Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weak tape for tech over mixed signalling out of White House.</li>
<li>Kyocera earnings missed but management seem to be pulling the right levers (finally) on the restructuring front.</li>
<li>Ibiden tarred by the Shinko brush, but what about its NVDA exposure?</li>
</ul>


Weak tape for tech over mixed signalling out of White House.
Kyocera earnings missed but management seem to be pulling the right levers (finally) on the restructuring front.
Ibiden tarred by the Shinko brush, but what about its NVDA exposure?


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Tariff U-Turn Will Help Markets Start Better

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.</li>
<li>It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).</li>
<li>Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC. </li>
</ul>


JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC. 


Shinko Electric (6967) - All Approvals In, JIC Says "Mid-Feb" So Cash Is 19-21 March?

<ul>
<li>Lam Research and KLA carrying on from ASML beat earlier in the week: positive for JP SPE.</li>
<li>Intel trading better after hours with earnings not a horrible as feared may help JP suppliers.</li>
<li>IBM beat on its transition to services and AI offerings should help JP IT such as Fujitsu, as well as NEC and NRI who also reported yesterday.</li>
</ul>


Lam Research and KLA carrying on from ASML beat earlier in the week: positive for JP SPE.
Intel trading better after hours with earnings not a horrible as feared may help JP suppliers.
IBM beat on its transition to services and AI offerings should help JP IT such as Fujitsu, as well as NEC and NRI who also reported yesterday.


Japan Morning Connection: Semi Rebound with Good Earnings from Semi-Cap Majors

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.</li>
<li>The recent drop in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.

Shift Inc (3697 JP) will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.
The recent drop in Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

<ul>
<li>Softbank pledging $500bn worth of AI investment over the next 4-years will send JP SPE higher.</li>
<li>Plenty of high-quality semi-related names in Japan yet to recover from last years 4Q sell-off.</li>
<li>DR Horton numbers were a beat, but sold off their AM highs despite the weakening yields. Any sell off a buy the dip change for Sumi Forestry.</li>
</ul>


Softbank pledging $500bn worth of AI investment over the next 4-years will send JP SPE higher.
Plenty of high-quality semi-related names in Japan yet to recover from last years 4Q sell-off.
DR Horton numbers were a beat, but sold off their AM highs despite the weakening yields. Any sell off a buy the dip change for Sumi Forestry.


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Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Tariff U-Turn Will Help Markets Start Better

Tech stocks weak over mixed signals from the White House, Kyocera making good restructuring efforts despite earnings miss, Ibiden suffered from...

Andrew Jackson

Shinko Electric (6967) - All Approvals In, JIC Says "Mid-Feb" So Cash Is 19-21 March?

Shinko Q3 earnings results and full-year guidance revised lower on Friday does not fill arbs with enormous confidence. The shares are down this AM....

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Semi Rebound with Good Earnings from Semi-Cap Majors

Positive earnings reports from Lam Research and KLA bode well for JP SPE. Intel earnings better than feared may help JP suppliers. IBM beat may...

Andrew Jackson

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

With 4 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing is now in double capping zone which would require passives to sell 13.3m shares in March. If...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Tariff U-Turn Will Help Markets Start Better

​Tech stocks weak over mixed signals from the White House, Kyocera making good restructuring efforts despite earnings miss, Ibiden suffered from...

Andrew Jackson

Shinko Electric (6967) - All Approvals In, JIC Says "Mid-Feb" So Cash Is 19-21 March?

Shinko Q3 earnings results and full-year guidance revised lower on Friday does not fill arbs with enormous confidence. The shares are down this AM....

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Semi Rebound with Good Earnings from Semi-Cap Majors

​Positive earnings reports from Lam Research and KLA bode well for JP SPE. Intel earnings better than feared may help JP suppliers. IBM beat may...

Andrew Jackson

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

With 4 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing is now in double capping zone which would require passives to sell 13.3m shares in March. If...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

​Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...

Andrew Jackson

Tech stocks weak over mixed signals from the White House, Kyocera making good restructuring efforts despite earnings miss, Ibiden suffered from...

Positive earnings reports from Lam Research and KLA bode well for JP SPE. Intel earnings better than feared may help JP suppliers. IBM beat may...

Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...