Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> merger will result in capping and funding changes on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> constituents.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.</li>
</ul>


The HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) / HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) merger will result in capping and funding changes on the Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) constituents.
We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.
The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Reliance Industries: Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 2,637/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses (2) EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses</li><li>RIL’s consolidated EBITDA at INR 384bn (+23% YoY, +9% QoQ, HSIE: INR 378bn) and APAT at INR 193bn (+19% YoY, +22% QoQ), came in above our estimates</li><li>Earnings in Q4 were largely driven by strong growth seen in the O2C segment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reliance Industries: Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 2,637/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses (2) EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businessesRIL’s consolidated EBITDA at INR 384bn (+23% YoY, +9% QoQ, HSIE: INR 378bn) and APAT at INR 193bn (+19% YoY, +22% QoQ), came in above our estimatesEarnings in Q4 were largely driven by strong growth seen in the O2C segment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong credit growth was visible across segments - Retail loans (+23/5% YoY/QoQ), Business Banking portfolio (+35/8% YoY/QoQ), SME book (+19/6% YoY/QoQ) and Corporate Loans (+21/4% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>NII grew by 40/7% YoY/QoQ driven by healthy credit growth of 19/5% YoY/QoQ and multi-year high NIMs of 4.9% (+90bps/25bps YoY/QoQ).</li><li>Non-interest income growth was driven by fee income growth of 11/2% YoY/QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong credit growth was visible across segments - Retail loans (+23/5% YoY/QoQ), Business Banking portfolio (+35/8% YoY/QoQ), SME book (+19/6% YoY/QoQ) and Corporate Loans (+21/4% YoY/QoQ).NII grew by 40/7% YoY/QoQ driven by healthy credit growth of 19/5% YoY/QoQ and multi-year high NIMs of 4.9% (+90bps/25bps YoY/QoQ).Non-interest income growth was driven by fee income growth of 11/2% YoY/QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ICICI Bank Ltd. -Stellar Quarter, Growth Momentum to Sustain!

<ul><li>Given the RBI's recent pause in the policy rate cycle, we believe that the banking system, although largely resilient to the fallout from global banks, is faced with a combination of demand deceleration (lower growth), higher funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreads</li><li>As banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is not priced into valuations, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchises</li><li>While we hold our below-consensus growth forecasts, we are now equally conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given the RBI's recent pause in the policy rate cycle, we believe that the banking system, although largely resilient to the fallout from global banks, is faced with a combination of demand deceleration (lower growth), higher funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreadsAs banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is not priced into valuations, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchisesWhile we hold our below-consensus growth forecasts, we are now equally conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: ‘Pause and Effect’ - interesting trade-offs ahead

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a>, the online banking arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, raised around US$630m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we have looked at various aspects of the deal. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and trading updates.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), raised around US$630m in its Japan IPO.
RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at various aspects of the deal. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and trading updates.


India

ICICI Bank Limited operates a network of banks located throughout India. The Group specializes in retail and corporate banking, in addition to Forex and treasury operations. ICICI Bank also provides a wide variety of investment banking, insurance and financial services to its clients.

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Icici Bank Ltd Spon Adr (IBN US)

HDFC/HDFCB Merger: Impact on Bank Nifty

The HDFC/HDFCB merger will result in a one-way turnover of around 8.4% for the Nifty Bank Index resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank

RIL’s consolidated EBITDA at INR 384bn (+23% YoY, +9% QoQ, HSIE: INR 378bn) and APAT at INR 193bn (+19% YoY, +22% QoQ), came in above our estimates

HDFC Securities

ICICI Bank Ltd. -Stellar Quarter, Growth Momentum to Sustain!

Retail loans (+23/5% YoY/QoQ), Business Banking portfolio (+35/8% YoY/QoQ), SME book (+19/6% YoY/QoQ) and Corporate Loans (+21/4% YoY/QoQ).

Axis Direct

Leveraged Financials: ‘Pause and Effect’ - interesting trade-offs ahead

As banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is not priced into valuations

HDFC Securities

Rakuten Bank IPO Trading - Ample Upside

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), raised around US$630m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

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