Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 2nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corporation, BOC, Power Assets, HSBC, China Mobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 2nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corporation, BOC, Power Assets, HSBC, China Mobile.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 2nd): Tencent, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Power Assets

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Distinct Healthcare Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Due to industry characteristics, it would be difficult for Distinct Healthcare to scale up. The Company is more of “a supplementary role” in the entire medical service system in China.</li>
<li>Profit margin is not satisfactory and cost side is also difficult to reduce. Even if Distinct Healthcare successfully turns losses into profits, it’s hard to generate good returns for investors.</li>
<li>Post-Money valuation was US$510 million after Series E financing. For a company that would encounter bottlenecks in both revenue and profit growth, it would be difficult to achieve high valuation.</li>
</ul>


Due to industry characteristics, it would be difficult for Distinct Healthcare to scale up. The Company is more of “a supplementary role” in the entire medical service system in China.
Profit margin is not satisfactory and cost side is also difficult to reduce. Even if Distinct Healthcare successfully turns losses into profits, it’s hard to generate good returns for investors.
Post-Money valuation was US$510 million after Series E financing. For a company that would encounter bottlenecks in both revenue and profit growth, it would be difficult to achieve high valuation.


Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings-  Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks listed in Hong Kong that have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a big jump in cumulative excess volume in some stocks and the A/H premium on a lot of the names has jumped over the last few months.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks listed in Hong Kong that have underperformed the HSCEI INDEX and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.
The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a big jump in cumulative excess volume in some stocks and the A/H premium on a lot of the names has jumped over the last few months.


Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August

Bayzed Health Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bayzed's business model is similar to that of Hygeia and Inkon Life Technology. However, Bayzed’s profit margin is largely lagging behind peers. This makes us concerned about its future profitability.</li>
<li>The nationwide expansion of oncology hospitals is very challenging. Bayzed’s expansion pace may not be as fast as expected if it hopes to control the quality of expansion.</li>
<li>Due to “heavy asset” model, Bayzed would continue to face capital pressure.The latest valuation of Bayzed in 2023 is RMB2.625 billion. We think Bayzed’s valuation should be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Bayzed's business model is similar to that of Hygeia and Inkon Life Technology. However, Bayzed’s profit margin is largely lagging behind peers. This makes us concerned about its future profitability.
The nationwide expansion of oncology hospitals is very challenging. Bayzed’s expansion pace may not be as fast as expected if it hopes to control the quality of expansion.
Due to “heavy asset” model, Bayzed would continue to face capital pressure.The latest valuation of Bayzed in 2023 is RMB2.625 billion. We think Bayzed’s valuation should be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group - Here Are the Concerns and Potential Risks

Equity Bottom-Up

Hygeia Healthcare Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>According to Hygeia’s management, the 25% growth in previous guidance for 2024 would be exceeded. 24H1 would maintain a growth rate of 40+%, and the growth in 24H2 would accelerate.</li>
<li>However, progress of some projects is slower than expected, so a growth rate of 25%+ in performance forecast seems aggressive.After all, downward adjustment of performance guidance again is very uncomfortable.</li>
<li>P/E of 30-40 is reasonable range in short term. So, Hygeia is undervalued.In long term, revenue growth could fall to 15-20% because the contribution of M&amp;A to performance would decline.</li>
</ul>


According to Hygeia’s management, the 25% growth in previous guidance for 2024 would be exceeded. 24H1 would maintain a growth rate of 40+%, and the growth in 24H2 would accelerate.
However, progress of some projects is slower than expected, so a growth rate of 25%+ in performance forecast seems aggressive.After all, downward adjustment of performance guidance again is very uncomfortable.
P/E of 30-40 is reasonable range in short term. So, Hygeia is undervalued.In long term, revenue growth could fall to 15-20% because the contribution of M&amp;A to performance would decline.


Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) - High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed

China

Hygeia is a China based oncology healthcare group.

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Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 2nd): Tencent, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Power Assets

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, BOC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings- Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck

Distinct Healthcare faces challenges in scaling up due to industry characteristics and may not generate good returns for investors despite turning...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong: Stocks Facing the Passive Boot in August

We expect 7 HK listed stocks to be deleted from global passive portfolios in August. The stocks have underperformed the HSCEI and their peers as...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group - Here Are the Concerns and Potential Risks

Bayzed's weak profit margin makes us question its future profitability and operation and management ability of its hospitals. Nationwide expansion...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang