Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>In this weeks recap, we look at:</p><ul>
<li>the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-search-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:773:1" rel="noopener">Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU)</a> merger and the impact on the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>the spread on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a> deal and potential index flows</li>
<li>the listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)</a> and the potential Fast Entry into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance</li>
<li>the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance</li>
<li>the potential changes to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the December and March rebalances</li>
</ul><p>There are no major index events in the coming week - there were enough in the last week!</p><p>There were substantial inflows to onshore China ETFs in the last week, while there was finally an outflow (albeit a small one) from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund (KWEB US)</a>. </p>

In this weeks recap, we look at:
the Santos Ltd (STO AU) / Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU) merger and the impact on the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) 
the spread on the Keppel Corp (KEP SP) / Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) deal and potential index flows
the listing of Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS) and the potential Fast Entry into the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) 
the potential changes to the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the December rebalance
the potential changes to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance
the potential changes to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the December and March rebalances
There are no major index events in the coming week - there were enough in the last week!There were substantial inflows to onshore China ETFs in the last week, while there was finally an outflow (albeit a small one) from KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund (KWEB US). 

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STO/OSH, KEP/SPH, HHI, SET50, HSTECH, HSCI

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering / Event-Driven

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering

<p>The listing of Hyundai Heavy Industries is due tomorrow, and the time has come to consider the timing of short-selling Korea Shipbuilding &amp; Offshore Engineering (KSOE) due to the holding company discount risk.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>In general, we have often witnessed a trading pattern in which a holding company's stock price plummets when one of its major operating subsidiaries goes public.</strong></p>
<p><strong>The KSOE is also highly likely to be a target of this trading pattern.</strong></p>
</div><hr><p>KSOE is an intermediate holding company of Hyundai Heavy Industries Group, and its major subsidiaries include:</p><ul>
<li><strong>Hyundai Heavy Industries</strong></li>
<li><strong>Hyundai Mipo Dockyard</strong></li>
<li><strong>Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries</strong></li>
</ul><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/230/011/original/1.png?1631749332" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="230011"></figure></section><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value="{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;KSOE's major subsidiaries&quot;}">KSOE's major subsidiaries</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stake %"}'>Stake %</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stake value"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00B"}'>Stake value</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Note"}'>Note</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Mipo Dockyard Co., Ltd."}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Hyundai Mipo Dockyard</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"010620"}' data-sheets-formula='="010620"'>010620</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.424}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>42.40%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1298.9506391992}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00B"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "price")*googlefinance(R[0]C[-2], "shares")/1000000000*R[0]C[-1]'><strong>₩1,298.95B</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Market value"}'>Market value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Heavy Industries"}'>Hyundai Heavy Industries</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Unlisted"}'>Unlisted</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7972}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>79.72%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4246.20608}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]*R[0]C[-1]"><strong>₩4,246.21B</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"At the IPO price"}'>At the IPO price</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries"}'>Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Unlisted"}'>Unlisted</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8054}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>80.54%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1200.213}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.00B"}'><strong>₩1,200.21B</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Book value"}'>Book value</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART &amp; KRX"}'>Source: DART &amp; KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>In fact, KSOE's biggest investment point so far is that it is the only channel through which to invest in Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries, the world's largest shipyards.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>However, after Hyundai Heavy Industries is listed, the investment points of KSOE will inevitably fade. As KSOE is an intermediate holding company of Hyundai Heavy Industries Group, dividends and brand royalties from its subsidiaries such as Hyundai Heavy Industries will likely flow into the ultimate holding company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24075:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings (267250 KS)</a>, making it less attractive for investment.</strong></p></div><p>Nevertheless, its discount to NAV is 7.52% based on the current share price. This is significantly lower than the 50% level of the average discount rate of local holding companies.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NAV"}' data-sheets-note="Sang Hyun Park: Cases when a company's net cash position and the value of its publically traded interests are worth more than its market cap create the opportunity of a stub trade, in which investors can take a view that the company's core business will rise by shorting the minority stakes whilst going long the underlying. Such an opportunity has arisen in the wake of the Alibaba listing which has seen early investing company Yahoo trade at a discount to the value of its stake in Alibaba.">NAV</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of listed holdings"}'><strong>Value of listed holdings (including Hyundai Heavy Industries)</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5831.62191898336}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=SUM(R[8]C[5])"><strong>₩5,831.6B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - % of Holdco market cap"}'>- % of Holdco market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7012666341045598}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/((R[3]C[-3]*R[0]C[-3])/1000000000)">70.