Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this report, we provide an update on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8814" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1">Lg Electronics (066570 KS)</a>, including the potential impact of the war on Huawei on the company, dividend policy, debt issue, sales of non-core assets, and the launch of new smartphones. </li>
<li>Although LG's V50 ThinQ product is a bit disappointing, another new LG smartphone called G8ThinQ appears to be promising. This is one of the first smartphones to use "air motion" technology to activate some of the features including playing a song or video or adjusting volume (remember Tom Cruise in the movie Minority Report)? The airmotion technology could bring back the "thrill" of using a smartphone. </li>
<li>
Many investors around the world are asking, "What companies will benefit from the continued war on Huawei by the US government?" LG Electronics, the 7th largest smartphone maker globally, could be one of the key beneficiaries of the war on Huawei. </li>
<li>LG Electronics recently announced that it will pay DPS of 750 won for its common shareholders in 2018, which is nearly twice as high the DPS of 400 won in 2017. </li>
</ul>


In this report, we provide an update on Lg Electronics (066570 KS), including the potential impact of the war on Huawei on the company, dividend policy, debt issue, sales of non-core assets, and the launch of new smartphones. 
Although LG's V50 ThinQ product is a bit disappointing, another new LG smartphone called G8ThinQ appears to be promising. This is one of the first smartphones to use "air motion" technology to activate some of the features including playing a song or video or adjusting volume (remember Tom Cruise in the movie Minority Report)? The airmotion technology could bring back the "thrill" of using a smartphone. 

Many investors around the world are asking, "What companies will benefit from the continued war on Huawei by the US government?" LG Electronics, the 7th largest smartphone maker globally, could be one of the key beneficiaries of the war on Huawei. 
LG Electronics recently announced that it will pay DPS of 750 won for its common shareholders in 2018, which is nearly twice as high the DPS of 400 won in 2017. 


LG Electronics - Boost from Higher Dividends, Air Motion Technology, & The War Against Huawei

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers</li>
<li>Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be</li>
<li>Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected</li>
<li>Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income</li>
<li>Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income</li>
<li>Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP </li>
<li>Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network</li>
<li>Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government's resolve</li>
<li>Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries</li>
</ul>


China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers
Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be
Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected
Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income
Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income
Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP 
Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network
Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government's resolve
Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries


Confluence of Politics - China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Farha Sabri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Plans regarding Samsung and Huawei’s foldable smartphones are out. The companies, which happen to be two of the largest contenders in the smartphone landscape are expected to unveil their foldable smartphone prototypes this month. In 4Q2018, Samsung, coming in first place, held a market share of 18.7% while Huawei, in third place, held a market share of 16.1%. Both companies are following different strategies when it comes to their foldable phone models.
The concept of foldable phones revolves around devices that can be folded into the size of a smartphone or opened up in to the size of a tablet. Huawei is said to be planning to introduce their foldable smartphone with 5G compatibility while Samsung is planning to release their foldable model with 4G compatibility. The market leader aims to leverage the expertise it has gained on its display technologies in its foldable smartphones.

Plans regarding Samsung and Huawei’s foldable smartphones are out. The companies, which happen to be two of the largest contenders in the smartphone landscape are expected to unveil their foldable smartphone prototypes this month. In 4Q2018, Samsung, coming in first place, held a market share of 18.7% while Huawei, in third place, held a market share of 16.1%. Both companies are following different strategies when it comes to their foldable phone models.
The concept of foldable phones revolves around devices that can be folded into the size of a smartphone or opened up in to the size of a tablet. Huawei is said to be planning to introduce their foldable smartphone with 5G compatibility while Samsung is planning to release their foldable model with 4G compatibility. The market leader aims to leverage the expertise it has gained on its display technologies in its foldable smartphones.

Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

On Tuesday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/323" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:323:1">TPG Telecom Ltd (TPM AU)</a> surprisingly cancelled plans to roll out its mobile network in Australia, blaming the government’s ban on using <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8231" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8231:1">Huawei Technology (40978Z CH)</a> for 5G equipment for its decision. The market seems to be undecided if TPG’s decision will lead to Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) approving the TPG/VHA merger as TPG shares rose 3%, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14151:1">Hutchison Telecomm (Aust) (HTA AU)</a> (50% owner of VHA) shares declined 4%.<div class="content-highlight">The bull view is that TPG’s decision removes ACCC’s primary concern and paves the way for approval. The bear view is that TPG’s eggs are all in the merger basket and the ACCC could call TPG’s bluff and block the merger. Overall, TPG’s decision to cancel its network rollout plans does not change our view that the risk-reward remain skewed towards the downside.</div>

On Tuesday, TPG Telecom Ltd (TPM AU) surprisingly cancelled plans to roll out its mobile network in Australia, blaming the government’s ban on using Huawei Technology (40978Z CH) for 5G equipment for its decision. The market seems to be undecided if TPG’s decision will lead to Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) approving the TPG/VHA merger as TPG shares rose 3%, but Hutchison Telecomm (Aust) (HTA AU) (50% owner of VHA) shares declined 4%.The bull view is that TPG’s decision removes ACCC’s primary concern and paves the way for approval. The bear view is that TPG’s eggs are all in the merger basket and the ACCC could call TPG’s bluff and block the merger. Overall, TPG’s decision to cancel its network rollout plans does not change our view that the risk-reward remain skewed towards the downside.

TPG Telecom/VHA Merger: A High Stakes Gamble to Abandon Mobile Network Rollout

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> is set to raise JPY2.65 trillion ($23.5 billion) through the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27445" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> IPO, Japan's biggest-ever IPO. However, SoftBank Corp's IPO which is set for 19 December is oversubscribed by less than double, according to press reports. This level of oversubscription is well below blockbuster Japanese stock debuts such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27149" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a>.<div class="content-highlight">Based on client discussion on SoftBank Corp’s intrinsic value, we have put together a DCF-based valuation along with scenario analysis. Our conclusion remains the same that SoftBank Corp is overvalued at the proposed IPO price of JPY1,500 per share. </div>

Softbank Group (9984 JP) is set to raise JPY2.65 trillion ($23.5 billion) through the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) IPO, Japan's biggest-ever IPO. However, SoftBank Corp's IPO which is set for 19 December is oversubscribed by less than double, according to press reports. This level of oversubscription is well below blockbuster Japanese stock debuts such as Mercari Inc (4385 JP) and Recruit Holdings (6098 JP).Based on client discussion on SoftBank Corp’s intrinsic value, we have put together a DCF-based valuation along with scenario analysis. Our conclusion remains the same that SoftBank Corp is overvalued at the proposed IPO price of JPY1,500 per share. 

SoftBank Corp IPO Valuation: Bull/Bear Case DCF Scenarios

China

Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. provides networking products and telecommunication solutions. The Company researches and develops internet access, transmission network, servers, storage, security, and other networking products. Huawei Technologies also offers business consulting, network integration, assurance, managed, learning, and global delivery services.

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Huawei Technology (40978Z CH)

LG Electronics - Boost from Higher Dividends, Air Motion Technology, & The War Against Huawei

In this report, we provide an update on Lg Electronics (066570 KS), including the potential impact of the war on Huawei on the company, dividend...

Douglas Kim

Confluence of Politics - China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually...

Boost Research

Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?

Plans regarding Samsung and Huawei’s foldable smartphones are out. The companies, which happen to be two of the largest contenders in the...

Farha Sabri

TPG Telecom/VHA Merger: A High Stakes Gamble to Abandon Mobile Network Rollout

On Tuesday, TPG Telecom Ltd (TPM AU) surprisingly cancelled plans to roll out its mobile network in Australia, blaming the government’s ban on...

Arun George

SoftBank Corp IPO Valuation: Bull/Bear Case DCF Scenarios

Softbank Group (9984 JP) is set to raise JPY2.65 trillion ($23.5 billion) through the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) IPO, Japan's biggest-ever IPO....

Arun George

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