Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for April 2016.

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for April 2016.

CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities in China - June 2016

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The PBOC has set the RMB fix significantly lower at 6.6375/$ which is the biggest one day change in the RMB since August 11.  This is a decidedly unexpected shift and the markets seem to be placing significant pressure on the RMB.  There are a number of key points about today’s fix to consider.First, the PBOC could have very plausibly set the RMB at or around the previous close but it decided to fix even lower than the previous close.  This can only be interpreted as, at least for today, a…

The PBOC has set the RMB fix significantly lower at 6.6375/$ which is the biggest one day change in the RMB since August 11.  This is a decidedly unexpected shift and the markets seem to be placing significant pressure on the RMB.  There are a number of key points about today’s fix to consider.First, the PBOC could have very plausibly set the RMB at or around the previous close but it decided to fix even lower than the previous close.  This can only be interpreted as, at least for today, a…

Largest Decline in RMB Fix Since August 11

The Brexit vote has thrown global markets into turmoil.  The GBP/USD peaked at 1.50 before dropping below 1.35 for daily move twice the worst move during the 2008 global financial crisis.  Leaving aside the short term (ir)rationality of such violent swings of the GBP due to a political event with no near or middle term shift in economic and financial policy, the overall impact will be important in determining the direction of the RMB and how the PBOC moves forward.Last week we wrote that the we…

The Brexit vote has thrown global markets into turmoil.  The GBP/USD peaked at 1.50 before dropping below 1.35 for daily move twice the worst move during the 2008 global financial crisis.  Leaving aside the short term (ir)rationality of such violent swings of the GBP due to a political event with no near or middle term shift in economic and financial policy, the overall impact will be important in determining the direction of the RMB and how the PBOC moves forward.Last week we wrote that the we…

The RMB After Brexit: What Can We Expect Today

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

A series of setbacks to China's stock markets has dented confidence and discouraged investors in the first half of 2016. These include the delay in the Shenzen-HK Stock Connect program, delays in market reforms and the MSCI decision, for the third year in a row, not to include China A shares in its global indices.

A series of setbacks to China's stock markets has dented confidence and discouraged investors in the first half of 2016. These include the delay in the Shenzen-HK Stock Connect program, delays in market reforms and the MSCI decision, for the third year in a row, not to include China A shares in its global indices.

Poor First Half for China's Stock Markets

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

It is hard to envisage how the two opposing data sets can co-exist without something worrisome happening behind the scenes. Here we look at annual growth of loan interest income for China’s banks, and the story is bizarre, to say the least. <div class="content-highlight">
Growth in China banks’ loan interest income on a quarterly basis is now negative at 1Q16.
This is totally new.
</div>It is also at complete odds with rampant loan growth. We must remind that this interest income is for loans only, it is not for wealth management…

It is hard to envisage how the two opposing data sets can co-exist without something worrisome happening behind the scenes. Here we look at annual growth of loan interest income for China’s banks, and the story is bizarre, to say the least. 
Growth in China banks’ loan interest income on a quarterly basis is now negative at 1Q16.
This is totally new.
It is also at complete odds with rampant loan growth. We must remind that this interest income is for loans only, it is not for wealth management…

China - Something Happening Here, Exactly What Isn't Clear

China

Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. operates securities businesses. The Company provides securities brokerage, securities underwriting, asset management, investment banking, and online exchange services. Huatai Securities mainly conducts businesses domestically.

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Huatai Securities Co Ltd (HTSC LI)

CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities in China - June 2016

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor...

Robert Ciemniak

Largest Decline in RMB Fix Since August 11

The PBOC has set the RMB fix significantly lower at 6.6375/$ which is the biggest one day change in the RMB since August 11. This is a decidedly...

Christopher Balding

The RMB After Brexit: What Can We Expect Today

The Brexit vote has thrown global markets into turmoil. The GBP/USD peaked at 1.50 before dropping below 1.35 for daily move twice the worst move...

Christopher Balding

Poor First Half for China's Stock Markets

A series of setbacks to China's stock markets has dented confidence and discouraged investors in the first half of 2016. These include the delay in...

Bixmoor

China - Something Happening Here, Exactly What Isn't Clear

It is hard to envisage how the two opposing data sets can co-exist without something worrisome happening behind the scenes. Here we look at annual...

Daniel Tabbush

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