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of unlisted holdings"}'><strong>Value of unlisted holdings (which includes Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries)</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1825.212}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=SUM(R[7]C[5])"><strong>₩1,825.2B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stub value"}'>Stub value</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":659.0072110166407}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[1]C[-3]*R[-2]C[-3]/1000000000)-R[-3]C[0]-R[-1]C[0]">₩659.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stub value per share"}'>Stub value per share</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9311.547212597516}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*1000000000/R[-3]C[-3]">₩9,312</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of operating assets"}'>Value of operating assets</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=SUM(R[8]C[5])">₩0.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GAV"}'>GAV</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7656.8339189833605}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-6]C[0]+R[-4]C[0]+R[-1]C[0]">₩7,656.8B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GAV per share"}'>GAV per share</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":108277.93228902365}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[4]C[-3]*1000000000">₩108,278</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discount to GAV (excl. treasury shares)"}'>Discount to GAV (excl. treasury shares)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.08517033449031985}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[-1]C[0]-R[-4]C[-3])/R[-1]C[0]">-8.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Holdco net cash/debt (de-consolidated)"}'><strong>Holdco net cash/debt (de-consolidated)</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1327.7}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[5]C[5]"><strong>₩1,327.7B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of pref shares"}'>Value of pref shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[-5]C[-3]*R[-2]C[-3]+R[-5]C[-2]*R[-2]C[-2])/1000000000">₩0.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"></td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NAV"}'><strong>NAV</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":8984.533918983361}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-5]C[0]+R[-2]C[0]-R[-1]C[0]"><strong>₩8,984.5B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NAV per share (excl. treasury shares)"}'><strong>NAV per share (excl. treasury shares)</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":127053.3964327235}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-1]C[-3]*1000000000"><strong>₩127,053</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discount to NAV"}'><strong>Discount to NAV</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.07519197991517018}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[-1]C[0]-R[-9]C[-3])/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>7.52%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; DART","6":1}'>Source: KRX &amp; DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>As an intermediate holding company, KSOE plans to play a role as a control tower by conducting R&amp;D, M&amp;A, and new and renewable businesses, but at this point, its own operating operation is virtually non-existent. In other words, since the value of the operating operation is zero, the current valuation is based on the cash assets held and the value of the stake in the subsidiaries.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/230/013/original/2.png?1631750466" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="230013"></figure><p>Of course, it is true that KSOE's PBR is lower than the local peers in the same sector. However, there is a question as to whether it is appropriate to apply the PBR valuation as KSOE is a pure holding company rather than a shipbuilding company.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PBR comparisons on FY2022E net assets"}'>PBR comparisons on FY2022E net assets</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PBR"}'>PBR</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Mipo Dockyard Co., Ltd."}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Hyundai Mipo Dockyard</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"010620"}' data-sheets-formula='="010620"'>010620</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1.31x"}'><strong>1.31x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Daewoo Shipbuilding &amp; Marine Engineering"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Daewoo Shipbuilding &amp; Marine Engineering</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"042660"}' data-sheets-formula='="042660"'>042660</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1.25x"}'><strong>1.25x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Samsung Heavy Industries</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"010140"}' data-sheets-formula='="010140"'>010140</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1.05x"}'><strong>1.05x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3"><strong> </strong></td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Korea Shipbuilding &amp;Offshore Engn Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Korea Shipbuilding &amp;Offshore Engn</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"009540"}' data-sheets-formula='="009540"'>009540</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"0.79x"}'><strong>0.79x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: FnGuide"}'>Source: FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>Lastly, KSOE has an event to acquire Daewoo Shipbuilding &amp; Marine Engineering (DSME). Currently, the acquisition is awaiting approval from foreign countries.</p><p>If approved, KSOE will swap shares with Korea Development Bank through issuance of new shares. In other words, Korea Development Bank will hand over its stake in DSME (55.68%) to KSOE, and will receive a stake in KSOE instead. In this process, KSOE needs to issue more than 2 trillion won worthy of new shares. In other words, it is unlikely that this DSME acquisition event will lead to KSOE's valuation re-rating.</p>

The listing of Hyundai Heavy Industries is due tomorrow, and the time has come to consider the timing of short-selling Korea Shipbuilding &amp; Offshore Engineering (KSOE) due to the holding company discount risk.
In general, we have often witnessed a trading pattern in which a holding company's stock price plummets when one of its major operating subsidiaries goes public.
The KSOE is also highly likely to be a target of this trading pattern.
KSOE is an intermediate holding company of Hyundai Heavy Industries Group, and its major subsidiaries include:
Hyundai Heavy Industries
Hyundai Mipo Dockyard
Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries










