Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> reported strong profits for 2QFY2022, with standalone net profits increasing by 30% YoY to Rs 55 bn., enthusing the market. The bank has been focusing on retail loans to drive its assets and profits, after heavily haemorrhaging on corporate loans prior to FY2020. The retail asset emphasis was expected to provide stability to the bank’s earnings. However, the broader economic slowdown, combined with the Covid-19 pandemic, has unmasked the supposed stability in the retail strategy. In some ways this is a mystery, as 55.3% of retail loans are mortgages, which are regarded as being very secure. It is surprising that the bank does not provide any details regarding the erratic retail performance, and does not attempt to educate investors on why a retail portfolio largely consisting of mortgages should perform in such an unpredictable manner </p><p>In 2QFY2022 ICICI Bank reported a YoY decline in retail Profit Before Tax (PBT) of 13.5% to Rs 26.1 bn (in 1QFY2022 Rs 3.9 bn), with retail loans of Rs 4,404 bn. Pertinently, the retail PBT in 1QFY2021 was Rs 27.6 bn with retail loans of Rs 3,449 bn. Even though retail loans since 1QFY2021 increased by 28%, the retail PBT in 2QFY2022 is still below the level of 1QFY2021. The bank’s overall domestic net interest margin in 2QFY2022 is higher than 1QFY2021 and 2QFY2021, which indicates that the performance was not impacted by a squeeze in margins but more likely by credit costs.</p><p>Shareholders in ICICI Bank should be concerned regarding the volatility in the bank’s retail PBT. It could be on account of an industry-wide impact on retail loans brought about by Covid19 which impacts quarterly performance, or it could be peculiar only to ICICI Bank’s retail loans. Whatever the reason, it reveals that a strategy of increasing retail loans, the bulk of which are mortgages, is not insulated against a broad economic downturn, and results in high volatility in performance. Whether this volatility is transitory or for the long term only time can tell.</p>

ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) reported strong profits for 2QFY2022, with standalone net profits increasing by 30% YoY to Rs 55 bn., enthusing the market. The bank has been focusing on retail loans to drive its assets and profits, after heavily haemorrhaging on corporate loans prior to FY2020. The retail asset emphasis was expected to provide stability to the bank’s earnings. However, the broader economic slowdown, combined with the Covid-19 pandemic, has unmasked the supposed stability in the retail strategy. In some ways this is a mystery, as 55.3% of retail loans are mortgages, which are regarded as being very secure. It is surprising that the bank does not provide any details regarding the erratic retail performance, and does not attempt to educate investors on why a retail portfolio largely consisting of mortgages should perform in such an unpredictable manner In 2QFY2022 ICICI Bank reported a YoY decline in retail Profit Before Tax (PBT) of 13.5% to Rs 26.1 bn (in 1QFY2022 Rs 3.9 bn), with retail loans of Rs 4,404 bn. Pertinently, the retail PBT in 1QFY2021 was Rs 27.6 bn with retail loans of Rs 3,449 bn. Even though retail loans since 1QFY2021 increased by 28%, the retail PBT in 2QFY2022 is still below the level of 1QFY2021. The bank’s overall domestic net interest margin in 2QFY2022 is higher than 1QFY2021 and 2QFY2021, which indicates that the performance was not impacted by a squeeze in margins but more likely by credit costs.Shareholders in ICICI Bank should be concerned regarding the volatility in the bank’s retail PBT. It could be on account of an industry-wide impact on retail loans brought about by Covid19 which impacts quarterly performance, or it could be peculiar only to ICICI Bank’s retail loans. Whatever the reason, it reveals that a strategy of increasing retail loans, the bulk of which are mortgages, is not insulated against a broad economic downturn, and results in high volatility in performance. Whether this volatility is transitory or for the long term only time can tell.

