Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Weakened Results: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB.IN) [KMB] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 18.5 bn, declining INR 3.3 bn (15.2%) linked quarter. Results were challenged by two factors: a) an INR 2.3 bn (62.5%) increase in loss provisions which still appears light given the continued and accelerated breakdown in credit quality; and b) an INR 1.9 bn (9.2%) increase in costs led by a 14.0% increase in other operating expenses; and*Credit Risks Substantially Increasing: While KMB’s metrics were not nearly as ugly as Yes Bank’s (YES.IN), KMB’s credit break is tracking the financial sector - which is not exhibiting any sign of recovery. By our calculation, we find that both net new NPLs and impaired loans increased excessively with annualized growth rates of 122.8% and 143.2%, respectively. Given the worsening of KMB’s credit metrics and current weak reserve cover, we find that reserves at FY 3Q21 fall short by INR 78 bn - about three quarter of stated PBT.

*Weakened Results: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB.IN) [KMB] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 18.5 bn, declining INR 3.3 bn (15.2%) linked quarter. Results were challenged by two factors: a) an INR 2.3 bn (62.5%) increase in loss provisions which still appears light given the continued and accelerated breakdown in credit quality; and b) an INR 1.9 bn (9.2%) increase in costs led by a 14.0% increase in other operating expenses; and*Credit Risks Substantially Increasing: While KMB’s metrics were not nearly as ugly as Yes Bank’s (YES.IN), KMB’s credit break is tracking the financial sector - which is not exhibiting any sign of recovery. By our calculation, we find that both net new NPLs and impaired loans increased excessively with annualized growth rates of 122.8% and 143.2%, respectively. Given the worsening of KMB’s credit metrics and current weak reserve cover, we find that reserves at FY 3Q21 fall short by INR 78 bn - about three quarter of stated PBT.

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Credit Falling Off Of A Cliff

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-prudential-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23608:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN)</a> (IPru Life) reporting improvement in long-term persistency ratios, there are worrying examples of brazen mis-selling of life insurance policies by the company through its corporate agent, Angel Financial Advisors and even its parent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a>. The cases of two 21-year old customers reveal the state of underwriting at IPru Life: <a href="https://youtu.be/Qjyb0jYyouo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sachin Khilari</a> (the first of three policies mis-sold to him commenced in October 2014) in Sangli district, Maharashtra and <a href="https://youtu.be/K15zslPNMpI" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Krishnapal Singh Chauhan</a> (who was sold his first policy in February 2019 and a further 10 in 12 months) in Banswara, Rajasthan, both highlighted by <a href="http://www.insuranceangels.in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insurance Angels</a>. These cases illustrate the mis-selling of policies by violation of rules; non-compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) to determine source of funds of the policy holder; non-verification of income of customers; alleged <a href="https://twitter.com/insuranceangel/status/1333003681592205313?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forging</a>  of the signatures of policy holders; inflating of policy holders’ income on the forms; and the sale of multiple policies to an individual, where the collective premium exceeds the annual income of the policyholder. Each customer in a financial services company has a unique customer id where her/his Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols, proof of individual income and financial products sold are mapped. When multiple policies are sold by an insurance company to a single individual, it would show up on the customer’s profile. Prior to approving any further policies the underwriting team would examine whether the customer’s income can service the insurance premiums, and approve the sale. What is extremely alarming in these mis-selling cases is that when additional policies were sold to both Khilari and Chauhan, where the collective annual premiums were more than their annual incomes, the underwriters were readily approving the policies without verifying their income. Such professional misconduct completely exposes the underwriting system at IPru Life. The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI), the regulator, and stakeholders in the company need to critically evaluate how such cases are bypassing IPru Life’s underwriting system.With such poor underwriting and basic protocol systems it is no surprise that ICICI Bank, IPru Life’s parent, has discontinued selling traditional life insurance policies for the last couple of years, even those of its subsidiary where senior ICICI Bank officials are deputed as CEOs. Anup Bagchi, executive director, ICICI Bank and non-executive director (nominated by ICICI Bank), ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, has gone on <a href="https://www.icicibank.com/managed-assets/docs/investor/quarterly-financial-results/2021/ICICI-Bank-Transcript-for-Analyst-Call-held-on-Oct-31-2020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">record</a> on his apprehension that the low long-term persistency ratios in the industry could have an adverse impact on their own bank customers. That a parent company which has firm control on senior executive management at its subsidiary declines to sell the subsidiary’s traditional life insurance products, as it cannot ensure near 100% long-term persistency ratio, speaks volume of IPru Life’s capabilities.It is time stakeholders and the regulator look beyond the neat and tidy persistency ratios and closely evaluate individual customer mis-selling complaints to understand how life insurance is actually mis-sold on the ground to unsuspecting customers and how underwriting is done by companies like IPru Life.

