Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei was down -3.4% over the past week (-4.3% YTD); the yen was flat at ¥142/$ (-24.1% YTD)</li>
<li>Shares of travel and tourism related companies advanced on hopes for a rebound in inbound tourism as Japan aims to ease travel restrictions in October</li>
<li>Shares of IHI slumped 9% in the week. We are interested in the energy segment that is geared to nuclear re-starts and longer-term, ammonia. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei was down -3.4% over the past week (-4.3% YTD); the yen was flat at ¥142/$ (-24.1% YTD)
Shares of travel and tourism related companies advanced on hopes for a rebound in inbound tourism as Japan aims to ease travel restrictions in October
Shares of IHI slumped 9% in the week. We are interested in the energy segment that is geared to nuclear re-starts and longer-term, ammonia. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IHI likely to benefit from rising defense spending as events in Ukraine serve as a wake up call to a Japan already worried about North Korea and China.</li>
<li>Japan's top maker of jet engines and solid-fuel rockets. Also geared to the recovery of commercial air traffic and auto production, and to carbon neutral technologies. </li>
<li>Sales and profit recovery underway. 60% upside to 15x FY Mar-24 EPS estimate. </li>
</ul>


IHI likely to benefit from rising defense spending as events in Ukraine serve as a wake up call to a Japan already worried about North Korea and China.
Japan's top maker of jet engines and solid-fuel rockets. Also geared to the recovery of commercial air traffic and auto production, and to carbon neutral technologies. 
Sales and profit recovery underway. 60% upside to 15x FY Mar-24 EPS estimate. 


IHI (7013 JP): Ukraine Puts the Spotlight on Japanese Defense Contractors

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

On 13th May, Small-cap Electronic and communications technology firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meisei-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18137:1" rel="noopener">Meisei Electric (6709 JP)</a> announced they had agreed to merge with their parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4819:1" rel="noopener">IHI Corp (7013 JP)</a> which will result in Meisei getting delisted from the Second Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Meisei shareholders will receive 0.42 IHI shares per Meisei share. The Meisei Shareholder meeting for approving the Deal is expected to be on 23rd June 2021 and the Merger is expected to become effective on 1st August 2021. Below a discussion of the details and the 'consequences'.

On 13th May, Small-cap Electronic and communications technology firm Meisei Electric (6709 JP) announced they had agreed to merge with their parent IHI Corp (7013 JP) which will result in Meisei getting delisted from the Second Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Meisei shareholders will receive 0.42 IHI shares per Meisei share. The Meisei Shareholder meeting for approving the Deal is expected to be on 23rd June 2021 and the Merger is expected to become effective on 1st August 2021. Below a discussion of the details and the 'consequences'.

Meisei (6709 JP) - IHI (7013 JP): Small Merger with Minor Additional Consequences

Japan

IHI Corporation manufactures heavy machinery. The Company produces aircraft jet engines, rocket propulsion systems, and ships for military and commercial use. Ishikawajima-Harima also constructs petroleum refineries and nuclear power plants.

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IHI Corp (7013 JP)

Japan Weekly | JR East, Matsukiyo, IHI

Stocks in Japan are benefiting from continued expectations for a loosening of inbound tourist restrictions. Meanwhile, the drop in IHI could be an...

Mark Chadwick

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

IHI (7013 JP): Ukraine Puts the Spotlight on Japanese Defense Contractors

Geared to anticipated growth ofJapanese defense spending through fighter jet engines and missile defense. Other businesses rebounding from COVID. P...

Scott Foster

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Today we highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our...

Vermilion Research

Meisei (6709 JP) - IHI (7013 JP): Small Merger with Minor Additional Consequences

IHI is absorbing Meisei Electric 9 years after taking a majority. This looks reasonable, it is very short-dated. It is a rate-of-return deal with...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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