Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KTX maintains an Outperform rating, with a new fair value of Bt26.75 vs. Bt23.90 previously, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 5.07%, reflecting a target PER of 19.7x.</li>
<li>The valuation metrics suggest that the current stock price presents a buying opportunity, supported by strong earnings growth, while the tactical parameters indicate limited upside.</li>
<li>We like ITC for its positioning as a highly competitive player on the global pet food stage.</li>
</ul>


KTX maintains an Outperform rating, with a new fair value of Bt26.75 vs. Bt23.90 previously, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 5.07%, reflecting a target PER of 19.7x.
The valuation metrics suggest that the current stock price presents a buying opportunity, supported by strong earnings growth, while the tactical parameters indicate limited upside.
We like ITC for its positioning as a highly competitive player on the global pet food stage.


I-Tail Corporation - Strong Profitability Prompts 2024-26E Earnings Revision

<ul><li>KTX maintains an Outperform rating and the 12M FV of Bt23.90, based on a required return of 5.19%.</li><li>Our valuation metrics suggest that the current valuation is undervalued, alongside strong long-term growth prospects; meanwhile, the tactical parameters are at a neutral level.</li><li>The company recovered strongly from the 2023 destocking cycle. </li></ul>

KTX maintains an Outperform rating and the 12M FV of Bt23.90, based on a required return of 5.19%.Our valuation metrics suggest that the current valuation is undervalued, alongside strong long-term growth prospects; meanwhile, the tactical parameters are at a neutral level.The company recovered strongly from the 2023 destocking cycle. 

I-Tail Corporation - 2Q24 Beat Expectation Thanks to GPM Surprise

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite the contraction of exports in June at -0.3% YoY, we still believe that Thai international trade will meet the 2024E forecasts of the NESDC (i.e., a trade surplus of +USD10bn, export growth of +2%, and import growth of +4.6%), supported by the growth of the digital economy, which boosts demand for related products.</li><li>However, risk factors include drought reducing agricultural products in the market, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, higher freight rates in the second half of the year, slow recovery of some trading partner economies, and elections in many countries causing uncertainty, leading investors to delay investments while awaiting new government policies.</li><li>We recommend export-related stocks that are showing good signs of recovery: the rubber sector (NER and STA), the processed chicken sector (CPF, GFPT and BTG), the pet food sector (ITC and AAI), and the electronics sector (HANA).</li></ul>

Despite the contraction of exports in June at -0.3% YoY, we still believe that Thai international trade will meet the 2024E forecasts of the NESDC (i.e., a trade surplus of +USD10bn, export growth of +2%, and import growth of +4.6%), supported by the growth of the digital economy, which boosts demand for related products.However, risk factors include drought reducing agricultural products in the market, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, higher freight rates in the second half of the year, slow recovery of some trading partner economies, and elections in many countries causing uncertainty, leading investors to delay investments while awaiting new government policies.We recommend export-related stocks that are showing good signs of recovery: the rubber sector (NER and STA), the processed chicken sector (CPF, GFPT and BTG), the pet food sector (ITC and AAI), and the electronics sector (HANA).

Economic Update – Exports & Imports - Jul 30, 2024

<ul><li>We initiate our coverage on ITC with an Outperform rating and a 12M FV of Bt23.90, based on a required return of 5.19%.</li><li>We like ITC for its advanced manufacturing capabilities, continuous innovation, expertise in raw material sourcing, and strong relationships with key partners and customers.</li><li>Although ITC’s valuation is not cheap compared to its Thai and global peers, we believe it deserves the premium thank to its strong positioning in the global market.</li></ul>

We initiate our coverage on ITC with an Outperform rating and a 12M FV of Bt23.90, based on a required return of 5.19%.We like ITC for its advanced manufacturing capabilities, continuous innovation, expertise in raw material sourcing, and strong relationships with key partners and customers.Although ITC’s valuation is not cheap compared to its Thai and global peers, we believe it deserves the premium thank to its strong positioning in the global market.

I-Tail Corporation - Leader in Global Pet Food Manufacturing

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There will be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 June.</li>
<li>All changes are in line with our forecasts, but one stock could be a surprise inclusion for some.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 3.9% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL</a>, 3.7% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a>, 1.5% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern TidLor</a> and 1% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation</a>.</li>
</ul>


There will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 28 June.
All changes are in line with our forecasts, but one stock could be a surprise inclusion for some.
Passive trackers will need to buy 3.9% of float in I-TAIL, 3.7% of float in Berli Jucker, 1.5% of float in Ngern TidLor and 1% of float in Bangchak Corporation.


SET50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes Next Week; One Could Surprise

Thailand

i-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited manufactures and exports pet food products. The Company offers sea food, meat chunks, and loaf products for pets. i-Tail serves customers worldwide.

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I-TAIL (ITC TB)

I-Tail Corporation - Strong Profitability Prompts 2024-26E Earnings Revision

KTX maintains an Outperform rating, with a new fair value of Bt26.75 vs. Bt23.90 previously, based on the earnings yield and a required return of...

Krungthai XSpring

I-Tail Corporation - 2Q24 Beat Expectation Thanks to GPM Surprise

Our valuation metrics suggest that the current valuation is undervalued, alongside strong long-term growth prospects; meanwhile, the tactical...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update – Exports & Imports - Jul 30, 2024

Despite the contraction of exports in June at -0.3% YoY, we still believe that Thai international trade will meet the 2024E forecasts of the NESDC

Krungthai XSpring

I-Tail Corporation - Leader in Global Pet Food Manufacturing

Although ITC’s valuation is not cheap compared to its Thai and global peers, we believe it deserves the premium thank to its strong positioning in...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes Next Week; One Could Surprise

The SET50 Index rebalances at the close on Friday. Most stocks are up since the announcement of the changes and the deletes could come under...

Brian Freitas

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