Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rates fell by -24% Q/Q in Q424, but ZIM exceeded consensus Q4 revenue &amp; earnings targets</li>
<li>Management guidance &amp; commentary regarding 2025 profitability paints a bleak picture</li>
<li>In our view, investors in container carriers would do well to heed these clear warnings</li>
</ul>


Rates fell by -24% Q/Q in Q424, but ZIM exceeded consensus Q4 revenue &amp; earnings targets
Management guidance &amp; commentary regarding 2025 profitability paints a bleak picture
In our view, investors in container carriers would do well to heed these clear warnings


ZIM Q424 Results, FY25 Guidance: Listen When Management Says "We're Gonna Earn Much Less This Year"

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>To avoid a political landmine, on the 4th March <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>  <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0304/2025030402128.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a deal with Blackrock to offload its entire port ops, including the contentious Panama ports.</li>
<li>It's an astute deal selling to a buyer, ostensibly backed by the Trump administration, at the top of the market, knowing global trade could fall under a new tariff regime.</li>
<li>The risk to the transaction is one of timing. US/Panama approvals are a shoo-in. But it's a complex deal, which will take time to work through the system.</li>
</ul>


To avoid a political landmine, on the 4th March CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)  announced a deal with Blackrock to offload its entire port ops, including the contentious Panama ports.
It's an astute deal selling to a buyer, ostensibly backed by the Trump administration, at the top of the market, knowing global trade could fall under a new tariff regime.
The risk to the transaction is one of timing. US/Panama approvals are a shoo-in. But it's a complex deal, which will take time to work through the system.


<ul>
<li>As part of a US$22.8bn transaction, BlackRock, Global Infrastructure Partners and Terminal Investment, have <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0304/2025030402128.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">agreed to buy</a> two contentious Panama ports from Li Ka-shing's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison (1 HK)</a> (CKH).</li>
<li>The transaction also includes an 80% stake in CKH's ports subsidiaries, which operate 43 ports comprising 199 berths in 23 countries.</li>
<li>CKH expects cash proceeds in excess of US$19bn. CKH's current market cap was - at the time of deal - also  ~US$19bn. </li>
</ul>


As part of a US$22.8bn transaction, BlackRock, Global Infrastructure Partners and Terminal Investment, have agreed to buy two contentious Panama ports from Li Ka-shing's CK Hutchison (1 HK) (CKH).
The transaction also includes an 80% stake in CKH's ports subsidiaries, which operate 43 ports comprising 199 berths in 23 countries.
CKH expects cash proceeds in excess of US$19bn. CKH's current market cap was - at the time of deal - also  ~US$19bn. 


Li Ka-Ching! Cheung Kong (1 HK) Offloads Panama Ports To Blackrock

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> (CKH) is trading "cheap" as Panama's Supreme Court agrees to consider a request to nullify CKH's canal concessions. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on CKH, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> (coming up cheap on my monitor), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-assets-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:788:1" rel="noopener">Power Assets Holdings (6 HK)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) (CKH) is trading "cheap" as Panama's Supreme Court agrees to consider a request to nullify CKH's canal concessions. 
Preceding my comments on CKH, CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) (coming up cheap on my monitor), and Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


<ul>
<li>Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025</li>
<li>January's revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost</li>
<li>We take down emerging consensus view that "all trade disruptions are good for carriers"</li>
</ul>


Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025
January's revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost
We take down emerging consensus view that "all trade disruptions are good for carriers"


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)

Singapore

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is a port investor, developer and operator. The Company is also involved in transportation related services and logistics operations, including container storage and repair, container tracking, general and bulk cargo tranfer, warehousing, marine shuttle services and other related services.

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Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT SP)

ZIM Q424 Results, FY25 Guidance: Listen When Management Says "We're Gonna Earn Much Less This Year"

Grim FY25 guidance and bleak commentary from ZIM management last week bolster our own very negative medium-term view of the deep-sea container...

Tracking Traffic

CK Hutch (1 HK): Still Trading Cheap

It's an astute deal selling to a buyer eager to please Trump at the top of the market, knowing that global trade could fall under a new tariff...

David Blennerhassett

Li Ka-Ching! Cheung Kong (1 HK) Offloads Panama Ports To Blackrock

CKH is super cheap. This deal removes a significant overhang. You could set up a long/short with CKI. Or simply buy outright in CKH. Then buy...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Cheung Kong's Geopolitics

Labelling CKH an agent of China is misplaced. But with a Panamanian court judgement potentially imminent, it's probably still too early to jump in.

David Blennerhassett

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers (February 2025)

After a respite in December, container shipping price momentum plunged again in January. We expect rates and profitability to decline sharply in...

Tracking Traffic

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