ICICI Bank’s Retail Loan Strategy: A Source of Stability or Volatility?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>PB Fintech (PBF), India’s largest online platform for insurance and lending products, aims to raise up to US$800m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its India IPO. The company is backed by a strong set of investors including Info Edge, Tencent, Temasek, Tiger Global and Softbank.</p><p>The company operates two platforms: Policybazaar operates in India’s online insurance product and service industry; and Paisabazaar platform operates in India’s online credit industry. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, the company is a leader in the online sphere in both segments. </p><p>Despite Paisabazaar having taken a hit due to COVID-19, the company has managed to grow its revenue by 80% over FY19-21. In addition, it has been able to rein in expenses as well leading to an improvement in margins. Although, it was still making losses in FY21.</p><p>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</p>

PB Fintech (PBF), India’s largest online platform for insurance and lending products, aims to raise up to US$800m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its India IPO. The company is backed by a strong set of investors including Info Edge, Tencent, Temasek, Tiger Global and Softbank.The company operates two platforms: Policybazaar operates in India’s online insurance product and service industry; and Paisabazaar platform operates in India’s online credit industry. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, the company is a leader in the online sphere in both segments. Despite Paisabazaar having taken a hit due to COVID-19, the company has managed to grow its revenue by 80% over FY19-21. In addition, it has been able to rein in expenses as well leading to an improvement in margins. Although, it was still making losses in FY21.In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

PB Fintech (Policybazaar) Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company’s (ABSL) shareholders raised around US$369m via reducing their stake in the company’s Indian IPO. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>ABSL is the largest non-bank affiliated asset management company (AMC) in India by quarterly average assets under management (QAAUM) and the fourth largest AMC in India. according to CRISIL. ABSL managed total AUM of INR2.9tn across mutual funds, portfolio management services, offshore and real estate offerings, as of Jun 21.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aditya-birla-sun-life-amc-pre-ipo-strong-profit-growth-but-it-s-losing-market-share" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Pre-IPO - Strong profit growth but it’s losing market share</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aditya-birla-sun-life-amc-ipo-at-a-slight-discount-but-there-s-no-compelling-reason-to-buy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC IPO - At a Slight Discount but There’s No Compelling Reason to Buy</a>.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.</p>
</div>


Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company’s (ABSL) shareholders raised around US$369m via reducing their stake in the company’s Indian IPO. 


ABSL is the largest non-bank affiliated asset management company (AMC) in India by quarterly average assets under management (QAAUM) and the fourth largest AMC in India. according to CRISIL. ABSL managed total AUM of INR2.9tn across mutual funds, portfolio management services, offshore and real estate offerings, as of Jun 21.


We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Pre-IPO - Strong profit growth but it’s losing market share and Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC IPO - At a Slight Discount but There’s No Compelling Reason to Buy.


In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.


Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC IPO Trading - Tepid Demand

<p>Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company’s (ABSL) shareholders aim to raise around US$369m via reducing their stake in the company’s Indian IPO. </p><p>ABSL is the largest non-bank affiliated asset management company (AMC) in India by quarterly average assets under management (QAAUM) and the fourth largest AMC in India. according to CRISIL.</p><p>ABSL managed total AUM of INR2.9tn across mutual funds, portfolio management services, offshore and real estate offerings, as of Jun 21.</p><p>ABSL enjoys a strong brand name in the country. However, unlike other AMC’s it lacks a strong parent, i.e. a bank for it to piggyback on its network. Therefore, the company has lagged its larger peers in terms of equity AUM exposure, which flows down to it having lower profitability as well.</p><p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aditya-birla-sun-life-amc-pre-ipo-strong-profit-growth-but-it-s-losing-market-share" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Pre-IPO - Strong profit growth but it’s losing market share</a>.</p><p>In this note, we will talk about valuations.</p><p><br><br></p>

Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company’s (ABSL) shareholders aim to raise around US$369m via reducing their stake in the company’s Indian IPO. ABSL is the largest non-bank affiliated asset management company (AMC) in India by quarterly average assets under management (QAAUM) and the fourth largest AMC in India. according to CRISIL.ABSL managed total AUM of INR2.9tn across mutual funds, portfolio management services, offshore and real estate offerings, as of Jun 21.ABSL enjoys a strong brand name in the country. However, unlike other AMC’s it lacks a strong parent, i.e. a bank for it to piggyback on its network. Therefore, the company has lagged its larger peers in terms of equity AUM exposure, which flows down to it having lower profitability as well.We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Pre-IPO - Strong profit growth but it’s losing market share.In this note, we will talk about valuations.  

