Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monadelphous-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:553:1" rel="noopener">Monadelphous (MND AU)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P ASX 200 Index on 16 December 2022.</li>
<li>This is not a surprise. It has been the lead contender for a December ADD slot since the day after the September rebalance was completed (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-quiddity-leaderboard-dec-22-top-ranked-asx200-adds-look-interesting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>).</li>
<li>There is a fair bit of volume to buy, and there are pair trades to do.</li>
</ul>



Monadelphous (MND AU) will be added to the S&amp;P ASX 200 Index on 16 December 2022.
This is not a surprise. It has been the lead contender for a December ADD slot since the day after the September rebalance was completed (see here).
There is a fair bit of volume to buy, and there are pair trades to do.


Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD - There's a Trade Here

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.</li>
<li>If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.
If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

<ul>
<li>With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.</li>
<li>The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.</li>
</ul>


With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.
The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/redox-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39847:1" rel="noopener">Redox (RDX AU)</a>, a chemical and ingredients distributor, raised US$270m in its IPO in Jun 2023. Some of its founding family shareholders will be released from their IPO lockup soon.</li>
<li>Redox primarily serves the ANZ market, and it has a presence in Malaysia and the US. It is one of the largest chemicals and ingredients distributors in Australia.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Redox (RDX AU), a chemical and ingredients distributor, raised US$270m in its IPO in Jun 2023. Some of its founding family shareholders will be released from their IPO lockup soon.
Redox primarily serves the ANZ market, and it has a presence in Malaysia and the US. It is one of the largest chemicals and ingredients distributors in Australia.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Redox IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Limited Liquidity Might Provide a Good Excuse to Sell

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 29th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Brambles, Bellevue Gold, Domino's Pizza.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 29th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Brambles, Bellevue Gold, Domino's Pizza.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 29th): Brambles, Bellevue Gold, Domino's Pizza

Australia

Incitec Pivot Limited is a fertilizer manufacturer and supplier, and also a supplier for explosives products and services. The Company has operations throughout the United States, Canada, Mexico and Australia.

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Incitec Pivot (IPL AU)

Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD - There's a Trade Here

Mining services company Monadelphous (MND AU) is the S&P ASX 200 ADD, as expected. There should be 4.8mm shares to buy - 12+ days of ADV. There's a...

Travis Lundy

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

There could be 5 changes for the index in March. A few more names are close deletes. SIG's inclusion will add to passive inflows while MIN's...

Brian Freitas

Redox IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Limited Liquidity Might Provide a Good Excuse to Sell

Redox (RDX AU), a chemical and ingredients distributor, raised US$270m in its IPO in Jun 2023. Some of its founding family shareholders will be...

Sumeet Singh

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 29th): Brambles, Bellevue Gold, Domino's Pizza

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Brambles, Bellevue Gold, Domino's Pizza.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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