KSOE's major subsidiaries
Ticker
Stake %
Stake value
Note


Hyundai Mipo Dockyard
010620
42.40%
₩1,298.95B
Market value


Hyundai Heavy Industries
Unlisted
79.72%
₩4,246.21B
At the IPO price


Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries
Unlisted
80.54%
₩1,200.21B
Book value

Source: DART &amp; KRX

In fact, KSOE's biggest investment point so far is that it is the only channel through which to invest in Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries, the world's largest shipyards.However, after Hyundai Heavy Industries is listed, the investment points of KSOE will inevitably fade. As KSOE is an intermediate holding company of Hyundai Heavy Industries Group, dividends and brand royalties from its subsidiaries such as Hyundai Heavy Industries will likely flow into the ultimate holding company, Hyundai Heavy Industries Holdings (267250 KS), making it less attractive for investment.Nevertheless, its discount to NAV is 7.52% based on the current share price. This is significantly lower than the 50% level of the average discount rate of local holding companies.





NAV

Value of listed holdings (including Hyundai Heavy Industries)
₩5,831.6B


- % of Holdco market cap
70.13%


Value of unlisted holdings (which includes Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries)
₩1,825.2B


Stub value
₩659.0B


Stub value per share
₩9,312


Value of operating assets
₩0.0B


GAV
₩7,656.8B


GAV per share
₩108,278


Discount to GAV (excl. treasury shares)
-8.52%


Holdco net cash/debt (de-consolidated)
₩1,327.7B


Value of pref shares
₩0.0B



NAV
₩8,984.5B


NAV per share (excl. treasury shares)
₩127,053


Discount to NAV
7.52%

Source: KRX &amp; DART

As an intermediate holding company, KSOE plans to play a role as a control tower by conducting R&amp;D, M&amp;A, and new and renewable businesses, but at this point, its own operating operation is virtually non-existent. In other words, since the value of the operating operation is zero, the current valuation is based on the cash assets held and the value of the stake in the subsidiaries.Of course, it is true that KSOE's PBR is lower than the local peers in the same sector. However, there is a question as to whether it is appropriate to apply the PBR valuation as KSOE is a pure holding company rather than a shipbuilding company.







PBR comparisons on FY2022E net assets
Ticker
PBR


Hyundai Mipo Dockyard
010620
1.31x


Daewoo Shipbuilding &amp; Marine Engineering
042660
1.25x


Samsung Heavy Industries
010140
1.05x

 

Korea Shipbuilding &amp;Offshore Engn
009540
0.79x

Source: FnGuide

Lastly, KSOE has an event to acquire Daewoo Shipbuilding &amp; Marine Engineering (DSME). Currently, the acquisition is awaiting approval from foreign countries.If approved, KSOE will swap shares with Korea Development Bank through issuance of new shares. In other words, Korea Development Bank will hand over its stake in DSME (55.68%) to KSOE, and will receive a stake in KSOE instead. In this process, KSOE needs to issue more than 2 trillion won worthy of new shares. In other words, it is unlikely that this DSME acquisition event will lead to KSOE's valuation re-rating.

Outright Shorting KSOE or Long/Short Setup with HHI on a Likely Widening Holdco Discount

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries  / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (1748326D KS)</a> raised US$925m at KRW60,000 per share, at the top-end of its IPO price range. The company is set to debut on 17th September, 2021.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) is a South Korea shipbuilder. The company is wholly owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-shipbuilding-offshore-engineering-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10155:1" rel="noopener">Korea Shipbuilding &amp; Offshore Engineering (009540 KS)</a>  after the latter’s spin-off in 2019.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>In this note, we share our thoughts on demand and deal dymamics.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Our previous coverage of the IPO:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hyundai-heavy-ipo-sharp-1h21-recovery-accompanied-with-a-surge-in-costs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56070" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy IPO - Sharp 1H21 Recovery Accompanied with a Surge in Costs</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hyundai-heavy-ipo-expensive-valuation-and-korea-shipbuilders-have-been-trading-weak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56697" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy IPO - Expensive Valuation and Korea Shipbuilders Have Been Trading Weak</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>


Hyundai Heavy Industries (1748326D KS) raised US$925m at KRW60,000 per share, at the top-end of its IPO price range. The company is set to debut on 17th September, 2021.


Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) is a South Korea shipbuilder. The company is wholly owned by Korea Shipbuilding &amp; Offshore Engineering (009540 KS)  after the latter’s spin-off in 2019.


In this note, we share our thoughts on demand and deal dymamics.


