Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics</li>
<li>Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)</li>
<li>Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted</li>
</ul>


Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics
Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)
Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that the share buyback privatisation offer of HK$7.80 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 4 March. </li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by &lt;10% of disinterested shareholders). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment was 3.5%/30.2%.</li>
</ul>



Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback privatisation offer of HK$7.80 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 4 March. 
The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by &lt;10% of disinterested shareholders). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment was 3.5%/30.2%.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;</li>
<li>Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; </li>
<li>We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. </li>
</ul>


2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;
Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; 
We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. 


2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

China Southern Airlines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Almost two years into China's travel recovery, November outbound activity grew strongly</li>
<li>Domestic air travel demand also showed solid growth, has accelerated since Spring '24</li>
<li>Trip.com best performing stock in this group in '24, but it no longer offers much value</li>
</ul>


Almost two years into China's travel recovery, November outbound activity grew strongly
Domestic air travel demand also showed solid growth, has accelerated since Spring '24
Trip.com best performing stock in this group in '24, but it no longer offers much value


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound, Domestic Both Solid | TCOM: 2024's Best (December 2024)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> disclosed a share buyback of the company through a scheme of arrangement at HK$7.80, a 95.0% premium to the last close price of HK$4.00. </li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by &lt;10% of disinterested shareholders).</li>
<li>The timing is arguably opportunistic, as the shares are down 31% YTD. Nevertheless, the high takeover premium and a potential scrip option lower the vote risk.    </li>
</ul>



Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) disclosed a share buyback of the company through a scheme of arrangement at HK$7.80, a 95.0% premium to the last close price of HK$4.00. 
The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by &lt;10% of disinterested shareholders).
The timing is arguably opportunistic, as the shares are down 31% YTD. Nevertheless, the high takeover premium and a potential scrip option lower the vote risk.    


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback at HK$7.80 (95% Premium)

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

January and Lunar New Year travel activity data seem OK, but not spectacular. Chinese tourists seem eager to travel, but there are few signs they...

Tracking Traffic

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March

Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment...

Arun George

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound, Domestic Both Solid | TCOM: 2024's Best (December 2024)

In November, both outbound and domestic travel activity were solid in China. Among the Chinese tourism related stocks we track, Trip.com was the...

Tracking Traffic

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback at HK$7.80 (95% Premium)

The timing is arguably opportunistic, as the shares are down 31% YTD. Nevertheless, the high takeover premium and a potential scrip option lower...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

January and Lunar New Year travel activity data seem OK, but not spectacular. Chinese tourists seem eager to travel, but there are few signs they...

Tracking Traffic

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March

Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment...

Arun George

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

​China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound, Domestic Both Solid | TCOM: 2024's Best (December 2024)

In November, both outbound and domestic travel activity were solid in China. Among the Chinese tourism related stocks we track, Trip.com was the...

Tracking Traffic

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback at HK$7.80 (95% Premium)

The timing is arguably opportunistic, as the shares are down 31% YTD. Nevertheless, the high takeover premium and a potential scrip option lower...

Arun George

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...