Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB IN)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long Yes Bank (YES IN) and short IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB IN) targets a 6% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Yes Bank (YES IN) vs. IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB IN) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long Yes Bank (YES IN) and short IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB IN) targets a 6% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Long Yes Bank (YES IN) Vs. Short IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB IN): Quant-Driven Pair Trade Targeting 6%

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

IDFC First Bank Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>H2 Credit Costs to Improve Led by MFI Recovery: IDFCFB continued to report elevated credit costs on the back of persistent stress in the MFI pool, seasonal weakness seen in Q1 and on account of one large corporate account (ATM service provider) slipping into NPA.</li><li>The management expects the MFI stress to subside over the coming quarters, driving credit costs lower.</li><li>Currently, the bank does not expect any meaningful stress to flow from any particular segment, especially MSME. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

H2 Credit Costs to Improve Led by MFI Recovery: IDFCFB continued to report elevated credit costs on the back of persistent stress in the MFI pool, seasonal weakness seen in Q1 and on account of one large corporate account (ATM service provider) slipping into NPA.The management expects the MFI stress to subside over the coming quarters, driving credit costs lower.Currently, the bank does not expect any meaningful stress to flow from any particular segment, especially MSME. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDFC First Bank Ltd - NIMs to Bottom-Out in Q2; Credit Cost Outlook Favourable!

<ul><li>Asset Quality in MFI on the mend: The bank has seen a gradual recovery in collection efficiency (CE) over Q4FY25, which bounced back to 99.2% (~99.4% ex-Karnataka) vs. 96.9% in Dec’24.</li><li>Moreover, the bank has seen a significant reduction in SMA pool in absolute terms (% SMA continued to increase on a de-growing portfolio), indicating lower incremental stress formation.</li><li>Thus, the management has indicated that the credit costs in the MFI portfolio have peaked out and should recede from Q1FY26. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asset Quality in MFI on the mend: The bank has seen a gradual recovery in collection efficiency (CE) over Q4FY25, which bounced back to 99.2% (~99.4% ex-Karnataka) vs. 96.9% in Dec’24.Moreover, the bank has seen a significant reduction in SMA pool in absolute terms (% SMA continued to increase on a de-growing portfolio), indicating lower incremental stress formation.Thus, the management has indicated that the credit costs in the MFI portfolio have peaked out and should recede from Q1FY26. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Punch: IDFC First Bank Ltd - 02nd July, 2025

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

IDFC First Bank Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)</a> plans to launch a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of up to INR30bn (US$362m) in Oct 23, as per media reports. </li>
<li>On 22nd Sep 23, IFR had reported that IDFC First Bank is looking to launch a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) to raise up to INR30bn (US$362m) in Oct 23. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN) plans to launch a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of up to INR30bn (US$362m) in Oct 23, as per media reports. 
On 22nd Sep 23, IFR had reported that IDFC First Bank is looking to launch a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) to raise up to INR30bn (US$362m) in Oct 23. 
In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.


IDFC First Bank Early Look - Likely to Be an Accretive Deal but Not Particularly Cheap

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Recently awarded "Maharatna" status, only 12 companies, FY24 is first full year for this</li>
<li>Growth is steady, with good returns, and major improvement in credit metrics</li>
<li>Its 4.77% dividend yield is incredibly high and about 3x higher than peers</li>
</ul>


Recently awarded "Maharatna" status, only 12 companies, FY24 is first full year for this
Growth is steady, with good returns, and major improvement in credit metrics
Its 4.77% dividend yield is incredibly high and about 3x higher than peers


RECL - Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield

India

IDFC First Bank Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers fixed deposits, debit cards, savings account, cash management, and other services. IDFC Bank serves its customers in India.

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IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCFB IN)

Long Yes Bank (YES IN) Vs. Short IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB IN): Quant-Driven Pair Trade Targeting 6%

Pair trade with a 6% target-return amid significant deviation of the price ratio between Yes Bank vs. IDFC First Bank. Opportunity for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

IDFC First Bank Ltd - NIMs to Bottom-Out in Q2; Credit Cost Outlook Favourable!

The management does not expect any negative surprises on the asset quality and has guided for credit costs to be contained at 2-2.05% in FY26 and...

Axis Direct

Axis Punch: IDFC First Bank Ltd - 02nd July, 2025

Asset Quality in MFI on the mend: The bank has seen a gradual recovery in collection efficiency (CE) over Q4FY25, which bounced back to 99.2%...

Axis Direct

IDFC First Bank Early Look - Likely to Be an Accretive Deal but Not Particularly Cheap

IDFC First Bank has launched its QIP at an issue price of INR 90.25 (4.14% discount to the 3rd Oct 23 close price and 4.95% discount to the floor...

Ethan Aw

RECL - Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield

High demand for power related lending can last for decades, marked improvement in credit metrics, new Maharatna status (only 12 companies have...

Daniel Tabbush

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