Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q results supported management's full-year sales and profit guidance, which remains unchanged. Operating profit was up 2.7x YoY on a 17% increase in sales.</li>
<li>Total new orders received increased by only 4.2% YoY and fell short of sales, but Aerospace &amp; Defense orders were up 35.5% and slightly exceeded sales.</li>
<li>Our own forecast - above management's guidance this year with further growth next year - and our share price target are unchanged. 21% potential upside.</li>
</ul>


1Q results supported management's full-year sales and profit guidance, which remains unchanged. Operating profit was up 2.7x YoY on a 17% increase in sales.
Total new orders received increased by only 4.2% YoY and fell short of sales, but Aerospace &amp; Defense orders were up 35.5% and slightly exceeded sales.
Our own forecast - above management's guidance this year with further growth next year - and our share price target are unchanged. 21% potential upside.


IHI (7013 JP): Buy Back in for Post-Crash Recovery

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>CoSAI is a collaboration between tech giants like Intel, Google, and IBM to drive innovation in the automotive industry.</li><li>Knobs and buttons are making a comeback in car interfaces, reflecting a trend in automotive design for more tactile controls.</li><li>Apple opposes Tata-Vivo partnership as Vivo marks its 10th anniversary in India, while Biden admin shows support for CHIPS Act to boost packaging and testing industry.</li></ul>

CoSAI is a collaboration between tech giants like Intel, Google, and IBM to drive innovation in the automotive industry.Knobs and buttons are making a comeback in car interfaces, reflecting a trend in automotive design for more tactile controls.Apple opposes Tata-Vivo partnership as Vivo marks its 10th anniversary in India, while Biden admin shows support for CHIPS Act to boost packaging and testing industry.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2024): Top tech firms join CoSAI.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.</li>
<li>In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.</li>
<li>This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

<ul>
<li>Japan's rising defense budget and military collaboration with the US and Europe should support a high level of orders for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Defense is the growth driver, but other divisions should hold up well due to the ongoing rationalization of operations.</li>
<li>Profits should rebound this year and rise further in FY Mar-26, bringing the P/E down to 9X or less. The weak yen is a large positive. </li>
</ul>


Japan's rising defense budget and military collaboration with the US and Europe should support a high level of orders for the foreseeable future.
Defense is the growth driver, but other divisions should hold up well due to the ongoing rationalization of operations.
Profits should rebound this year and rise further in FY Mar-26, bringing the P/E down to 9X or less. The weak yen is a large positive. 


IHI (7013 JP): 30% Upside Potential as Aerospace and Defense Rebound

Japan

IHI Corporation manufactures heavy machinery. The Company produces aircraft jet engines, rocket propulsion systems, and ships for military and commercial use. Ishikawajima-Harima also constructs petroleum refineries and nuclear power plants.

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IHI Corp (7013 JP)

IHI (7013 JP): Buy Back in for Post-Crash Recovery

IHI hit our ¥6,000 price target in July and should hit it again now that the volatile response to the BOJ rate hike is behind us. 1Q results...

Scott Foster

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2024): Top tech firms join CoSAI.

CoSAI partners with tech giants, car interfaces embrace knobs, Apple opposes Tata-Vivo, Biden supports CHIPS Act, Micron ships 9th-gen NAND, Taiwan...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

IHI (7013 JP): 30% Upside Potential as Aerospace and Defense Rebound

IHI is a relatively cheap defense contractor that stands to benefit from Japan's rising defense budget. Sales and profits should rebound this year...

Scott Foster

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