Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's SPE rebound yesterday led by Lasertec -10% may be short lived.</li>
<li>However, NVDA's week-long developers conference from Monday may act as dip buying catalyst.</li>
<li>Still room for EU related plays to gain with many related names inherently defensive.</li>
</ul>


Japan's SPE rebound yesterday led by Lasertec -10% may be short lived.
However, NVDA's week-long developers conference from Monday may act as dip buying catalyst.
Still room for EU related plays to gain with many related names inherently defensive.


Japan Morning Connection: Bloodbath for Tech and Continued Pivot from Growth to Value

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Japanese markets experienced significant pressure this week, with the Nikkei 225 falling 4.2% and the Topix declining 2%</li>
<li>The week was dominated by escalating global trade tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump announced multiple tariff initiatives.</li>
<li>Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure, particularly chip and AI-related companies including Disco (-19%), Tokyo Electron (-12%), and Advantest (-15%).</li>
</ul>


Japanese markets experienced significant pressure this week, with the Nikkei 225 falling 4.2% and the Topix declining 2%
The week was dominated by escalating global trade tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump announced multiple tariff initiatives.
Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure, particularly chip and AI-related companies including Disco (-19%), Tokyo Electron (-12%), and Advantest (-15%).


Japan Strategy Weekly | Tech Stocks Bore the Brunt of Selling

<ul>
<li>INTC +16% on the potential for a breakup should see TEL, Lasertec and Ibiden higher.</li>
<li>Micron's new SSD' offering helping memory plays up, possibly lifting Micronics even more.</li>
<li>Kokusai Electric's short interest continues to grow despite the on going squeeze...now &gt;10 dtc.</li>
</ul>


INTC +16% on the potential for a breakup should see TEL, Lasertec and Ibiden higher.
Micron's new SSD' offering helping memory plays up, possibly lifting Micronics even more.
Kokusai Electric's short interest continues to grow despite the on going squeeze...now &gt;10 dtc.


Japan Morning Connection: SPX at the ATH's and Semi-Cap Plays Looking Strong to Start

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>’s tender offer from a JIC alliance is at JPY5,920. Today’s update notes that JIC has satisfied the regulatory precondition. </li>
<li>The tender offer is expected to commence in mid-February. The Board will continue to recommend it because it remains attractive. </li>
<li>Deal fatigue (announced in December 2023) and Ibiden's derating will nudge shareholders to accept. At the last close and for an end-of-March payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/3.9%.</li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)’s tender offer from a JIC alliance is at JPY5,920. Today’s update notes that JIC has satisfied the regulatory precondition. 
The tender offer is expected to commence in mid-February. The Board will continue to recommend it because it remains attractive. 
Deal fatigue (announced in December 2023) and Ibiden's derating will nudge shareholders to accept. At the last close and for an end-of-March payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/3.9%.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): JIC’s Tender Offer on the Home Stretch

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225 Index</a> over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.
The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the Nikkei225 Index over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.
Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Bloodbath for Tech and Continued Pivot from Growth to Value

Japan's SPE rebound may be short-lived, but NVDA's conference could boost AI related names. EU-related plays still have room to gain with pivot...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Tech Stocks Bore the Brunt of Selling

Japanese markets faced heavy selling pressure due to escalating global trade tensions, leading to significant declines in the Nikkei 225 and...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: SPX at the ATH's and Semi-Cap Plays Looking Strong to Start

INTC +16% on potential for breakup should send JP suppliers higher, Micronics may get a further lift, Kokusai Electric short interest ontinues to...

Andrew Jackson

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): JIC’s Tender Offer on the Home Stretch

The precondition is satisfied, and the tender offer is from 18 February to 18 March (20 business days). Deal fatigue and the derating of Ibiden...

Arun George

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Bloodbath for Tech and Continued Pivot from Growth to Value

​Japan's SPE rebound may be short-lived, but NVDA's conference could boost AI related names. EU-related plays still have room to gain with pivot...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Tech Stocks Bore the Brunt of Selling

​Japanese markets faced heavy selling pressure due to escalating global trade tensions, leading to significant declines in the Nikkei 225 and...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: SPX at the ATH's and Semi-Cap Plays Looking Strong to Start

INTC +16% on potential for breakup should send JP suppliers higher, Micronics may get a further lift, Kokusai Electric short interest ontinues to...

Andrew Jackson

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): JIC’s Tender Offer on the Home Stretch

The precondition is satisfied, and the tender offer is from 18 February to 18 March (20 business days). Deal fatigue and the derating of Ibiden...

Arun George

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Japan's SPE rebound may be short-lived, but NVDA's conference could boost AI related names. EU-related plays still have room to gain with pivot...

Japanese markets faced heavy selling pressure due to escalating global trade tensions, leading to significant declines in the Nikkei 225 and...