External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Reliance Industries: Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 2,860/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses; (2) continued EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams; and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses. </li><li>Gross slippages, at 2.9%, were elevated on account of the KCC portfolio, but were offset by higher recoveries, reflecting in negligible credit costs (adjusted for contingent provisions)</li><li>Despite a 54bps sequential reduction in the stressed pool (restructured portfolio at 0.8%, BB &amp; below portfolio at 1.9%), ICICIBC’s move to build up its contingent provisioning (+10bps) appears counter-intuitive and raises questions on the possibility of emerging risk markers in the portfolio</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Reliance Industries: Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 2,860/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses; (2) continued EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams; and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses. Gross slippages, at 2.9%, were elevated on account of the KCC portfolio, but were offset by higher recoveries, reflecting in negligible credit costs (adjusted for contingent provisions)Despite a 54bps sequential reduction in the stressed pool (restructured portfolio at 0.8%, BB &amp; below portfolio at 1.9%), ICICIBC’s move to build up its contingent provisioning (+10bps) appears counter-intuitive and raises questions on the possibility of emerging risk markers in the portfolioContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Persistent Systems

<ul><li>Havells India: Havells delivered a strong topline performance, led by broad-based growth across all categories, with a beat on our RAC and Switchgear estimates</li><li>Revenue grew by 16% on three-year CAGR (15% ex-Lloyd) while Lloyd business sustained 18% three-year revenue CAGR</li><li>All segments including Switchgear saw close to mid-teen three-year revenue CAGR</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Havells India: Havells delivered a strong topline performance, led by broad-based growth across all categories, with a beat on our RAC and Switchgear estimatesRevenue grew by 16% on three-year CAGR (15% ex-Lloyd) while Lloyd business sustained 18% three-year revenue CAGRAll segments including Switchgear saw close to mid-teen three-year revenue CAGRContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Havells India, JSW Energy, Kajaria Ceramics, ICICI Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

<div><ul><li>Treasury losses to dent earnings: While we expect NII growth to be strong (up 16.9% YoY for coverage banks), treasury losses could be a major drag on operating profit growth.</li><li><p>Systemic credit growth, provisional updates indicate optimism: As per RBI’s latest data, systemic credit growth rate is 12% YoY (June’22).</p></li><li><p><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">Large cap banks showing stronger traction than peers; housing doing well: We expect large cap coverage banks to continue to report higher growth (20.7% YoY) vis-à-vis mid/small-cap peers (16.9% YoY) and PSBs (15.5% YoY).</span></p></li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Treasury losses to dent earnings: While we expect NII growth to be strong (up 16.9% YoY for coverage banks), treasury losses could be a major drag on operating profit growth.Systemic credit growth, provisional updates indicate optimism: As per RBI’s latest data, systemic credit growth rate is 12% YoY (June’22).Large cap banks showing stronger traction than peers; housing doing well: We expect large cap coverage banks to continue to report higher growth (20.7% YoY) vis-à-vis mid/small-cap peers (16.9% YoY) and PSBs (15.5% YoY).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banking & Financials Sector - Weak Treasury to Dent Earnings

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Higher EBLR-linkage places the bank favorably: In the current increasing interest rate environment, ICICI Bank seems well placed given that its loan book has 48% linkage to EBLR compared to 22-46% for most other banks under our coverage.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Large Cap banks better placed to transmit systemic rate movements: We had outlined in our note that we see Large Cap banks being better placed in the current rising interest rate cycle given that they are more flexible, nimbler and overall better placed in terms of their ability to transmit systemic rate movements.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Expect well-rounded growth given bank’s strong market share: Overall, we expect system credit growth to be well-rounded. Retail growth is expected to be supported by increasing penetration across sub-segments such as mortgages and unsecured loans.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Higher EBLR-linkage places the bank favorably: In the current increasing interest rate environment, ICICI Bank seems well placed given that its loan book has 48% linkage to EBLR compared to 22-46% for most other banks under our coverage.Large Cap banks better placed to transmit systemic rate movements: We had outlined in our note that we see Large Cap banks being better placed in the current rising interest rate cycle given that they are more flexible, nimbler and overall better placed in terms of their ability to transmit systemic rate movements.Expect well-rounded growth given bank’s strong market share: Overall, we expect system credit growth to be well-rounded. Retail growth is expected to be supported by increasing penetration across sub-segments such as mortgages and unsecured loans.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<div><div><div><ul><li>Accelerated rate hike; more in the offing: In its response to a stubborn and elevated inflation print, the RBI has now effected an accelerated cumulative 90bps repo rate hike over the past few weeks.</li><li>Near-total pass-through a surprise; near-term margin-accretive: Unlike earlier up-cycles in the past, the sharp pace of rate normalisation is margin- accretive for banks in the near-term, especially given early-stage monetary transmission.</li></ul></div><div><div><div><ul><li>MCLR transmission to significantly lag EBLR transmission: At a system- wide level, ~20-30% of the aggregate loans are currently anchored to MCLR while 40% of the loans are anchored to EBLR.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Accelerated rate hike; more in the offing: In its response to a stubborn and elevated inflation print, the RBI has now effected an accelerated cumulative 90bps repo rate hike over the past few weeks.Near-total pass-through a surprise; near-term margin-accretive: Unlike earlier up-cycles in the past, the sharp pace of rate normalisation is margin- accretive for banks in the near-term, especially given early-stage monetary transmission.MCLR transmission to significantly lag EBLR transmission: At a system- wide level, ~20-30% of the aggregate loans are currently anchored to MCLR while 40% of the loans are anchored to EBLR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BFSI - Sector Update - New Normal Rate Cycle; Brace for Transmission Effects

India

ICICI Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Bank offers saving accounts, loans, debit, credit cards, insurance, investments, mortgages, and online banking services. ICICI Bank serves customers worldwide.

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ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Persistent Systems

Gross slippages, at 2.9%, were elevated on account of the KCC portfolio, but were offset by higher recoveries, reflecting in negligible credit...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Havells India, JSW Energy, Kajaria Ceramics, ICICI Securities

Havells India: Havells delivered a strong topline performance, led by broad-based growth across all categories, with a beat on our RAC and...

HDFC Securities

Banking & Financials Sector - Weak Treasury to Dent Earnings

We expect banks to report weak earnings due to treasury losses. We expect operating earnings of coverage banks to decline by 6.5% YoY and 11.2% QoQ...

Nirmal Bang

ICICI Bank - Best Placed

We reiterate ICICI Bank as our top pick in the banking space given the visibility of 2% ROA by FY24E on the back of 21% CAGR in net profit over...

Nirmal Bang

BFSI - Sector Update - New Normal Rate Cycle; Brace for Transmission Effects

Signalling its serious intent to rein in a galloping inflation, the RBI announced a 50bps repo rate hike in its monetary policy meeting

HDFC Securities

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