Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The overvaluation or undervaluation of China core assets cannot be explained solely by valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF etc., but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by them.</li>
<li>The so-called policy, strategic, and systemic importance are playing increasingly important role in stock picking process. It's not wise to just analyze it from bottom-up perspective without considering top-down perspective.</li>
<li>There’s no eternal,universal,absolute truth in this world. We’re in the midst of a "unprecedented upheaval in a century".It's time to change mindset so investors don't miss the next valuation takeoff.</li>
</ul>


The overvaluation or undervaluation of China core assets cannot be explained solely by valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF etc., but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by them.
The so-called policy, strategic, and systemic importance are playing increasingly important role in stock picking process. It's not wise to just analyze it from bottom-up perspective without considering top-down perspective.
There’s no eternal,universal,absolute truth in this world. We’re in the midst of a "unprecedented upheaval in a century".It's time to change mindset so investors don't miss the next valuation takeoff.


Valuation System with Chinese Characteristics – the Correct Interpretation and Its Deep Meaning

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Soccer / In Depth: Scandal-ridden Chinese soccer gets in foul trouble again</li><li>Law / China grants authorities more powers to fight spies</li><li>Covid-19 / Major Covid outbreak ‘unlikely’ in near term, expert says</li></ul>

Soccer / In Depth: Scandal-ridden Chinese soccer gets in foul trouble againLaw / China grants authorities more powers to fight spiesCovid-19 / Major Covid outbreak ‘unlikely’ in near term, expert says

CX Daily: Scandal-Ridden Chinese Soccer Gets in Foul Trouble Again

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Allocations in China &amp; HK Banks are at depressed levels. The percentage of funds with exposure has fallen from a high of 78% in 2011 to just 58.2% today.</li>
<li>More funds have exposure to Mexico, Brazil and Indonesian Banks.  Versus benchmark, China Banks are the 2nd largest Bank country underweight.</li>
<li>For the major stocks in the sector, we see a picture of low positioning and declining sentiment.  </li>
</ul>


Allocations in China &amp; HK Banks are at depressed levels. The percentage of funds with exposure has fallen from a high of 78% in 2011 to just 58.2% today.
More funds have exposure to Mexico, Brazil and Indonesian Banks.  Versus benchmark, China Banks are the 2nd largest Bank country underweight.
For the major stocks in the sector, we see a picture of low positioning and declining sentiment.  


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 31st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in CCB, Tencent, Alibaba, China Mobile, Yofc, Smic, Zijin Gold Intl.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 31st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in CCB, Tencent, Alibaba, China Mobile, Yofc, Smic, Zijin Gold Intl.


HK Short Interest Weekly: CCB, Tencent, Alibaba, China Mobile, Yofc, Smic, Zijin Gold Intl

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd provides a broad range of personal and corporate commercial banking services all over China.  The Bank's businesses include deposit, loan, credit card, fund underwriting and trust, and foreign currency settlement and trading.

Price Gauge
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Ind & Comm Bk Of China (A) (601398 CH)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Valuation System with Chinese Characteristics – the Correct Interpretation and Its Deep Meaning

Many investors do not have a deep understanding of the "valuation system with Chinese characteristics". It is necessary to provide some...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CX Daily: Scandal-Ridden Chinese Soccer Gets in Foul Trouble Again

In Depth: Scandal-ridden Chinese soccer gets in foul trouble again. China grants authorities more powers to fight spies. Major Covid outbreak...

Caixin Global

China & HK Banks: Optimism Fading

EM Funds show declining appetite for China & HK Banks exposure as positioning slumps to all-time lows. Mexico, India and Indonesia remain favoured...

Steven Holden

HK Short Interest Weekly: CCB, Tencent, Alibaba, China Mobile, Yofc, Smic, Zijin Gold Intl

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 31st and highlight short interest changes in CCB, Tencent, Alibaba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)