Despite ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN) (IPru Life) reporting improvement in long-term persistency ratios, there are worrying examples of brazen mis-selling of life insurance policies by the company through its corporate agent, Angel Financial Advisors and even its parent, ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN). The cases of two 21-year old customers reveal the state of underwriting at IPru Life: Sachin Khilari (the first of three policies mis-sold to him commenced in October 2014) in Sangli district, Maharashtra and Krishnapal Singh Chauhan (who was sold his first policy in February 2019 and a further 10 in 12 months) in Banswara, Rajasthan, both highlighted by Insurance Angels. These cases illustrate the mis-selling of policies by violation of rules; non-compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) to determine source of funds of the policy holder; non-verification of income of customers; alleged forging  of the signatures of policy holders; inflating of policy holders’ income on the forms; and the sale of multiple policies to an individual, where the collective premium exceeds the annual income of the policyholder. Each customer in a financial services company has a unique customer id where her/his Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols, proof of individual income and financial products sold are mapped. When multiple policies are sold by an insurance company to a single individual, it would show up on the customer’s profile. Prior to approving any further policies the underwriting team would examine whether the customer’s income can service the insurance premiums, and approve the sale. What is extremely alarming in these mis-selling cases is that when additional policies were sold to both Khilari and Chauhan, where the collective annual premiums were more than their annual incomes, the underwriters were readily approving the policies without verifying their income. Such professional misconduct completely exposes the underwriting system at IPru Life. The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI), the regulator, and stakeholders in the company need to critically evaluate how such cases are bypassing IPru Life’s underwriting system.With such poor underwriting and basic protocol systems it is no surprise that ICICI Bank, IPru Life’s parent, has discontinued selling traditional life insurance policies for the last couple of years, even those of its subsidiary where senior ICICI Bank officials are deputed as CEOs. Anup Bagchi, executive director, ICICI Bank and non-executive director (nominated by ICICI Bank), ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, has gone on record on his apprehension that the low long-term persistency ratios in the industry could have an adverse impact on their own bank customers. That a parent company which has firm control on senior executive management at its subsidiary declines to sell the subsidiary’s traditional life insurance products, as it cannot ensure near 100% long-term persistency ratio, speaks volume of IPru Life’s capabilities.It is time stakeholders and the regulator look beyond the neat and tidy persistency ratios and closely evaluate individual customer mis-selling complaints to understand how life insurance is actually mis-sold on the ground to unsuspecting customers and how underwriting is done by companies like IPru Life.

Brazen Mis-Selling by IPru Life: When Even the Parent Keeps a Distance, Something Surely Stinks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

SBI Life Insurance Co Ltd / Index Rebalance

Last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices <a href="https://www.niftyindices.com/Press_Release/ind_prs20082020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the results of the September index review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>. The rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 24 September and passive funds will need to trade at the close (VWAP over the last 30 minutes of trading) on the day.There were three candidates eligible for inclusion and exclusion but the IMSC picked just two: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/divi-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4871:1" rel="noopener">Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25899:1" rel="noopener">SBI Life Insurance (SBILIFE IN)</a> were included, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-infratel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8922:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Infratel (BHIN IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zee-entertainment-enterprises-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19466:1" rel="noopener">Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN)</a> were excluded.In terms of ADV to trade, the biggest impact is on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25899:1" rel="noopener">SBI Life Insurance (SBILIFE IN)</a> followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-infratel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8922:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Infratel (BHIN IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/divi-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4871:1" rel="noopener">Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN)</a>.These changes are in addition to the adhoc change last month where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)</a> was added and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> was excluded following the delisting proposal for Vedanta.

Last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices announced the results of the September index review for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX). The rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 24 September and passive funds will need to trade at the close (VWAP over the last 30 minutes of trading) on the day.There were three candidates eligible for inclusion and exclusion but the IMSC picked just two: Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN) and SBI Life Insurance (SBILIFE IN) were included, while Bharti Infratel (BHIN IN) and Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN) were excluded.In terms of ADV to trade, the biggest impact is on SBI Life Insurance (SBILIFE IN) followed by Bharti Infratel (BHIN IN) and Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN).These changes are in addition to the adhoc change last month where HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN) was added and Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) was excluded following the delisting proposal for Vedanta.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance - SBI Life Could Outperform on Index Inclusion

On 2 July, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices Limited made an ad-hoc change to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> excluding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> and including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)</a> with effect from the close of business on 30 July to coincide with the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) expiry.The change was made due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a>'s proposed voluntary delisting and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)</a> was the highest ranked non-constituent eligible for inclusion in the index.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)</a> has rallied 34% from our first <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nifty50-rebalance-preview-early-trade-ideas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insight</a> on its potential inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> at the September index review and has outperformed its peers over the period. With the stock now trading expensive relative to its peers, we recommend using the passive flow at the close tomorrow, which we estimate at around 20m shares to buy, to switch out of the stock and into its peers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25899:1" rel="noopener">SBI Life Insurance (SBILIFE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-prudential-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23608:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN)</a>.