Our previous coverage of the IPO:




Hyundai Heavy IPO - Sharp 1H21 Recovery Accompanied with a Surge in Costs 

Hyundai Heavy IPO - Expensive Valuation and Korea Shipbuilders Have Been Trading Weak 



Hyundai Heavy IPO Trading - One of the Strongest Demand but KSOE Is Not Budging

SubscriptionHyundai Heavy Industries fixed the offering price at ₩60,000, the upper end of the indicative price band. As a result, it raises ₩1.08T through this IPO, with a market cap of ₩5.33T. HHI's bookbuilding result far exceeded expectations. I expected it to be successful to some extent, but I didn't know it would elicit such a warm response. With this level of success, we may even aim for KOSPI 200 Fast Entry after listing.As the competition rate for institutional subscriptions recorded 1,471 to 1, it was again close to a historical record. HHI also raised more than ₩56T in the margin in retail subscriptions. This is the largest margin since Kakao Bank's listing.









By investor type
Institution
%
Demand
%


1. Local publicly raised funds
587
35.95%
6,851,608,000
37.70%


2. Local brokerages/investment advisories
40
2.45%
462,405,000
2.54%


3. Local pensions, funds managing proprietary assets, banks, and insurance companies
276
16.90%
3,149,173,000
17.33%


4. Local - Other (discretionary investment companies, mostly local hedge funds)
382
23.39%
4,873,338,000
26.81%


5. Foreign (foreign IPO funds &amp; hedge funds)
132
8.08%
705,850,862
3.88%


6. Foreign - Other (mostly local hot money)
216
13.23%
2,132,703,000
11.73%


Total
1,633
100.00%
18,175,077,862
100.00%


Subscription rate
1,835.87

Source: DART

On average, about half went to the pricing above the upper end (including Unspecified). More importantly, all institutions have virtually written prices above 75% of the upper end. In particular, foreign institutions have made a quite aggressive pricing.








Institution type
Above the upper end + Unspecified
% of total demands
Holding tendencies


1. Local publicly raised funds
52.30%
19.80%
Long-term


2. Local brokerages/investment advisories
30.00%
0.71%
Short-term


3. Local pensions, funds managing proprietary assets, banks, and insurance companies
43.84%
7.71%
Long-term


4. Local - Other (discretionary investment companies, mostly local hedge funds)
38.22%

10.29%
Short-term


5. Foreign (foreign IPO funds &amp; hedge funds)
96.97%
3.81%
Long or short-term, depends


6. Foreign - Other (mostly local hot money)
50.93%
6.24%
Short-term

Source: DART

AllocationSome forfeited shares occurred in the ESOP, which went entirely to retail investors. Institutional allocation stood at 55%. Most of the institutional allocation results were taken by institutions with a long-term holding tendency.









Allocation by type
Initial allocation
% of the total offering
% of post-IPO SO


Institutional
55.00%
55.00%
11.15%


1. Local publicly raised funds
-
19.36%
3.93%


2. Local Br/IA
-
0.58%
0.12%


3. Local pension, etc.
-
13.78%
2.79%


4. Local - Other
-
1.89%
0.38%


5. Foreign
-
19.40%
3.93%


6. Foreign - Other
-
0.00%
0.00%


Retail
25.00%
25.60%
5.19%


ESOP
20.00%
19.40%
3.93%


Total
100.00%
100.00%
20.28%

Source: DART


In particular, a pretty decent institutional composition was created by giving about 35% of the institutional allocation to foreigners. This 35% is not a level that we can see as a significantly higher allocation ratio for foreign investors than in past cases. Nevertheless, this foreign ownership ratio is high enough to stabilize short-term investor sentiment. At the same time, almost no allocation was made to local hot money, which is highly likely to engage in short-term trading.









By investor type
Holding tendencies
Applications
Allocated, % of the offering


Local publicly raised funds
Long-term
37.70%
35.20%


Local brokerages/investment advisories
Short-term
2.54%
1.05%


Local pensions, funds managing proprietary assets, banks, and insurance companies
Long-term (pensions) &amp; short-term (proprietary asset managers)
17.33%
25.05%


Local - Other (mostly discretionary investment companies - local hedge funds))
Mainly, short-term
26.81%
3.43%


Foreign (foreign IPO funds &amp; hedge funds)
Depends
3.88%
35.27%


Foreign - Other (mostly local hot money)
Short-term
11.73%
0.00%

Source: DART




Hyundai Heavy Industries Listing: Allocation, Lockups, & Float Schedule

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries  / Event-Driven

<div class="content-highlight"><p>Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) announced its book building results and the IPO has been determined at 60,000 won, which was at the high end of the IPO price range. The demand ratio among the institutional investors was very strong at 1,836 to 1. There were 1,633 institutional investors that participated in the IPO survey of which 1,285 were domestic investors and 348 were overseas investors. </p></div><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col span="4">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" style="width: 470pt;"><div><strong>Institutional Investors Demand Breakdown of Hyundai Heavy Industries IPO Bookbuilding Results</strong></div></td>
<td style="width: 106pt;"><strong> </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: left;"><strong>Domestic Investors</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong> </strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong> </strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong> </strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"><strong> </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong> </strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong>Asset mgmt companies</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong>Brokerages</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong>Pension funds/insurance/banks</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"><strong>Others</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>No. of companies</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;">587</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;">40</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;">276</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;">382</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Demand</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"><strong>692 to 1</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"><strong>46.7 to 1</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"><strong>318.1 to 1</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"><strong>492.3 to 1</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> </td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong> Overseas Investors</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong> </strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong> </strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong> </strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong>(A)*</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><strong>(B)**</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>No. of companies</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;">132</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;">216</td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Demand</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"><strong>71.3 to 1</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"><strong>215.4 to 1</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> </td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Total (No. of companies)</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"><strong>1,633</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Total Demand</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"><strong>1,835.9 to 1</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center;"> </td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 106pt;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="width: 576pt;">Note: (A)* refers to overseas investment mgmt companies that have records of trading with the brokers involved in this deal.</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="width: 576pt;">(B)** refers to overseas investment mgmt companies that do not have records of trading with the brokers involved in this deal.</td></tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2">Source: Company data</td>
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
<td style="width: 106pt;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>Unlike major IPOs this year such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-ie-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29207:1" rel="noopener">SK IE Technology (361610 KS) </a>which had numerous hallmarks of blockbuster positive outcomes post IPO, Hyundai Heavy Industries is a mixed bag, in our view. Despite surging new orders in 1H 2021, it remains to be seen if this is sustainable. There also remain a lot of question marks about the company's profitability as well as higher steel raw material costs, higher interest rates, and the M&amp;A of Daewoo Shipbuilding which may be blocked by regulators in EU/Japan.</p><p>Even the book building results imply a mixed bag. The high ratios of lock up period and high demand ratio are certainly very positive. Also, it has a low free float and solid employees subscription for the IPO shares. However, why did the institutional investors not indicate higher prices for the IPO (above 60,000 won)?</p>

Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) announced its book building results and the IPO has been determined at 60,000 won, which was at the high end of the IPO price range. The demand ratio among the institutional investors was very strong at 1,836 to 1. There were 1,633 institutional investors that participated in the IPO survey of which 1,285 were domestic investors and 348 were overseas investors. 






Institutional Investors Demand Breakdown of Hyundai Heavy Industries IPO Bookbuilding Results
 


Domestic Investors
 
 
 
 


 
Asset mgmt companies
Brokerages
Pension funds/insurance/banks
Others


No. of companies
587
40
276
382


Demand
692 to 1
46.7 to 1
318.1 to 1
492.3 to 1


 
 
 
 
 


 Overseas Investors
 
 
 
 


 
(A)*
(B)**
 
 


No. of companies
132
216
 
 


Demand
71.3 to 1
215.4 to 1
 
 


 
 
 
 
 


Total (No. of companies)
1,633
 
 
 


Total Demand
1,835.9 to 1
 
 
 

Note: (A)* refers to overseas investment mgmt companies that have records of trading with the brokers involved in this deal.
(B)** refers to overseas investment mgmt companies that do not have records of trading with the brokers involved in this deal.

Source: Company data
 
 



Unlike major IPOs this year such as KakaoBank (323410 KS), SK Bioscience (302440 KS), and SK IE Technology (361610 KS) which had numerous hallmarks of blockbuster positive outcomes post IPO, Hyundai Heavy Industries is a mixed bag, in our view. Despite surging new orders in 1H 2021, it remains to be seen if this is sustainable. There also remain a lot of question marks about the company's profitability as well as higher steel raw material costs, higher interest rates, and the M&amp;A of Daewoo Shipbuilding which may be blocked by regulators in EU/Japan.Even the book building results imply a mixed bag. The high ratios of lock up period and high demand ratio are certainly very positive. Also, it has a low free float and solid employees subscription for the IPO shares. However, why did the institutional investors not indicate higher prices for the IPO (above 60,000 won)?

Hyundai Heavy Industries - Trading Strategy Post Book Building Results

South Korea

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding company. The Company provides naval shipbuilding, industrial shipbuilding, crude oil tanker, bulk carrier, container carrier, and other related services. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries also offers offshore and engineering, engine and machinery, offshore, industrial, and marine plant services.

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HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)

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Hyundai Heavy Industries - Trading Strategy Post Book Building Results

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