Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they <em>could</em> roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India's top private banks, HDFC, ICICI, and Axis, saw a significant slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25 from 15-20% of expectations, i.e down from 16.5% last year</li>
<li>This moderation is due to softer loan demand, strategic balance sheet adjustments, and HDFC's merger in it’s case.</li>
<li>Despite this, asset quality remains strong, and the banks are focused on building a solid deposit base for future growth.</li>
</ul>


India's top private banks, HDFC, ICICI, and Axis, saw a significant slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25 from 15-20% of expectations, i.e down from 16.5% last year
This moderation is due to softer loan demand, strategic balance sheet adjustments, and HDFC's merger in it’s case.
Despite this, asset quality remains strong, and the banks are focused on building a solid deposit base for future growth.


Thematic Report : Why Is India's Banking Witnessing a Slowdown in Credit Growth?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dorf-ketal-chemicals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44325:1" rel="noopener">Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd (998552Z IN)</a> (DKCI) is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>DKCI is an R&amp;D and innovation-focused global manufacturer and supplier of specialty chemicals, catering to hydrocarbons and industrial supply chains, and customers with diverse applications across various industrial segments.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd (998552Z IN) (DKCI) is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO.
DKCI is an R&amp;D and innovation-focused global manufacturer and supplier of specialty chemicals, catering to hydrocarbons and industrial supply chains, and customers with diverse applications across various industrial segments.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Elevated Borrowings and Tariff Uncertainty

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dorf-ketal-chemicals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44325:1" rel="noopener">Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd (998552Z IN)</a> (DKCI) is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>DKCI is an R&amp;D and innovation-focused global manufacturer and supplier of specialty chemicals, catering to hydrocarbons and industrial supply chains, and customers with diverse applications across various industrial segments.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd (998552Z IN) (DKCI) is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO.
DKCI is an R&amp;D and innovation-focused global manufacturer and supplier of specialty chemicals, catering to hydrocarbons and industrial supply chains, and customers with diverse applications across various industrial segments.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO -The Positives - Strategic Blend of Organic & Inorganic Expansion

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

India

ICICI Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Bank offers saving accounts, loans, debit, credit cards, insurance, investments, mortgages, and online banking services. ICICI Bank serves customers worldwide.

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ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Thematic Report : Why Is India's Banking Witnessing a Slowdown in Credit Growth?

India's top private banks experience slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25, down from expectations, due to softer loan demand and strategic...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Elevated Borrowings and Tariff Uncertainty

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of...

Akshat Shah

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO -The Positives - Strategic Blend of Organic & Inorganic Expansion

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Akshat Shah

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Thematic Report : Why Is India's Banking Witnessing a Slowdown in Credit Growth?

​India's top private banks experience slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25, down from expectations, due to softer loan demand and strategic...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Elevated Borrowings and Tariff Uncertainty

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of...

Akshat Shah

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO -The Positives - Strategic Blend of Organic & Inorganic Expansion

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Akshat Shah

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

India's top private banks experience slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25, down from expectations, due to softer loan demand and strategic...