On 2 July, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices Limited made an ad-hoc change to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) excluding Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) and including HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN) with effect from the close of business on 30 July to coincide with the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) expiry.The change was made due to Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)'s proposed voluntary delisting and HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN) was the highest ranked non-constituent eligible for inclusion in the index.HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN) has rallied 34% from our first Insight on its potential inclusion in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) at the September index review and has outperformed its peers over the period. With the stock now trading expensive relative to its peers, we recommend using the passive flow at the close tomorrow, which we estimate at around 20m shares to buy, to switch out of the stock and into its peers SBI Life Insurance (SBILIFE IN) and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN).

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance - HDFC Life at All Time High On Inclusion, Time to Switch

Late last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices Limited made an ad-hoc change to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> excluding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> and including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)</a> with effect from the close of business on 30 July to coincide with the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) expiry.The change was brought about by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a>'s proposed voluntary delisting which we have written about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-ltd-opportunistic-move-to-go-private" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-ltd-roadmap-to-the-potential-delisting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> was flagged as a potential delete in our earlier Insights on the upcoming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> rebalance in September and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)</a> was the highest ranked stock eligible to join the index. We had also raised the possibility of the change being made earlier than the scheduled rebalance.With this change, we expect three changes in the next regular rebalance in September. We expect the inclusions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25899:1" rel="noopener">SBI Life Insurance (SBILIFE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/divi-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4871:1" rel="noopener">Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)</a> while the three lowest ranked stocks by average free float market cap and at risk of exclusion are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zee-entertainment-enterprises-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19466:1" rel="noopener">Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-infratel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8922:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Infratel (BHIN IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gail-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15263:1" rel="noopener">Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN)</a>.We estimate around 2.1 days of ADV to sell on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> and 3.8 days of ADV to buy on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)</a>. Given the proposed voluntary delisting of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a>, we don't anticipate the stock to be unduly affected by the rebalance with special situations investors buying the dips in anticipation of tendering their shares at a higher price in the Reverse Book Building process.

Late last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices Limited made an ad-hoc change to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) excluding Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) and including HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN) with effect from the close of business on 30 July to coincide with the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) expiry.The change was brought about by Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)'s proposed voluntary delisting which we have written about here and here. Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) was flagged as a potential delete in our earlier Insights on the upcoming NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) rebalance in September and HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN) was the highest ranked stock eligible to join the index. We had also raised the possibility of the change being made earlier than the scheduled rebalance.With this change, we expect three changes in the next regular rebalance in September. We expect the inclusions of SBI Life Insurance (SBILIFE IN), Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN) and Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) while the three lowest ranked stocks by average free float market cap and at risk of exclusion are Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN), Bharti Infratel (BHIN IN) and Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN).We estimate around 2.1 days of ADV to sell on Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) and 3.8 days of ADV to buy on HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN). Given the proposed voluntary delisting of Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN), we don't anticipate the stock to be unduly affected by the rebalance with special situations investors buying the dips in anticipation of tendering their shares at a higher price in the Reverse Book Building process.

NIFTY50 Ad-Hoc Index Rebalance: Vedanta Out, HDFC Life In

India

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited of India provides life insurance services. The Company offers claim processing, electronic insurance accounts, and other services. ICICI Prudential Life Insurance conducts its business in India.

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN)

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ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN)

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Credit Falling Off Of A Cliff

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK: KMB reported FY 3Q21 linked quarter results decline of 15.2%, driven primarily by a 62.5% increase in provisions which still...

Thomas J. Monaco

Brazen Mis-Selling by IPru Life: When Even the Parent Keeps a Distance, Something Surely Stinks

Stakeholders need to look beyond the persistency ratios and evaluate individual customer mis-selling complaints to evaluate the state of...

Hemindra Hazari

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance - SBI Life Could Outperform on Index Inclusion

Last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices announced the results of the September index review for the NIFTY Index...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance - HDFC Life at All Time High On Inclusion, Time to Switch

On 2 July, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices Limited made an ad-hoc change to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY50 Ad-Hoc Index Rebalance: Vedanta Out, HDFC Life In

Late last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices Limited made an ad-hoc change to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)...

Brian Freitas

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