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC IPO - At a Slight Discount but There’s No Compelling Reason to Buy

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We screen 7 Indian banks for their core profitability and their credit quality credentials, in order to identify banks that are good value and have potential to deliver higher returns going forward</li>
<li>We use a number of metrics including pre-provision and post-provision profit, cost of risk and credit quality, as well as capital adequacy ratios</li>
<li>We expect credit quality to continue to worsen in the coming quarters, especially as the moratorium on new NPL classification began to normalise as from April; yet we believe that certain Indian banks are well positioned and have already taken action to counter the threat of higher delinquencies, through cost of risk charges and write-offs</li>
<li>We highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> as a restructuring and earnings recovery story, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> for its high quality balance sheet and premium returns, which are not yet fully reflected in valuations; we also see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)</a> as an attractive value play, despite its lighter core capital ratio</li>
<li>We are cautious on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a>, seeing it as a potential value trap; at first look, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> looks appealing on prospective PBV ratio to ROE and high pre-provision returns but we are wary of its high share of micro-finance and SME credit risk exposure in the light of rising NPA ratios</li>
<li>Risks to our view include, for our bullish calls, worse than expected credit quality resulting in higher cost of risk, higher than expected opex and weak revenue generation; for our bear calls, better than expected revenues with lower than expected opex and cost of risk leading to higher post-provision returns</li>
</ul>


We screen 7 Indian banks for their core profitability and their credit quality credentials, in order to identify banks that are good value and have potential to deliver higher returns going forward
We use a number of metrics including pre-provision and post-provision profit, cost of risk and credit quality, as well as capital adequacy ratios
We expect credit quality to continue to worsen in the coming quarters, especially as the moratorium on new NPL classification began to normalise as from April; yet we believe that certain Indian banks are well positioned and have already taken action to counter the threat of higher delinquencies, through cost of risk charges and write-offs
We highlight Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) as a restructuring and earnings recovery story, and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) for its high quality balance sheet and premium returns, which are not yet fully reflected in valuations; we also see State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) as an attractive value play, despite its lighter core capital ratio
We are cautious on Canara Bank (CBK IN), seeing it as a potential value trap; at first look, Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) looks appealing on prospective PBV ratio to ROE and high pre-provision returns but we are wary of its high share of micro-finance and SME credit risk exposure in the light of rising NPA ratios
Risks to our view include, for our bullish calls, worse than expected credit quality resulting in higher cost of risk, higher than expected opex and weak revenue generation; for our bear calls, better than expected revenues with lower than expected opex and cost of risk leading to higher post-provision returns


Indian Banks; Screening for Investment Ideas, Despite the Credit Quality Hurdles

India

ICICI Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Bank offers saving accounts, loans, debit, credit cards, insurance, investments, mortgages, and online banking services. ICICI Bank serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)

ICICI Bank’s Retail Loan Strategy: A Source of Stability or Volatility?

It is possible that the revival in retail profits and profitability in 2QFY2022 may be sustained. However, if it continues to be volatile, ICICI...

Hemindra Hazari

PB Fintech (Policybazaar) Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth

PB Fintech (PBF), India’s largest online platform for insurance and lending products, aims to raise up to US$800m via selling a mix of primary and...

Sumeet Singh

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC IPO Trading - Tepid Demand

Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company’s (ABSL) shareholders raised around US$369m via reducing their stake in the company’s Indian IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC IPO - At a Slight Discount but There’s No Compelling Reason to Buy

Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company’s (ABSL) shareholders aim to raise around US$369m via reducing their stake in the company’s Indian IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Indian Banks; Screening for Investment Ideas, Despite the Credit Quality Hurdles

Screening for ideas, we are positive on Axis Bank and HDFC Bank, and State Bank of India too; due to credit quality concerns, we are cautious on...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)