Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> part-time chairman Mr. Atanu Chakraborty resigned citing ethical misalignment, signalling deeper governance concerns rather than a routine leadership transition.</li>
<li>Persistent whistle-blower complaints and past control issues highlight a recurring pattern of operational and cultural strain within the bank.</li>
<li>Alongside past governance failures at ICICI Bank and Yes Bank, this signals a structural erosion of the trust premium in private sector banking, not an isolated incident.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) part-time chairman Mr. Atanu Chakraborty resigned citing ethical misalignment, signalling deeper governance concerns rather than a routine leadership transition.
Persistent whistle-blower complaints and past control issues highlight a recurring pattern of operational and cultural strain within the bank.
Alongside past governance failures at ICICI Bank and Yes Bank, this signals a structural erosion of the trust premium in private sector banking, not an isolated incident.


HDFC Bank Chairman Exit- Trust Deficit Becomes a New Risk in Private Banking

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India is set for its biggest GST overhaul since 2017, with a shift to a dual-slab GST system (5% and 18%) to simplify tax structures, reduce consumer prices, boost consumption</li>
<li>The proposed rate cuts are likely to drive increased consumption, benefiting sectors like automobiles, cement, and consumer durables, and provide a multi-engine growth boost for the economy.</li>
<li>With the GST reform potentially lowering inflation, raising private sector investments, and stimulating discretionary spending, we see a positive impact on GDP growth by around 1.6-2% in the medium term.</li>
</ul>


India is set for its biggest GST overhaul since 2017, with a shift to a dual-slab GST system (5% and 18%) to simplify tax structures, reduce consumer prices, boost consumption
The proposed rate cuts are likely to drive increased consumption, benefiting sectors like automobiles, cement, and consumer durables, and provide a multi-engine growth boost for the economy.
With the GST reform potentially lowering inflation, raising private sector investments, and stimulating discretionary spending, we see a positive impact on GDP growth by around 1.6-2% in the medium term.


Thematic Report: Can Proposed GST Rate Cuts Revive Consumption Growth in India?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

<ul>
<li>The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.</li>
<li>This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.</li>
<li>This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). </li>
</ul>


The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.
This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.
This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). 


Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

<ul>
<li>Indian banks' average Net Interest Margins fell 21 basis points in FY25, projected to decline another 9 basis points in FY2026 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition pressures.  </li>
<li>Robust credit growth continues while deposit growth lags increasing funding costs. Nonperforming Assets for public and private banks are projected to stabilize or decline.  </li>
<li>Contracting margins squeeze core income, public banks may see profit decline FY26 despite stable asset quality aiding earnings.</li>
</ul>


Indian banks' average Net Interest Margins fell 21 basis points in FY25, projected to decline another 9 basis points in FY2026 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition pressures.  
Robust credit growth continues while deposit growth lags increasing funding costs. Nonperforming Assets for public and private banks are projected to stabilize or decline.  
Contracting margins squeeze core income, public banks may see profit decline FY26 despite stable asset quality aiding earnings.


Impact Of Contracting NIM On Indian Banks Earnings

India

IDFC First Bank is an Indian private sector universal bank offering a comprehensive suite of products and services across retail, MSME, rural, startups, corporate banking, cash management, credit cards, and wealth management. The bank provides savings and current accounts, fixed deposits, various loans, and investment solutions. It is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in October 2015.

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IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB IN)

HDFC Bank Chairman Exit- Trust Deficit Becomes a New Risk in Private Banking

Resignation of HDFC Bank's part-time chairman due to ethical misalignment highlights a pattern of strain within the bank and signaling a broader...

Nitin Mangal

Thematic Report: Can Proposed GST Rate Cuts Revive Consumption Growth in India?

India is revamping its GST system with dual-slab rates to simplify taxes, reduce prices, and boost consumption, potentially driving GDP growth by...

Nimish Maheshwari

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

Impact Of Contracting NIM On Indian Banks Earnings

Indian banks face declining Net Interest Margins in FY25 and FY26 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition, impacting profit despite stable...

Nimish Maheshwari

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HDFC Bank Chairman Exit- Trust Deficit Becomes a New Risk in Private Banking

​Resignation of HDFC Bank's part-time chairman due to ethical misalignment highlights a pattern of strain within the bank and signaling a broader...

Nitin Mangal

Thematic Report: Can Proposed GST Rate Cuts Revive Consumption Growth in India?

​India is revamping its GST system with dual-slab rates to simplify taxes, reduce prices, and boost consumption, potentially driving GDP growth by...

Nimish Maheshwari

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

​Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

Impact Of Contracting NIM On Indian Banks Earnings

​Indian banks face declining Net Interest Margins in FY25 and FY26 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition, impacting profit despite stable...

Nimish Maheshwari

Resignation of HDFC Bank's part-time chairman due to ethical misalignment highlights a pattern of strain within the bank and signaling a broader...

India is revamping its GST system with dual-slab rates to simplify taxes, reduce prices, and boost consumption, potentially driving GDP growth by...

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Indian banks face declining Net Interest Margins in FY25 and FY26 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition, impacting profit despite stable...