Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> targets a 2% return to the statistical mean reversion level. The pair has closely aligned fundamentals.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) vs. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) and short HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) targets a 2% return to the statistical mean reversion level. The pair has closely aligned fundamentals.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Long ICICI (ICICIBC IN) Vs. Short HDFC (HDFCB IN): Spread Trade in High-Profile Indian Bank Pair

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Growth visibility healthy; unsecured growth likely to pick up: The bank continues to remain comfortable with the loans underwritten and does not expect any specific caution to be exercised incrementally on the credit side.</li><li>The bank had tightened the credit filters in the Personal Loans (PL) and Credit Cards (CC) portfolio, which is reflected in the volumes.</li><li>Moreover, with the rate cut cycle beginning, the bank has been additionally disciplined on the spreads charged over the benchmark. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Growth visibility healthy; unsecured growth likely to pick up: The bank continues to remain comfortable with the loans underwritten and does not expect any specific caution to be exercised incrementally on the credit side.The bank had tightened the credit filters in the Personal Loans (PL) and Credit Cards (CC) portfolio, which is reflected in the volumes.Moreover, with the rate cut cycle beginning, the bank has been additionally disciplined on the spreads charged over the benchmark. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ICICI Bank Ltd. - Another Quarter of Steady Numbers; Steady Performance to Continue!

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>ICICI Bank has once again posted an endearing performance with in-line PAT at Rs118bn/superior RoA of 2.4%, system-beating credit growth at 14% YoY, nearly stable margins at 4.25%, and steady asset quality, amid tough times.</li><li>Deposit growth has moderated, but is well above the system’s at 14% YoY, exhibiting the bank’s strong liability franchisee built over the years.</li><li>Slippages are up QoQ at Rs61bn (lower than estimates) due to seasonal stress in Agri, including the KCC book, but retail asset quality stays at tolerable levels.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ICICI Bank has once again posted an endearing performance with in-line PAT at Rs118bn/superior RoA of 2.4%, system-beating credit growth at 14% YoY, nearly stable margins at 4.25%, and steady asset quality, amid tough times.Deposit growth has moderated, but is well above the system’s at 14% YoY, exhibiting the bank’s strong liability franchisee built over the years.Slippages are up QoQ at Rs61bn (lower than estimates) due to seasonal stress in Agri, including the KCC book, but retail asset quality stays at tolerable levels.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ICICI Bank - Endearing Performance in Tough Times

<ul><li>Growth visibility healthy: In Q3FY25, the bank witnessed a slight slowdown in retail loans, which grew by 11/1% YoY/QoQ.</li><li>This was owing to a marginal slowdown in the mortgage book due to pricing pressures.</li><li>The vehicle finance portfolio, primarily focused on financing new cars, has experienced a slowdown in its growth momentum. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Growth visibility healthy: In Q3FY25, the bank witnessed a slight slowdown in retail loans, which grew by 11/1% YoY/QoQ.This was owing to a marginal slowdown in the mortgage book due to pricing pressures.The vehicle finance portfolio, primarily focused on financing new cars, has experienced a slowdown in its growth momentum. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ICICI Bank Ltd - Strong Quarter; Remains Preferred Pick!

India

ICICI Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Bank offers saving accounts, loans, debit, credit cards, insurance, investments, mortgages, and online banking services. ICICI Bank serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)

Long ICICI (ICICIBC IN) Vs. Short HDFC (HDFCB IN): Spread Trade in High-Profile Indian Bank Pair

Potential statistical relative value opportunity based on mean-reversion between ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank, with the price ratio deviating...

Gaudenz Schneider

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

ICICI Bank Ltd. - Another Quarter of Steady Numbers; Steady Performance to Continue!

The bank continues to remain comfortable with the loans underwritten and does not expect any specific caution to be exercised incrementally on the...

Axis Direct

ICICI Bank - Endearing Performance in Tough Times

Deposit growth has moderated, but is well above the system’s at 14% YoY, exhibiting the bank’s strong liability franchisee built over the years.

Emkay

ICICI Bank Ltd - Strong Quarter; Remains Preferred Pick!

Growth visibility healthy: In Q3FY25, the bank witnessed a slight slowdown in retail loans, which grew by 11/1% YoY/QoQ.

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)