IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eagle-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31217:1" rel="noopener">Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)</a>/ECC’s selling shareholders (88.50% of the outstanding shares) have signed a SPA to sell their stake to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/san-miguel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22728:1" rel="noopener">San Miguel (SMC PM)</a> at PHP22.02 per share.</li>
<li>Post-Completion of the SPA, San Miguel will be required to launch a mandatory tender offer to acquire the remaining 11.50% minority shares at PHP22.02 per share. </li>
<li>As the regulator previously viewed San Miguel and ECC as part of the same group, regulatory approval should be forthcoming. At the last close, the gross spread is 14.1%.</li>
</ul>



Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)/ECC’s selling shareholders (88.50% of the outstanding shares) have signed a SPA to sell their stake to San Miguel (SMC PM) at PHP22.02 per share.
Post-Completion of the SPA, San Miguel will be required to launch a mandatory tender offer to acquire the remaining 11.50% minority shares at PHP22.02 per share. 
As the regulator previously viewed San Miguel and ECC as part of the same group, regulatory approval should be forthcoming. At the last close, the gross spread is 14.1%.


Eagle Cement’s Potential MTO of PHP22.02 from San Miguel

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa / Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight">
<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Given we are now coming out of Indonesia's latest wave of COVID-19 and mobility and economic activity is resuming , we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> as an interesting proxy for the recovery, given its exposure to West Java, infrastructure spending, and the recovering residential property market </span></p>
</div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</span></a><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> released a solid set of 1H2021 results, with an increase in revenue of +8.0% YoY on the back of an increase in cement volume.  </span><span data-preserver-spaces="true">EBITDA margins improved from 15.5% to 19.2% due to savings in operating expenses and gains in other operating income, leading to an EBITDA increase of +33.6% YoY to IDR1,280.6bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></span><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> </span></p>
<section class="figure">One major cost pressure comes from rising coal prices, which have increased significantly over the past year and the company has been continually both increasing its usage of low calorific coal and alternative fuels over the past 5-years to offset this.</section>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure>
</section>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> has a strong focus on improving its emissions, with assistance from the Heidelberg Cement Technology Centre, with a road map in place for energy efficiency and CO2 reductions.</p>
<p>The fact that around 78% of cement sales at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> is in bags makes branding all the more important and as a result the company is quite focused on promoting the brand through TV and social media channels.</p>
<section class="figure">The company continues with its digitalisation and has developed a fully digitalised ordering system with real time data which helps the company's sales to achieve better results both on ordering as well as on pricing.</section>
<section class="figure"></section>
<section class="figure"></section>
<section class="figure"></section>
<section class="figure"></section>
<section class="figure"></section>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> estimates that national cement domestic growth will increase by +5% for FY2021 with the resumption of more infrastructure projects and private projects in 2H2021 plus more activity in residential property.</p>
<p>The company's expansion will be focused on expanding its distribution channels through possible new terminals and barge or vessel ownership, as well as potentially exploring M&amp;A opportunities. </p>
<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> trades on 11.1x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 9.9x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 15x, making the company look attractive from a valuation perspective. </span></p>


Given we are now coming out of Indonesia's latest wave of COVID-19 and mobility and economic activity is resuming , we see Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) as an interesting proxy for the recovery, given its exposure to West Java, infrastructure spending, and the recovering residential property market 

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) released a solid set of 1H2021 results, with an increase in revenue of +8.0% YoY on the back of an increase in cement volume.  EBITDA margins improved from 15.5% to 19.2% due to savings in operating expenses and gains in other operating income, leading to an EBITDA increase of +33.6% YoY to IDR1,280.6bn.  
One major cost pressure comes from rising coal prices, which have increased significantly over the past year and the company has been continually both increasing its usage of low calorific coal and alternative fuels over the past 5-years to offset this.



Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) has a strong focus on improving its emissions, with assistance from the Heidelberg Cement Technology Centre, with a road map in place for energy efficiency and CO2 reductions.
The fact that around 78% of cement sales at Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) is in bags makes branding all the more important and as a result the company is quite focused on promoting the brand through TV and social media channels.
The company continues with its digitalisation and has developed a fully digitalised ordering system with real time data which helps the company's sales to achieve better results both on ordering as well as on pricing.





Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) estimates that national cement domestic growth will increase by +5% for FY2021 with the resumption of more infrastructure projects and private projects in 2H2021 plus more activity in residential property.
The company's expansion will be focused on expanding its distribution channels through possible new terminals and barge or vessel ownership, as well as potentially exploring M&amp;A opportunities. 
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) trades on 11.1x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 9.9x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 15x, making the company look attractive from a valuation perspective. 

Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP IJ) - Bulky Recovery in Place

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.</p><p>The IDX has announced the changes to the LQ45 Index as a part of the August review. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a> have been added to the index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-pensiunan-nasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27088:1" rel="noopener">Bank BTPN Syariah (BTPS IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)</a> have been deleted from the index.</p><p>We expect the impact of passive funds (and active funds) will be quite high on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bit-digital-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31155:1" rel="noopener">Bit Digital (BTBT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)</a> and significantly lower on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a>.</p><p>The changes are effective after the close of trading on 30 July, so there are only 4 trading days before passive funds have to rebalance their portfolios. Active funds benchmarked to the LQ45 index will also trade over the next few days so as not to deviate too far from their benchmark.</p>

The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.The IDX has announced the changes to the LQ45 Index as a part of the August review. Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ) and Timah Persero (TINS IJ) have been added to the index while Bank BTPN Syariah (BTPS IJ) and Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) have been deleted from the index.We expect the impact of passive funds (and active funds) will be quite high on Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ), Bit Digital (BTBT US) and Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) and significantly lower on Timah Persero (TINS IJ).The changes are effective after the close of trading on 30 July, so there are only 4 trading days before passive funds have to rebalance their portfolios. Active funds benchmarked to the LQ45 index will also trade over the next few days so as not to deviate too far from their benchmark.

