Research from Superfluous Value, Superfluous Value

Superfluous Value

Research from Superfluous Value

Stock selection has rarely been as important as it is today. After a roaring decade for US markets and with signs of mania everywhere, the S&P 500 as over-priced as it has ever been.

But, there is better way. Superfluous Value is a contrarian, deep-dive into the markets forgotten by the 60/40 instos and indexing, momentum chasers. Where the hot money has long moved on, it leaves behind investments offering great safety and prospective returns.

I believe the 2020s will look diametrically opposite to the recent past, with Emerging Markets, the UK, Japan and commodities set to rip and I intend to be holding the best opportunities available as they do.

Please feel free to come along on the journey.

Contrarian Deep-Dive into the Markets

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>It was the sort of year that may only come once in a career.</li><li>Almost everything worked as the markets finally looked beyond US tech to Asian holdcos, commodities and EM value.</li><li>The level of outperformance was particularly surprising given the AI bubble and crypto/meme silliness rage on and that I began the year with 24% cash.</li></ul>

It was the sort of year that may only come once in a career.Almost everything worked as the markets finally looked beyond US tech to Asian holdcos, commodities and EM value.The level of outperformance was particularly surprising given the AI bubble and crypto/meme silliness rage on and that I began the year with 24% cash.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a> has entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement relating to inside information and pursuant to the Codes on Takeovers and Mergers.” </li>
<li>It is likely that the controlling shareholder (Foo Family Trust), representing 74.94% of outstanding shares, is seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme. </li>
<li>While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the headcount test necessitates an attractive offer. We estimate a potential offer price range of HK$7.53-19.44.</li>
</ul>



Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement relating to inside information and pursuant to the Codes on Takeovers and Mergers.” 
It is likely that the controlling shareholder (Foo Family Trust), representing 74.94% of outstanding shares, is seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme. 
While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the headcount test necessitates an attractive offer. We estimate a potential offer price range of HK$7.53-19.44.


Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Privatisation from the Controlling Shareholder?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>ETF flows showed subdued activity during the week although the Southbound Connect platform had a minor outflow.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> both had positive news sentiment helping their share prices rally on better earnings announcements.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> announced a major asset impairment write-down sending its stock to historic lows.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK)</a> disappointed on 2Q24 sales and profits.
</li>
</ul>


ETF flows showed subdued activity during the week although the Southbound Connect platform had a minor outflow.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and China Feihe (6186 HK) both had positive news sentiment helping their share prices rally on better earnings announcements.


New World Development (17 HK) announced a major asset impairment write-down sending its stock to historic lows.  China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) disappointed on 2Q24 sales and profits.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 7)

<ul>
<li>China ETF flows were steady for the week, however Southbound Connect flows were negative for the first time since February.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>  shares standout in the luxury brand sector as Miu Miu sales surged.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> slightly beat estimates but still have BioSecure Act overhang.</li>
<li>Property development firms <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> were hurt by poor results, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> saw earnings miss estimates.</li>
</ul>


China ETF flows were steady for the week, however Southbound Connect flows were negative for the first time since February.
Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)  shares standout in the luxury brand sector as Miu Miu sales surged.  WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) slightly beat estimates but still have BioSecure Act overhang.
Property development firms Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Wharf Holdings (4 HK) were hurt by poor results, while New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) saw earnings miss estimates.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 2)

<ul>
<li>In its final results on 30 January, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> board declared a final dividend of HK$0.60 per share, which can be paid in cash or by scrip.</li>
<li>The Chan family's share of outstanding shares has steadily increased from 53.15% in 2013 to 61.89%. The scrip dividend could increase the family to 63.57% of post-dividend outstanding shares. </li>
<li>The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is undemanding, but a privatisation offer is unlikely.</li>
</ul>


In its final results on 30 January, the Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) board declared a final dividend of HK$0.60 per share, which can be paid in cash or by scrip.
The Chan family's share of outstanding shares has steadily increased from 53.15% in 2013 to 61.89%. The scrip dividend could increase the family to 63.57% of post-dividend outstanding shares. 
The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is undemanding, but a privatisation offer is unlikely.


Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities

Hong Kong

Hysan Development is a Hong Kong-based property investment, management, and development company. It primarily owns, develops, and manages commercial real estate, including shopping malls, office buildings, and luxury residential properties, with a significant portfolio concentrated in Causeway Bay. The company was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Hysan Development (14 HK)

2025 Portfolio Review

The level of outperformance was particularly surprising given the AI bubble and crypto/meme silliness rage on and that I began the year with 24% cash.

Superfluous Value

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Privatisation from the Controlling Shareholder?

The controlling shareholder is likely considering a Bermuda scheme. While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the headcount test...

Arun George

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 7)

China Feihe beat estmates for 2Q with higher profits and GW Motor substantially increased international sales of EV's. NWD will take a large asset...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 2)

Southbound Connect flows were negative for the first week since February. Prada benefited from a weak JPY and Wuxi AppTec beat estimates. HK...

David Mudd

Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities

The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)