Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Japan is the darling of the moment. To those who haven’t kept track of the story, a series of <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/improvements/follow-up/b5b4pj000004yqcc-att/dreu250000000uqc.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">market reforms in January</a> encourages companies with a price-to-book ratio below one to create a plan to achieve capital efficiency.</li><li>Given that half of the companies at the time were trading below 1x P/B, this is a big deal.</li><li>And this has driven a massive wave of buybacks and changes, leading to the Nikkei finally breaking a 30-year high.</li></ul>

Japan is the darling of the moment. To those who haven’t kept track of the story, a series of market reforms in January encourages companies with a price-to-book ratio below one to create a plan to achieve capital efficiency.Given that half of the companies at the time were trading below 1x P/B, this is a big deal.And this has driven a massive wave of buybacks and changes, leading to the Nikkei finally breaking a 30-year high.

Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.4%  1st down day  7 as Markets price in Peak rates/rate declines;  SPX Looks risky here(More BELOW); China revamps NEV subsidies; Putin places tactical Nukes in Belarus..mmm</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash;  USDJPY 141.8 post-BOJ on Friday;  NKY wins for 10th week; Kishida survives no-confidence motion; TEPCO goes full into Renewables; Lawsons makes a China push</li>
<li>NUGGET. SBI HD(8473) - Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early in what sets up to be a major opportunity</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.4%  1st down day  7 as Markets price in Peak rates/rate declines;  SPX Looks risky here(More BELOW); China revamps NEV subsidies; Putin places tactical Nukes in Belarus..mmm
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash;  USDJPY 141.8 post-BOJ on Friday;  NKY wins for 10th week; Kishida survives no-confidence motion; TEPCO goes full into Renewables; Lawsons makes a China push
NUGGET. SBI HD(8473) - Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early in what sets up to be a major opportunity


Ohayo Japan | US Equities-Risks Elevated? ; NUGGET: SBI HD(8473)-Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. AI Driven Tech Rally Continues; Debt Deal Close(r) as Biden-McCarthy Agree, Vote still to come;More Hikes to Come as Inflation Picks UP; (Another) Massive Boeing order in the works</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs 1.9% Prem  vs Cash; US Tech(AI) Driven Rally continues;Yen Shorts Accummulate as USDJPY pass 140; Tokyo Inflation Slows;Toyota Loses crown of top selling car to TESLA</li>
<li>NUGGET. Drone Delivery in Japan - within Sight; Japan Post(6178) leading the way aiming for 2023 commercialization. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. AI Driven Tech Rally Continues; Debt Deal Close(r) as Biden-McCarthy Agree, Vote still to come;More Hikes to Come as Inflation Picks UP; (Another) Massive Boeing order in the works
JAPAN. NKY Futs 1.9% Prem  vs Cash; US Tech(AI) Driven Rally continues;Yen Shorts Accummulate as USDJPY pass 140; Tokyo Inflation Slows;Toyota Loses crown of top selling car to TESLA
NUGGET. Drone Delivery in Japan - within Sight; Japan Post(6178) leading the way aiming for 2023 commercialization. 


Ohayo Japan |AI All the Way Tech Continues to Lead Equities UP; NUGGET: JP Drone Delivery-In Sight

<ul>
<li>It was a relatively quiet week for the broader index. However, there was a big sector shift towards tech and AI winners.</li>
<li>Japanese Heavy Equipment makers have technologies that will be in demand for decades. KHI trades below book. </li>
<li>As we head into AGM season, we take a look at interesting activist campaigns. </li>
</ul>


It was a relatively quiet week for the broader index. However, there was a big sector shift towards tech and AI winners.
Japanese Heavy Equipment makers have technologies that will be in demand for decades. KHI trades below book. 
As we head into AGM season, we take a look at interesting activist campaigns. 


Japan Weekly | Advantest, Ibiden, Kawasaki Heavy, SK Kaken, NCHD

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So

Another BSPDN name and some ABF ideas. Not every AI semiconductor stock is actually winning. This edition just so happens to be Japan focused

Fabricated Knowledge

Ohayo Japan | US Equities-Risks Elevated? ; NUGGET: SBI HD(8473)-Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early

US Equities looks more RISK than reward to us; NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 141.8 post-BOJ on Friday; NKY wins for 10th week; Kishida survives...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan |AI All the Way Tech Continues to Lead Equities UP; NUGGET: JP Drone Delivery-In Sight

Debt Deal Close; NKY Futs 1.9% Prem vs Cash; Yen Shorts rise as USDJPY pass 140; Tokyo Inflation Slows;Toyota Loses crown of top selling car to...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Advantest, Ibiden, Kawasaki Heavy, SK Kaken, NCHD

Foreign investors continue to flood into the Japanese market. There are plenty of AI beneficiaries and plenty of old economy companies that have in...

Mark Chadwick

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