Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li>
<li>Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li>
<li>If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!</li>
</ul>


Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related energy and materials stocks are reaping the benefits. We expect their outperformance to continue. In this week's report we highlight commodities and actionable associated stocks.

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related energy and materials stocks are reaping the benefits. We expect their outperformance to continue. In this week's report we highlight commodities and actionable associated stocks.

Opportunities in Global Energy & Materials Stocks

Energy Expert

Thierry Bros, PhD

Thierrybros.com

As mentioned on 31 January 2017 in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/energy-who-could-benefit-from-brexit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8488">Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?</a>, "Independent trading houses operating in Europe (like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/764" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a>, Trafigura or Vitol) would be able to take advantage of the increased volatility and spread" and "some LNG producers close to Europe and LNG portfolio players would be able to arbitrage the EU vs the UK". Since this publication, Trafigura is seeking to reopen an LNG import terminal in the UK. Enjoy a short updated <a href="https://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en#206316" target="_blank">webcast</a>, where I reiterate the 3…

As mentioned on 31 January 2017 in Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?, "Independent trading houses operating in Europe (like Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), Trafigura or Vitol) would be able to take advantage of the increased volatility and spread" and "some LNG producers close to Europe and LNG portfolio players would be able to arbitrage the EU vs the UK". Since this publication, Trafigura is seeking to reopen an LNG import terminal in the UK. Enjoy a short updated webcast, where I reiterate the 3…

Independent Trading Houses to Benefit from Brexit

Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could benefit from decorrelation of energy prices between the UK and the EU?Following the policy paper " <a href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/brexits-impact-gas-markets-brext-security-supply-uk-ireland/" target="_blank">Brexit's impact on gas markets: Brexit and security of supply for the UK and Ireland</a>" just published by Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, this insight looks at the Brexit's impact on energy stocks.As the outcome of Brexit is still unknown, we can only draft…

Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could benefit from decorrelation of energy prices between the UK and the EU?Following the policy paper " Brexit's impact on gas markets: Brexit and security of supply for the UK and Ireland" just published by Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, this insight looks at the Brexit's impact on energy stocks.As the outcome of Brexit is still unknown, we can only draft…

United Kingdom

Hunting is a global precision engineering group that manufactures and supplies products and services primarily to the oil and gas industry. The company also serves the aerospace, medical, and power generation sectors with precision-manufactured equipment and premium services. Hunting was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in London, UK, with a corporate office in Houston, USA.

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Hunting (HTG LN)

Monday Delight: 24/03/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

Opportunities in Global Energy & Materials Stocks

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related...

Vermilion Research

Independent Trading Houses to Benefit from Brexit

As mentioned on 31 January 2017 in Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?, "Independent trading houses operating in Europe (like Glencore Plc (GLEN...

Thierry Bros, PhD

Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?

Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could...

Thierry Bros, PhD

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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