement of CGN's previous aborted privatisation attempt (2 March 2020) and on the last twelve-month basis.
The probability of an offer is high as CGN, an SOE has access to financing, and CGN New Energy’s valuation is low. We estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.80-4.30.


CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

China

Huaneng Power International, Inc. provides electricity generation services. The Company offers electricity transmission, electricity distribution, power transformation, and other related services. Huaneng Power International provides services in China.

Huaneng Power International In (600011 CH)

Huaneng Power International In (600011 CH)

China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

Capacity expansion of 17.7-20.9% YoY, coupled with efficiency improvement will mean sharp rebound in FY23 profit. Reduction in impairment and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Power International (2380 HK): A Major Move to Raise Clean Energy Exposure

CPI's Rmb10.8bn acquisition from its parent will make clean energy reach 70% of total capacity. The move will enhance earnings by 10% and an all...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Premier Li Keqiang Emphasises Energy Security and Stable Energy Supply

Premier stressed rectifying one-size-fits-all approach in shutting down energy-intensive projects.This provides further signs of policymakers...

Li Tang

State Council Issues Supportive Measures to Boost Power Supply

Renewable energy operators or power operators with renewable energy capacity likely to benefiting after the State Council relaxed the ceiling on...

Li Tang

CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

The probability of an offer is high as CGN, an SOE has access to financing, and CGN New Energy’s valuation is low. We estimate a potential offer...

Arun George