Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Shell's Pearl GTL plant halted after an 18 March attack — removing a major source of global Group III shipments with restart timeline unclear</li><li>US January Group III imports surged from the Middle East before war disrupted shipment flows — Middle East arrivals now set to drop sharply in April</li><li>South Korea February exports fell to a nine-month low before the Middle East conflict disrupted flows across key markets — curtailing shipments to the Middle East and boosting the need for alternative shipments to the US</li></ul>

Shell's Pearl GTL plant halted after an 18 March attack — removing a major source of global Group III shipments with restart timeline unclearUS January Group III imports surged from the Middle East before war disrupted shipment flows — Middle East arrivals now set to drop sharply in AprilSouth Korea February exports fell to a nine-month low before the Middle East conflict disrupted flows across key markets — curtailing shipments to the Middle East and boosting the need for alternative shipments to the US

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 20 Mar '26

<ul><li>Wave of Group II cargoes load from Taiwan in past week before heading to China.</li><li>Several more shipments were set to load from Taiwan in the coming days, pointing to a marked rise in total cargo loadings in March.</li><li>The pick-up in shipments in March mirrored a similar trend in Singapore, despite the prospect of lower output.</li></ul>

Wave of Group II cargoes load from Taiwan in past week before heading to China.Several more shipments were set to load from Taiwan in the coming days, pointing to a marked rise in total cargo loadings in March.The pick-up in shipments in March mirrored a similar trend in Singapore, despite the prospect of lower output.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 20 March

<ul><li>Global base oil supply exceeded demand by the smallest December margin in three years, leaving the market with less buffer as Middle East disruption spreads</li><li>Global supply reached a four-year high in 2025, but expectations of a 2026 surplus have reversed as the conflict disrupts shipments and threatens output</li><li>China’s elevated February output cushions the market against supply shocks, but lower Group III production leaves that segment tighter</li></ul>

Global base oil supply exceeded demand by the smallest December margin in three years, leaving the market with less buffer as Middle East disruption spreadsGlobal supply reached a four-year high in 2025, but expectations of a 2026 surplus have reversed as the conflict disrupts shipments and threatens outputChina’s elevated February output cushions the market against supply shocks, but lower Group III production leaves that segment tighter

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 13 Mar '26

<ul><li>Large Group II cargo with combination of light and heavy grades set to load from Taiwan this week, with India the likely destination.</li><li>Cargo loadings from Taiwan show signs of rising so far in March vs February, but remain well below December and January levels.</li><li>Cargo of Group III base oils loaded from Indonesia in early-March before heading to Europe, set to arrive around mid-April.</li></ul>

Large Group II cargo with combination of light and heavy grades set to load from Taiwan this week, with India the likely destination.Cargo loadings from Taiwan show signs of rising so far in March vs February, but remain well below December and January levels.Cargo of Group III base oils loaded from Indonesia in early-March before heading to Europe, set to arrive around mid-April.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 13 March

Japan

Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. explores, imports, refines, and distributes petroleum and its related products.  The Company also manufactures and sells petrochemical products.

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Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 20 Mar '26

Shell's Pearl GTL plant halted after an 18 March attack — removing a major source of global Group III shipments with restart timeline...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 20 March

Wave of Group II cargoes load from Taiwan in past week before heading to China. Several more shipments were set to load from Taiwan in the coming...

Base Oil News

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 13 Mar '26

Global base oil supply exceeded demand by the smallest December margin in three years, leaving the market with less buffer as Middle East...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 13 March

Large Group II cargo with combination of light and heavy grades set to load from Taiwan this week, with India the likely destination. Cargo...

Base Oil News

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