Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our measure of container shipping price momentum remained weak in October</li>
<li>Poor Q3 results and downbeat Q4/FY guidance from Maersk, Zim; and Suez re-opening?</li>
<li>Conditions are poor and will likely remain that way for a while; AVOID the sector</li>
</ul>


Our measure of container shipping price momentum remained weak in October
Poor Q3 results and downbeat Q4/FY guidance from Maersk, Zim; and Suez re-opening?
Conditions are poor and will likely remain that way for a while; AVOID the sector


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Poor Q3 Results, Weak Guidance, A Re-Opening of Suez? | AVOID

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates</li>
<li>Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026</li>
<li>Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector</li>
</ul>


Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates
Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026
Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector


Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September </li>
<li>Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026</li>
<li>Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses</li>
</ul>


Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September 
Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026
Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>Recently there have been rumors ZIM could be taken private by management</li>
<li>ZIM issued a 'no comment' but its board has reportedly hired bankers</li>
<li>We think a bid from a non-Israeli source is quite unlikely in the near-term</li>
</ul>


Recently there have been rumors ZIM could be taken private by management
ZIM issued a 'no comment' but its board has reportedly hired bankers
We think a bid from a non-Israeli source is quite unlikely in the near-term


Addressing Go-Private Rumors Surrounding ZIM | Near-Term, We Think a Transaction Is Unlikely

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Public transport and taxi segments in Singapore provide much-needed stability for the group, not much downside surprise is expected. Now 54% of its revenue is generated overseas. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> subsidiary, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vicom-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19020:1" rel="noopener">Vicom Ltd (VCM SP)</a> is in charge of the OBU upgrade in Singapore, providing some high-margin incremental operating profit.</li>
<li>It trades at 14x PE, and its share price is almost at historical low, creating another reason to build positions on this.  </li>
</ul>


Public transport and taxi segments in Singapore provide much-needed stability for the group, not much downside surprise is expected. Now 54% of its revenue is generated overseas. 

Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) subsidiary, Vicom Ltd (VCM SP) is in charge of the OBU upgrade in Singapore, providing some high-margin incremental operating profit.
It trades at 14x PE, and its share price is almost at historical low, creating another reason to build positions on this.  


Comfortdelgro (CD): Growth Evident and Cheap

Singapore

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is a Singapore-based business trust that invests in, develops, operates, and manages deep-water container ports. It provides cargo handling and port-related services, including trucking, warehousing, and distribution, primarily in the Pearl River Delta of South China, encompassing Hong Kong and Mainland China. The trust was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Singapore.

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Hutchison Port Holdings (HPHT SP)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Poor Q3 Results, Weak Guidance, A Re-Opening of Suez? | AVOID

Weak pricing, declining earnings and cash flow, and the potential re-opening of the Suez Canal to ship traffic are all reasons to AVOID container...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Maersk reported decent Q3 numbers last week, but management's downbeat tone & new guidance that suggests EBIT loss in Q4 should raise alarm bells...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

Price momentum and North American inbound demand both remained weak in September, and we believe a new ceasefire raises the likelihood of a Suez...

Tracking Traffic

Addressing Go-Private Rumors Surrounding ZIM | Near-Term, We Think a Transaction Is Unlikely

Despite the rumors floating around in Israel's financial media, we believe a go-private deal for Israeli deep-sea container carrier ZIM is unlikely...

Tracking Traffic

Comfortdelgro (CD): Growth Evident and Cheap

Comfortdelgro 54% revenue from overseas. Vicom Ltd's OBU upgrade offers high-margin profit, trading at 14x PE near historical low. Opportunity to...

Henry Soediarko

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Poor Q3 Results, Weak Guidance, A Re-Opening of Suez? | AVOID

Weak pricing, declining earnings and cash flow, and the potential re-opening of the Suez Canal to ship traffic are all reasons to AVOID container...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Maersk reported decent Q3 numbers last week, but management's downbeat tone & new guidance that suggests EBIT loss in Q4 should raise alarm bells...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

Price momentum and North American inbound demand both remained weak in September, and we believe a new ceasefire raises the likelihood of a Suez...

Tracking Traffic

Addressing Go-Private Rumors Surrounding ZIM | Near-Term, We Think a Transaction Is Unlikely

Despite the rumors floating around in Israel's financial media, we believe a go-private deal for Israeli deep-sea container carrier ZIM is unlikely...

Tracking Traffic

Comfortdelgro (CD): Growth Evident and Cheap

​Comfortdelgro 54% revenue from overseas. Vicom Ltd's OBU upgrade offers high-margin profit, trading at 14x PE near historical low. Opportunity to...

Henry Soediarko

Comfortdelgro 54% revenue from overseas. Vicom Ltd's OBU upgrade offers high-margin profit, trading at 14x PE near historical low. Opportunity to...