Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Feb 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD23,298m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, NEC, Advantest, SoftBank, Fujikura, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Recruit, Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, Nec, Advantest.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Feb 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD23,298m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, NEC, Advantest, SoftBank, Fujikura, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Recruit, Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, Nec, Advantest.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Feb 6th): Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, NEC, Advantest

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable / Index Rebalance

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (6869 HK)

<ul>
<li>The changes to a global index in February will be announced pre-market open tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 27 February.</li>
<li>The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangtze-optical-fibre-and-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:83:1" rel="noopener">Yangtze Optical Fibre And H (6869 HK)</a> is up 90% over the last 3 weeks and the AH premium versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangtze-optical-fibre-cable" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29980:1" rel="noopener">Yangtze Optical Fibre &amp; Cable (601869 CH)</a> has dropped significantly.</li>
</ul>


The changes to a global index in February will be announced pre-market open tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 27 February.
The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.

Yangtze Optical Fibre And H (6869 HK) is up 90% over the last 3 weeks and the AH premium versus Yangtze Optical Fibre &amp; Cable (601869 CH) has dropped significantly.


Global Index: Potential Changes in February for Asia Pac

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>’s 3Q results further emphasise that Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer is light. The offer implies a P/B ratio of 0.93x based on the 3Q book value.</li>
<li>Fudosan’s assertion that it will not change the offer price is not credible. Elliott is likely to further increase its stake but is unlikely have its price expectations met.</li>
<li>Fudosan’s likely gameplan is to bump above 3Q book value (JPY21,300 to bring the P/B back to the pre-3Q ratio of 1.05x) and possibly also lower the minimum. </li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s 3Q results further emphasise that Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer is light. The offer implies a P/B ratio of 0.93x based on the 3Q book value.
Fudosan’s assertion that it will not change the offer price is not credible. Elliott is likely to further increase its stake but is unlikely have its price expectations met.
Fudosan’s likely gameplan is to bump above 3Q book value (JPY21,300 to bring the P/B back to the pre-3Q ratio of 1.05x) and possibly also lower the minimum. 


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Who Wins This Game of Chicken?

<ul>
<li>Elliott has <a href="https://elliottletters.com/toyota-industries/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">released a letter</a> urging shareholders to reject Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Elliott’s letter makes both sensible (the offer is below 3Q book value, with limited downside risk on a deal break) and outlandish (the standalone plan is worth JPY40,000) assertions.</li>
<li>There is a good chance of a further bump (to JPY21,000), as an offer below the 3Q book value (disclosed on 3 February) will give Elliott’s campaign a huge boost.   </li>
</ul>


Elliott has released a letter urging shareholders to reject Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer for Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
Elliott’s letter makes both sensible (the offer is below 3Q book value, with limited downside risk on a deal break) and outlandish (the standalone plan is worth JPY40,000) assertions.
There is a good chance of a further bump (to JPY21,000), as an offer below the 3Q book value (disclosed on 3 February) will give Elliott’s campaign a huge boost.   


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Evaluating Elliott’s Letter

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jan 16th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD20,863m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Advantest, Lasertec, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kioxia, Sanrio, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Keyence, Softbank, Advantest, Lasertec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jan 16th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD20,863m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Advantest, Lasertec, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kioxia, Sanrio, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Keyence, Softbank, Advantest, Lasertec.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jan 16th): SoftBank, Advantest, Lasertec, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Feb 6th): Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, NEC, Advantest

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Nintendo (7974 JP), Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP), Lasertec (6920...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Index: Potential Changes in February for Asia Pac

A global index announces tomorrow and rebalances at the close on 27 Feb. There will be a lot of changes with China leading the way. Stocks have...

Brian Freitas

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Who Wins This Game of Chicken?

Elliott has increased its holding from 21.7 to 23.3 million shares (7.21% to 7.74% ownership ratio). The latest purchases, made after the release...

Arun George

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Evaluating Elliott’s Letter

Fudosan states that the offer is the best possible price and has no intention to change it. This is largely gamesmanship to manage "bump"...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jan 16th): SoftBank, Advantest, Lasertec, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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