LQ45 Index Rebalance: BRPT, TINS In; BTPS, CTRA Out

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</span></a><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> released results last week with an -11%  decrease in sales to IDR 14,184.3bn but only a -1.6% decrease in net profit to IDR1,803.3bn, with a number of cost reduction initiatives baring fruit in 2020 and we see these initiative continuing into 2021 on top of higher sales.</span></p><p><span data-preserver-spaces="true">The company saw resilient performance last year from its bag cement sales but bulk cement demand suffered as infrastructure projects stalled but we expect this situation to reverse this year.</span></p><p><span data-preserver-spaces="true">The cost of revenues decreased last year due to lower volumes and continuous savings on fuel and power with lower coal prices but with greater use of LCV coal, alternative fuels, and other operational cost savings, plus the ongoing digitalization at the company. </span></p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> will continue to push these cost initiatives in 2021, with the potential to further increase the use of LCV coal and alternative fuels.</p><p>The company has seen a slow start to the year due to heavy rains but we should expect a strong rebound from April onwards as projects get underway.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> continues to improve its sustainability credentials with lower emissions and new environmentally friendly products. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> trades on 13.2x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 12.0x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average of 14.4x forward EV/EBITDA, making the company look relatively attractive from a valuation standpoint.</p>

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) released results last week with an -11%  decrease in sales to IDR 14,184.3bn but only a -1.6% decrease in net profit to IDR1,803.3bn, with a number of cost reduction initiatives baring fruit in 2020 and we see these initiative continuing into 2021 on top of higher sales.The company saw resilient performance last year from its bag cement sales but bulk cement demand suffered as infrastructure projects stalled but we expect this situation to reverse this year.The cost of revenues decreased last year due to lower volumes and continuous savings on fuel and power with lower coal prices but with greater use of LCV coal, alternative fuels, and other operational cost savings, plus the ongoing digitalization at the company. Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) will continue to push these cost initiatives in 2021, with the potential to further increase the use of LCV coal and alternative fuels.The company has seen a slow start to the year due to heavy rains but we should expect a strong rebound from April onwards as projects get underway.Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) continues to improve its sustainability credentials with lower emissions and new environmentally friendly products. Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) trades on 13.2x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 12.0x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average of 14.4x forward EV/EBITDA, making the company look relatively attractive from a valuation standpoint.

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) - Bunkering Down for a Better Year

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

<p>Currently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a> debt to equity is at 2.5x, a five-year high and its earnings multiple is also at the 5 years high at 35x. Some of the bullishness comes from the creation of the INA, the first sovereign wealth fund of Indonesia that will create another funding avenue for Jasa Marga. </p><p>The commencement of vaccination for public servants and elderlies has also sparked positivity although the result (more traffic) is yet to be seen. At the current level, Jasa Marga's profitability is 28% lower than the peers despite almost having a 100% higher D/E ratio. It is also trading at 64% PER premium and 10% PBR premium. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/999/original/image_59574917191615277295474.png?1615277295" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192999"></figure><div class="content-remarks"><p>source: Capital IQ</p></div><p>At the current level, investors should wait before adding more Jasa Marga into the portfolio as it is trading at 5 years high in PER and also its D/E ratio as well. </p>

Currently, Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ) debt to equity is at 2.5x, a five-year high and its earnings multiple is also at the 5 years high at 35x. Some of the bullishness comes from the creation of the INA, the first sovereign wealth fund of Indonesia that will create another funding avenue for Jasa Marga. The commencement of vaccination for public servants and elderlies has also sparked positivity although the result (more traffic) is yet to be seen. At the current level, Jasa Marga's profitability is 28% lower than the peers despite almost having a 100% higher D/E ratio. It is also trading at 64% PER premium and 10% PBR premium. source: Capital IQAt the current level, investors should wait before adding more Jasa Marga into the portfolio as it is trading at 5 years high in PER and also its D/E ratio as well. 

Jasa Marga (JSMR): High Debt and Fully Valued

Indonesia

PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk is one of Indonesia's leading producers of quality cement and specialty cement products, marketed under the brand name "Tiga Roda" and "Semen Rajawali". The company also operates subsidiaries that produce ready-mix concrete, aggregates, and trass. Indocement was established in 1975 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)

Eagle Cement’s Potential MTO of PHP22.02 from San Miguel

The regulator should approve as it previously considered San Miguel and ECC as part of the same group. Timing is the key risk. At the last close,...

Arun George

Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP IJ) - Bulky Recovery in Place

We see Indocement as an interesting and high-quality proxy to the recovery in the Indonesian economy, given its exposure to infrastructure through...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance: BRPT, TINS In; BTPS, CTRA Out

The LQ45 rebalance will be implemented at the close on 30 July. BRPT & TINS have been included, replacing BTPS & CTRA. There is a large impact on...

Brian Freitas