Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dayamitra-telekomunikasi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Dayamitra Telekomunikasi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a>.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect cement sales volume to grow by 2.3% yoy in FY25, with flattish bag cement growth and moderating bulk growth to 8% yoy.</li><li>We expect blended ASP hike of 0.5-1%, with improvement in bag pricing (+0.5%-1% yoy) to be offset by a higher bulk ratio and fighting brand.</li><li>Maintain Neutral rating on the sector on lack of meaningful growth catalysts, despite recovery traction. Our top pick remains INTP.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect cement sales volume to grow by 2.3% yoy in FY25, with flattish bag cement growth and moderating bulk growth to 8% yoy.We expect blended ASP hike of 0.5-1%, with improvement in bag pricing (+0.5%-1% yoy) to be offset by a higher bulk ratio and fighting brand.Maintain Neutral rating on the sector on lack of meaningful growth catalysts, despite recovery traction. Our top pick remains INTP.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement: FY25 Outlook: Limited Growth Catalysts Despite Undemanding Valuation (NEUTRAL)

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings (GRAB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avarga-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13105:1" rel="noopener">Avarga Ltd (AVARGA SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jollibee-foods-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:987:1" rel="noopener">Jollibee Foods (JFC PM)</a>. </li>
<li>There were also insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a> plus commentary in the AI push from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Grab Holdings (GRAB US), Sea Ltd (SE US), Avarga Ltd (AVARGA SP), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Jollibee Foods (JFC PM). 
There were also insights on Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) and Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) plus commentary in the AI push from Indosat and GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ).
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab's High-Value Boost, Sea's Shopee in Profit, and Keepers

Equity Bottom-Up

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>INTP recorded an in line 9M24 net profit (66%/68% of our/consensus est), driven by cost efficiency despite lower ASP on a qoq basis.</li><li>We revised up our FY24-FY26F EPS by 0%-2.5%, driven by cost efficiency, esp. on energy cost and transportation, despite lower ASP.</li><li>We reiterate our BUY rating for INTP with a TP of Rp8,800. Semen Merdeka’ pricing is a catalyst to be observed in determining ASP trend.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INTP recorded an in line 9M24 net profit (66%/68% of our/consensus est), driven by cost efficiency despite lower ASP on a qoq basis.We revised up our FY24-FY26F EPS by 0%-2.5%, driven by cost efficiency, esp. on energy cost and transportation, despite lower ASP.We reiterate our BUY rating for INTP with a TP of Rp8,800. Semen Merdeka’ pricing is a catalyst to be observed in determining ASP trend.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INTP IJ - Finetuning FY24-25 Est. On Lower ASP yet Higher Opex Efficiency

Indonesia

PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk manufactures cement and building materials. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures and processes ready-mix cement as well as owns and manages properties and hotels.

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Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Cement: FY25 Outlook: Limited Growth Catalysts Despite Undemanding Valuation (NEUTRAL)

We expect cement sales volume to grow by 2.3% yoy in FY25, with flattish bag cement growth and moderating bulk growth to 8% yoy.

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab's High-Value Boost, Sea's Shopee in Profit, and Keepers

The past week saw insights on Grab Holdings (GRAB US), Sea Ltd (SE US), Avarga Ltd (AVARGA SP), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Jollibee Foods...

Angus Mackintosh

INTP IJ - Finetuning FY24-25 Est. On Lower ASP yet Higher Opex Efficiency

INTP recorded an in line 9M24 net profit (66%/68% of our/consensus est), driven by cost efficiency despite lower ASP on a qoq basis.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Cement: FY25 Outlook: Limited Growth Catalysts Despite Undemanding Valuation (NEUTRAL)

We expect cement sales volume to grow by 2.3% yoy in FY25, with flattish bag cement growth and moderating bulk growth to 8% yoy.

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab's High-Value Boost, Sea's Shopee in Profit, and Keepers

The past week saw insights on Grab Holdings (GRAB US), Sea Ltd (SE US), Avarga Ltd (AVARGA SP), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Jollibee Foods...

Angus Mackintosh

INTP IJ - Finetuning FY24-25 Est. On Lower ASP yet Higher Opex Efficiency

INTP recorded an in line 9M24 net profit (66%/68% of our/consensus est), driven by cost efficiency despite lower ASP on a qoq basis.

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation