ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again).</li>
<li>Global reflation trade over next few months is likely to continue.</li>
<li>Prime beneficiaries of global reflation trade in Asian market are financial, commodity, and infrastructure plays.</li>
</ul>We were watching live (on TV) US President Trump's speech, which was addressed to the Congress last night (9 pm EST). This was the first formal speech by Trump after his inauguration speech on 1/20. Our first…


There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again).
Global reflation trade over next few months is likely to continue.
Prime beneficiaries of global reflation trade in Asian market are financial, commodity, and infrastructure plays.
We were watching live (on TV) US President Trump's speech, which was addressed to the Congress last night (9 pm EST). This was the first formal speech by Trump after his inauguration speech on 1/20. Our first…

Asia Market Strategy: Is There No Stopping This Bull Run?

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return <ul><li>Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return in our first year out. The model portfolio markedly outperformed the benchmark indices, BISHIPGP Index (Bloomberg Intelligence Marine Shipping Index, 14%) and MSCI World Index(19%) by a big margin. </li><li>For 2017, lowering allocation to dry bulk stocks; increasing weightage on container trade. We have reduced our allocation to the dry bulk segment to 31% from 42%. The value play is over in our view and we believe stocks could be at the risk of “too soon too fast” in the near term. Conversely, we believe that the worst is over for the container shipping and we see higher returns for the sector in 2017-18. We have increased the allocation to the sector from 8% to 27%. The port sector is another major constituent of our model portfolio for 2017 as world trade recovery gathers steam and earnings remain resilient for our portfolio constituents. </li><li>We are Neutral on gas shipping as we believe the stocks are trading in a fair territory, while we maintain our Unattractive stance on tankers. </li></ul>

DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return in our first year out. The model portfolio markedly outperformed the benchmark indices, BISHIPGP Index (Bloomberg Intelligence Marine Shipping Index, 14%) and MSCI World Index(19%) by a big margin. For 2017, lowering allocation to dry bulk stocks; increasing weightage on container trade. We have reduced our allocation to the dry bulk segment to 31% from 42%. The value play is over in our view and we believe stocks could be at the risk of “too soon too fast” in the near term. Conversely, we believe that the worst is over for the container shipping and we see higher returns for the sector in 2017-18. We have increased the allocation to the sector from 8% to 27%. The port sector is another major constituent of our model portfolio for 2017 as world trade recovery gathers steam and earnings remain resilient for our portfolio constituents. We are Neutral on gas shipping as we believe the stocks are trading in a fair territory, while we maintain our Unattractive stance on tankers. 

DFRS Maritime Model Portfolio - 1 Year Performance with 38% Return

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

At the beginning of the year, I wrote a piece called <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baltic-dry-it-s-that-time-of-year-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7951">Baltic Dry - It’s That Time of Year Again</a> suggesting...<blockquote>
Looking back at the first graph tells you so. Historically, we'd expect to trend downward from here. The last ten years have an average and median drop in the BDIY of 27% in the last 18 days of the Chinese Lunar New Year. 
It should not be a surprise to see such a move in the next 18 trading days. 
Likewise, it would not be a surprise to see a bounce afterward. 
</blockquote>That insight suggested that…

At the beginning of the year, I wrote a piece called Baltic Dry - It’s That Time of Year Again suggesting...
Looking back at the first graph tells you so. Historically, we'd expect to trend downward from here. The last ten years have an average and median drop in the BDIY of 27% in the last 18 days of the Chinese Lunar New Year. 
It should not be a surprise to see such a move in the next 18 trading days. 
Likewise, it would not be a surprise to see a bounce afterward. 
That insight suggested that…

Baltic Dry - Post CNY Bounce Pattern Intact (& Soybean Season Ahead)

China’s Ban on North Korean Coal Imports to Aid Sea Borne Trade News over the weekend that China will stop importing coal from North Korea will be both short-medium term positive for seaborne coal demand and in turn support the dry bulk market. Please see Douglas Kim's take to understand the politics behind the decision. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/no-coal-exports-from-north-korea-to-china-in-2017-turning-off-the-money-spigot-to-north-korea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8882">No Coal Exports from North Korea to China in 2017 - Turning Off the Money Spigot to North Korea?</a>After the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution to toughen…

China’s Ban on North Korean Coal Imports to Aid Sea Borne Trade News over the weekend that China will stop importing coal from North Korea will be both short-medium term positive for seaborne coal demand and in turn support the dry bulk market. Please see Douglas Kim's take to understand the politics behind the decision. No Coal Exports from North Korea to China in 2017 - Turning Off the Money Spigot to North Korea?After the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution to toughen…

China's Ban on North Korean Coal Imports to Aid Sea Borne Trade

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Assistant Professor at The Wharton School, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Dr Arthur van Benthem

Assistant Professor at The Wharton School

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/282/original/Donald_Trump_Signs_The_Pledge_13.jpg?1487645410" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="21282"></figure>Though the travel ban received considerably more attention, another recent Trump administration executive order should also be the target of nationwide street protests.The order is meant to slash "unnecessary" regulations. President Trump's proposal is quite simple. For every new regulation, knock out two others. And require each regulatory agency to offset the full economic cost of its new regulation by revoking existing rules. According to Trump, the order will fix this problem: it has become…

Though the travel ban received considerably more attention, another recent Trump administration executive order should also be the target of nationwide street protests.The order is meant to slash "unnecessary" regulations. President Trump's proposal is quite simple. For every new regulation, knock out two others. And require each regulatory agency to offset the full economic cost of its new regulation by revoking existing rules. According to Trump, the order will fix this problem: it has become…

The Flawed Logic of Trump's Order on Regulations

United States

Illinois Tool Works Inc. designs and manufactures fasteners and components, equipment and consumable systems, and a variety of specialty products and equipment.  The Company's products include industrial fluids and adhesives, tooling for specialty applications, welding products, and quality measurement equipment and systems.  Illinois Tool Works operates worldwide.

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Illinois Tool Works (ITW US)

Asia Market Strategy: Is There No Stopping This Bull Run?

There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again). Global reflation trade over next few...

Johannes Salim, CFA

DFRS Maritime Model Portfolio - 1 Year Performance with 38% Return

DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Baltic Dry - Post CNY Bounce Pattern Intact (& Soybean Season Ahead)

At the beginning of the year, I wrote a piece called Baltic Dry - It’s That Time of Year Again suggesting... Looking back at the first graph tells...

Travis Lundy

China's Ban on North Korean Coal Imports to Aid Sea Borne Trade

China’s Ban on North Korean Coal Imports to Aid Sea Borne Trade News over the weekend that China will stop importing coal from North Korea will be...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

The Flawed Logic of Trump's Order on Regulations

Though the travel ban received considerably more attention, another recent Trump administration executive order should also be the target of...

Dr Arthur van Benthem

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