HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New policy was released to support the development of surgical robots in China, which would be short-term catalyst for related companies, but it may not bring high profits.</li>
<li>In fact, since March, it may not be appropriate for healthcare companies to use the COVID-19 as a reason if their performance in the following months is not as expected.</li>
<li>Before DRGs/DIP policy becomes very “lethal”, there is a “policy vacuum period” in the next two or three years, which is a good opportunity to go long in China healthcare.</li>
</ul>


New policy was released to support the development of surgical robots in China, which would be short-term catalyst for related companies, but it may not bring high profits.
In fact, since March, it may not be appropriate for healthcare companies to use the COVID-19 as a reason if their performance in the following months is not as expected.
Before DRGs/DIP policy becomes very “lethal”, there is a “policy vacuum period” in the next two or three years, which is a good opportunity to go long in China healthcare.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) - Surgical Robots New Policy, COVID-19 Update, Policy Vacuum Period

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED entered into an exclusive license agreement with Takeda- HUTCHMED will receive up to US$1.13 billion including US$400 million upfront, the third highest upfront among China’s TOP 10 license-out deals.</li>
<li>Even if fruquintinib may probably not become a blockbuster product in the future, HUTCHMED still gets a decent upfront to relieve its cash flow pressure and an internationalization admission ticket.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchmed-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:133:1" rel="noopener">Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK) </a>is undervalued based on our sales forecast. After savolitinib has been included in the updated NRDL, this year’s performance growth is worth looking forward to.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED entered into an exclusive license agreement with Takeda- HUTCHMED will receive up to US$1.13 billion including US$400 million upfront, the third highest upfront among China’s TOP 10 license-out deals.
Even if fruquintinib may probably not become a blockbuster product in the future, HUTCHMED still gets a decent upfront to relieve its cash flow pressure and an internationalization admission ticket.

Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK) is undervalued based on our sales forecast. After savolitinib has been included in the updated NRDL, this year’s performance growth is worth looking forward to.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - The $1.13B Eye-Catching Deal with Takeda and the New Outlook

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Takeda announced Monday that it has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED (China) for further development and commercialisation of Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Takeda will pay HUTCHMED $400m upfront and up to $730m in additional potential payments relating to regulatory, development and commercial sales milestones, as well as royalties on net sales.</li>
<li>Fruquintinib was approved in China in 2018, is a highly selective, oral VEGFR1/2/3 Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor and offers potential new treatment option for patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC).</li>
</ul>


Takeda announced Monday that it has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED (China) for further development and commercialisation of Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.
Takeda will pay HUTCHMED $400m upfront and up to $730m in additional potential payments relating to regulatory, development and commercial sales milestones, as well as royalties on net sales.
Fruquintinib was approved in China in 2018, is a highly selective, oral VEGFR1/2/3 Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor and offers potential new treatment option for patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC).


Takeda Strengthens Oncology Portfolio with HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Acquisition

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Wuxi Biologics Holdings is looking to raise up to US$513m by selling about 1.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK). </a>
</li>
<li>This is the company's 16th placement since it listed in June 2017. </li>
<li>In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics, past deal performance, and share the scores on our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Wuxi Biologics Holdings is looking to raise up to US$513m by selling about 1.3% of Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK). 

This is the company's 16th placement since it listed in June 2017. 
In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics, past deal performance, and share the scores on our ECM framework.


Wuxi Biologics Placement - Lesser Discount than Recent Deals but Still Looks Good

<ul>
<li>This year's NRDL negotiations could be a turnaround. If the final result really shows a moderate price decline, it will be “a landmark event” for the innovative drug industry.</li>
<li>Starting from 23Q2, with the peak of respiratory disease/COVID-19 outbreak past, the demand for related TCM would weaken. Then, the pullback of TCM would really begin.</li>
<li>Even if biotech initially tells the story of becoming a biopharma to obtain financing, it will not be realized in the end.</li>
</ul>


This year's NRDL negotiations could be a turnaround. If the final result really shows a moderate price decline, it will be “a landmark event” for the innovative drug industry.
Starting from 23Q2, with the peak of respiratory disease/COVID-19 outbreak past, the demand for related TCM would weaken. Then, the pullback of TCM would really begin.
Even if biotech initially tells the story of becoming a biopharma to obtain financing, it will not be realized in the end.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.1) - NRDL Negotiation Turnaround, Pullback of TCM, Biotech Sales System

Hong Kong

HUTCHMED (China) Limited develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products. The Company offers drugs for oncology and autoimmune diseases treatment. HUTCHMED (China) markets its products worldwide.

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Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) - Surgical Robots New Policy, COVID-19 Update, Policy Vacuum Period

New policy released to support development of surgical robot. COVID-19 is no longer an excuse for company's poor performance. It's a good time to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang