External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The 10-year yield of US Treasury bonds experienced a decline from 4.31% on March 15 to 4.22% on March 22, while the 2-year UST yield saw a decrease of 13 basis points to 4.59% on March 15.</li><li>This movement aligned with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in accordance with expectations.</li><li>Concurrently, despite the decrease in US Treasury yields, the INDOGB 10-year yield remained stable at 6.65% on March 22, 2024, compared to the previous week.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The 10-year yield of US Treasury bonds experienced a decline from 4.31% on March 15 to 4.22% on March 22, while the 2-year UST yield saw a decrease of 13 basis points to 4.59% on March 15.This movement aligned with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in accordance with expectations.Concurrently, despite the decrease in US Treasury yields, the INDOGB 10-year yield remained stable at 6.65% on March 22, 2024, compared to the previous week.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Mar 25 , 2024

<ul><li>Fiscal spending is on the move, with Jan expenditure surging 30.2% y-y despite a 7.2% decline in revenue. We anticipate further growth in Feb.</li><li>While Bank Indonesia expects rate cuts in 2H24, the PBOC made its first cut on its 5-yr Loan Prime Rate to support the ailing growth outlook.</li><li>Targeting a 23% tax ratio, the formation of a State Revenue Agency is being considered, although this would need support from parliament.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fiscal spending is on the move, with Jan expenditure surging 30.2% y-y despite a 7.2% decline in revenue. We anticipate further growth in Feb.While Bank Indonesia expects rate cuts in 2H24, the PBOC made its first cut on its 5-yr Loan Prime Rate to support the ailing growth outlook.Targeting a 23% tax ratio, the formation of a State Revenue Agency is being considered, although this would need support from parliament.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge in asset prices, with UST yields falling to 4.57% and the DXY to 105.</li><li>Growth risk stands to dominate going forward rather than concerns on rising interest rates, and this will drive more fiscal spending, we believe.</li><li>Both INDOGB and the JCI finally saw the return of foreign inflows, with the IDR enjoying some support.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge in asset prices, with UST yields falling to 4.57% and the DXY to 105.Growth risk stands to dominate going forward rather than concerns on rising interest rates, and this will drive more fiscal spending, we believe.Both INDOGB and the JCI finally saw the return of foreign inflows, with the IDR enjoying some support.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>3Q23 results recap: growth recovered, but negative surprises prevailed</li><li>The market’s overall earnings improved in 3Q23 with operating profits growth rebounding to -4% yoy/+13% yoy ex-mining vs. 2Q23’s -6%/+11% yoy, hence driving 9M23 growth to -5% yoy/ +5% ex-mining (based on our coverage universe that has reported results).</li><li>While the 9M23 earnings were also broadly in-line with expectations (53%/ 43% of the companies’ results were in-line with our FY23F/the consensus), surprises skewed to the downside with 28%/ 34% missing (vs. 19%/23% beating estimates). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q23 results recap: growth recovered, but negative surprises prevailedThe market’s overall earnings improved in 3Q23 with operating profits growth rebounding to -4% yoy/+13% yoy ex-mining vs. 2Q23’s -6%/+11% yoy, hence driving 9M23 growth to -5% yoy/ +5% ex-mining (based on our coverage universe that has reported results).While the 9M23 earnings were also broadly in-line with expectations (53%/ 43% of the companies’ results were in-line with our FY23F/the consensus), surprises skewed to the downside with 28%/ 34% missing (vs. 19%/23% beating estimates). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: 3Q23 EPS growth improved, expect more growth catalysts in 4Q23

<ul><li>Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised the market by increasing its BI7DRR to 6.0%, a 25 basis point rise.</li><li>This decision was unexpected, going against both our and consensus predictions of a stable policy rate.</li><li>Such move was taken as a proactive step to response to the ongoing vulnerability of the IDR. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised the market by increasing its BI7DRR to 6.0%, a 25 basis point rise.This decision was unexpected, going against both our and consensus predictions of a stable policy rate.Such move was taken as a proactive step to response to the ongoing vulnerability of the IDR. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy -  Unprecedented Rate Hike: Pre-Emptive Measure

Indonesia 10Y (GIDR10YR INDEX)

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Mar 25 , 2024

The 10-year yield of US Treasury bonds experienced a decline from 4.31% on March 15 to 4.22% on March 22, while the 2-year UST yield saw a decrease...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: A Growth Focus

Fiscal spending is on the move, with Jan expenditure surging 30.2% y-y despite a 7.2% decline in revenue. We anticipate further growth in Feb.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: Renewed Interest

A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge...

BRI Danareksa Research

Equity Strategy: 3Q23 EPS growth improved, expect more growth catalysts in 4Q23

The market’s overall earnings improved in 3Q23 with operating profits growth rebounding to -4% yoy/+13% yoy ex-mining vs. 2Q23’s -6%/+11% yoy

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy - Unprecedented Rate Hike: Pre-Emptive Measure

This decision was unexpected, going against both our and consensus predictions of a stable policy rate. Such move was taken as a proactive step to...

BRI Danareksa Research