Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

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Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>European markets turned negative as sentiment following the US trade tariiff deal moved to 'not great' from 'better than expected'.</li><li> The Nasdaq edged to a new high, but enthusiasm across the board was weak.</li><li> ASX futures are suggesting a soft start as Australia and other countries remain in the US line of sight for blanket 15%-20% tariffs.</li></ul>

European markets turned negative as sentiment following the US trade tariiff deal moved to 'not great' from 'better than expected'. The Nasdaq edged to a new high, but enthusiasm across the board was weak. ASX futures are suggesting a soft start as Australia and other countries remain in the US line of sight for blanket 15%-20% tariffs.

Imdex Ltd - The Overnight Report: Tariff Reality Bites

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> has suffered a continuous sell-off for the past 3 weeks. The index is deeply oversold, our model predicts an imminent reversal.</li>
<li>The reversal could lift the index to the 8091-8208 price area, but the index may start to fall again after that.</li>
<li>As posted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> there has been 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> (index rebalance), read his insight for further details on this.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has suffered a continuous sell-off for the past 3 weeks. The index is deeply oversold, our model predicts an imminent reversal.
The reversal could lift the index to the 8091-8208 price area, but the index may start to fall again after that.
As posted by Brian Freitas there has been 7 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (index rebalance), read his insight for further details on this.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 Index</a> and 11 adds/ 7 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>There is a huge increase in the number of index shares for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, triggering passive buying of nearly A$1.4bn at the close on 21 March.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices. Positioning varies across stocks and there could be some big movers over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 7 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 Index and 11 adds/ 7 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
There is a huge increase in the number of index shares for Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), triggering passive buying of nearly A$1.4bn at the close on 21 March.
The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices. Positioning varies across stocks and there could be some big movers over the next few days.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see eight ADDs and six DELs for ASX 300.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 7th March 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see eight ADDs and six DELs for ASX 300.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 7th March 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Final Expectations; Momentum Still Intact

<ul>
<li>Nearing a few days left in the review period, there could be 39 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300.</li>
<li>Except for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> that is heavily tracked, the performance of the forecast changes to the other indices has been very stable with adds outperforming deletes bigly.</li>
</ul>


Nearing a few days left in the review period, there could be 39 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and S&amp;P/ASX 300.
Except for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) that is heavily tracked, the performance of the forecast changes to the other indices has been very stable with adds outperforming deletes bigly.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly

Australia

Imdex Ltd operates as a mining equipment, technology, and services company. The Company provides drilling fluids and down hole instrumentation to mining, oil and gas, water well, and civil engineering industries worldwide.

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Imdex Ltd (IMD AU)

Imdex Ltd - The Overnight Report: Tariff Reality Bites

European markets turned negative as sentiment following the US trade tariiff deal moved to 'not great' from 'better than expected'. The Nasdaq...

FNArena

S&P/ASX 200 Index Outlook Post-Rebalance

The recently rebalanced ASX 200 index is in oversold territory. Our model predicts an imminent reversal and relief rally to the 8091-8208 range,...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

There are 40 constituent changes across the indices. SIG is an add to 2 indices and also an upweight in 2 others - so big buying. The adds have...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Final Expectations; Momentum Still Intact

The reference period for ASX Mar25 review rankings ended last week. All expected ADDs and DELs mentioned in this insight are our final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly

There could be 39 changes for the S&P/ASX family in March. The forecast adds continue to outperform the forecast deletes in all indices. Huge...

Brian Freitas

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Imdex Ltd - The Overnight Report: Tariff Reality Bites

European markets turned negative as sentiment following the US trade tariiff deal moved to 'not great' from 'better than expected'. The Nasdaq...

FNArena

S&P/ASX 200 Index Outlook Post-Rebalance

The recently rebalanced ASX 200 index is in oversold territory. Our model predicts an imminent reversal and relief rally to the 8091-8208 range,...

Nico Rosti

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

There are 40 constituent changes across the indices. SIG is an add to 2 indices and also an upweight in 2 others - so big buying. The adds have...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Final Expectations; Momentum Still Intact

The reference period for ASX Mar25 review rankings ended last week. All expected ADDs and DELs mentioned in this insight are our final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly

There could be 39 changes for the S&P/ASX family in March. The forecast adds continue to outperform the forecast deletes in all indices. Huge...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly