Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>USCBP data from August shows Y/Y declines in traffic, especially at N. border</li>
<li>Overall, air travel to and from the US has held up well vs other travel modes</li>
<li>Some US regions hit harder than others; US losses could benefit Europe, others</li>
</ul>


USCBP data from August shows Y/Y declines in traffic, especially at N. border
Overall, air travel to and from the US has held up well vs other travel modes
Some US regions hit harder than others; US losses could benefit Europe, others


US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;</li>
<li>Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; </li>
<li>We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. </li>
</ul>


2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;
Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; 
We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. 


2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

<ul>
<li>Aging population, coupled with under-development of retirement pensions, is the major headwind against enhancing consumption; </li>
<li>The headroom of urbanization as a driver for enhanced consumption is not as big as depicted;</li>
<li>Residential housing has, over the years, become the social safety net for the Chinese. Therefore, the bust of the property market takes many years, if not decades, to heal. </li>
</ul>


Aging population, coupled with under-development of retirement pensions, is the major headwind against enhancing consumption; 
The headroom of urbanization as a driver for enhanced consumption is not as big as depicted;
Residential housing has, over the years, become the social safety net for the Chinese. Therefore, the bust of the property market takes many years, if not decades, to heal. 


How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part II

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>1810 HK: Xiaomi SU7 confirmed order exceeded 60K, monetization means starting to emerge（/）</li>
<li>HTHT US/ATAT US: Orange Crystal Hotel will launch a new version with a goal of reach 750 hotels by 2025, intensifying competition with Atour.（-） </li>
<li>300750 SZ: GAC announced that its in-house all-solid-state batteries will be put into mass production in 2026（/）</li>
</ul>


1810 HK: Xiaomi SU7 confirmed order exceeded 60K, monetization means starting to emerge（/）
HTHT US/ATAT US: Orange Crystal Hotel will launch a new version with a goal of reach 750 hotels by 2025, intensifying competition with Atour.（-） 
300750 SZ: GAC announced that its in-house all-solid-state batteries will be put into mass production in 2026（/）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

<ul>
<li>300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK: Jan+Feb new energy export data show that wind power is picking up, and inverters has reached inflection point, while lithium batteries and electric vehicles are exchanging prices for volume(+/-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>Huazhu/Atour: Huazhu guided conservative RevPAR outlook for 2024, citing weak business travel demand.（-）</li>
<li>LI/1211 HK/XPEV/NIO: In 2024’s 11th week, BYD continued to accelerate while fell back, yet the overall acceleration of new energy vehicles bodes well for the whole year (/)</li>
</ul>


300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK: Jan+Feb new energy export data show that wind power is picking up, and inverters has reached inflection point, while lithium batteries and electric vehicles are exchanging prices for volume(+/-/-/-/-)
Huazhu/Atour: Huazhu guided conservative RevPAR outlook for 2024, citing weak business travel demand.（-）
LI/1211 HK/XPEV/NIO: In 2024’s 11th week, BYD continued to accelerate while fell back, yet the overall acceleration of new energy vehicles bodes well for the whole year (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

August data from the US Customs & Border Protection agency shows a decline in US border crossings. Air crossings have held up relatively well, but...

Tracking Traffic

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part II

The underdevelopment of China's pension system leads to reliance on the residential property market as social safety net. The headroom of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

August data from the US Customs & Border Protection agency shows a decline in US border crossings. Air crossings have held up relatively well, but...

Tracking Traffic

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

​China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part II

The underdevelopment of China's pension system leads to reliance on the residential property market as social safety net. The headroom of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

​Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

​New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.

New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...