Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dayamitra-telekomunikasi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Dayamitra Telekomunikasi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a>.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement (INTP IJ)</a> is trading close to 2-year lows, which seems unjustified given the ongoing recovery and a more positive outlook for FY2024. </li>
<li>The company continues to grow its distribution reach to satisfy demand from IKN in Kalimantan, smelters in Sulawesi, and East Indonesia, with acquired Semen Grobogan feeding Central Java. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement (INTP IJ)</a> continues to build on its sustainable credentials through the use of alternative fuels and reducing emissions and dust. Valauations are attractive trading on 6.8x FY2024E EV/EBITDA.</li>
</ul>



Indocement (INTP IJ) is trading close to 2-year lows, which seems unjustified given the ongoing recovery and a more positive outlook for FY2024. 
The company continues to grow its distribution reach to satisfy demand from IKN in Kalimantan, smelters in Sulawesi, and East Indonesia, with acquired Semen Grobogan feeding Central Java. 

Indocement (INTP IJ) continues to build on its sustainable credentials through the use of alternative fuels and reducing emissions and dust. Valauations are attractive trading on 6.8x FY2024E EV/EBITDA.


Indocement Tunggal (INTP IJ) - A More Sustainable Cement Player

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement</a> overperformed the overall Indonesian cement market in 1Q2023 in terms of growth, especially in the bulk market, where it also benefited from the contribution from its Maros plant. </li>
<li>The company kept costs under control with 100% use of DMO coal during 1Q2023 despite the lower use of alternative fuels due to heavy rains and margins consequently improved. </li>
<li>There is still some lingering cost pressure from gypsum and kraft paper but these are expected to subside by 2H2023, with Indocement's volumes expected to increase +15-20% as demand recovers.</li>
</ul>



Indocement overperformed the overall Indonesian cement market in 1Q2023 in terms of growth, especially in the bulk market, where it also benefited from the contribution from its Maros plant. 
The company kept costs under control with 100% use of DMO coal during 1Q2023 despite the lower use of alternative fuels due to heavy rains and margins consequently improved. 
There is still some lingering cost pressure from gypsum and kraft paper but these are expected to subside by 2H2023, with Indocement's volumes expected to increase +15-20% as demand recovers.


Indonesia

PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk is one of Indonesia's leading producers of quality cement and specialty cement products, marketed under the brand name "Tiga Roda" and "Semen Rajawali". The company also operates subsidiaries that produce ready-mix concrete, aggregates, and trass. Indocement was established in 1975 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in April. The potential adds have traded in line with the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Indocement Tunggal (INTP IJ) - A More Sustainable Cement Player

Indocement (INTP IJ) is trading close to 2-year lows, which seems unjustified given the ongoing recovery and a more positive outlook for FY2024.

Angus Mackintosh

Indocement (INTP IJ) - A Bulky Take Off

Indocement overperformed the overall Indonesian cement market in 1Q2023 in terms of growth, especially in the bulk market. 2H2023 is expected to...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in April. The potential adds have traded in line with the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Indocement Tunggal (INTP IJ) - A More Sustainable Cement Player

Indocement (INTP IJ) is trading close to 2-year lows, which seems unjustified given the ongoing recovery and a more positive outlook for FY2024.

Angus Mackintosh

Indocement (INTP IJ) - A Bulky Take Off

Indocement overperformed the overall Indonesian cement market in 1Q2023 in terms of growth, especially in the bulk market. 2H2023 is expected to...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation