External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Volatility at the Forefront. Early 2025 was marked by sharp market volatility driven more by abrupt policy shifts than weakening fundamentals.</li><li>A strong dollar, high yields, and tight liquidity weighed on sentiment, while brief relief from easing geopolitical tensions quickly faded.</li><li>Stress peaked with renewed US tariff actions that triggered recession fears and extreme risk-off moves. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Volatility at the Forefront. Early 2025 was marked by sharp market volatility driven more by abrupt policy shifts than weakening fundamentals.A strong dollar, high yields, and tight liquidity weighed on sentiment, while brief relief from easing geopolitical tensions quickly faded.Stress peaked with renewed US tariff actions that triggered recession fears and extreme risk-off moves. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Outlook 2026: The Year of Transmission – From Policy to Impact

<ul><li>Early 2025 was marked by sharp market volatility driven more by abrupt policy shifts than weakening fundamentals.</li><li>A strong dollar, high yields, and tight liquidity weighed on sentiment, while brief relief from easing geopolitical tensions quickly faded.</li><li>Stress peaked with renewed US tariff actions that triggered recession fears and extreme risk-off moves. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Early 2025 was marked by sharp market volatility driven more by abrupt policy shifts than weakening fundamentals.A strong dollar, high yields, and tight liquidity weighed on sentiment, while brief relief from easing geopolitical tensions quickly faded.Stress peaked with renewed US tariff actions that triggered recession fears and extreme risk-off moves. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Dec 15, 2025

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>JCI closed slightly up (+0.3% w-w) despite correcting from all-time high level during the week.</li>
<li>In terms of performance, however, the market was mainly driven by the conglo names (BUMI +54.6% w-w, BRMS +25.5%, DSSA), while the fundamental stocks underperformed (BBCA -3.6% w-w, TLKM -4.1%, BMRI -1.6%).</li>
<li>Within our coverage universe, the Metal sector has regained leadership (+9.5% w-w), following recovery in gold price, followed by Media (+6.2% w-w, led by SCMA) and Tech (+2.0% w-w, led by GOTO); Industrial Estate, Heavy Equipment and Cigarettes underperformed.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


JCI closed slightly up (+0.3% w-w) despite correcting from all-time high level during the week.
In terms of performance, however, the market was mainly driven by the conglo names (BUMI +54.6% w-w, BRMS +25.5%, DSSA), while the fundamental stocks underperformed (BBCA -3.6% w-w, TLKM -4.1%, BMRI -1.6%).
Within our coverage universe, the Metal sector has regained leadership (+9.5% w-w), following recovery in gold price, followed by Media (+6.2% w-w, led by SCMA) and Tech (+2.0% w-w, led by GOTO); Industrial Estate, Heavy Equipment and Cigarettes underperformed.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – JCI vs. LQ45 Forward P/E Band

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Although the fiscal deficit declined to 1.6% of GDP in 2023, markets are pricing in risks arising from President-elect Prabowo's possible resort to fiscal profligacy in pursuit of 8% growth. </li>
<li>More tangibly, with exports declining 7.5%YoY and imports up 1.1%YoY in Q1CY24, the trade surplus shrank to US$7.3bn (from Q1CY23's US$12.11bn), likely widening the CAD (from Q4CY23's 0.4% of GDP).   </li>
<li>With IDR depreciating 9.3%YoY, BI hiked its policy rate by 25bp last week to pre-empt imported inflation. Another rate hike is likely before Oct'24, so we would Underweight Indonesia. </li>
</ul>


Although the fiscal deficit declined to 1.6% of GDP in 2023, markets are pricing in risks arising from President-elect Prabowo's possible resort to fiscal profligacy in pursuit of 8% growth. 
More tangibly, with exports declining 7.5%YoY and imports up 1.1%YoY in Q1CY24, the trade surplus shrank to US$7.3bn (from Q1CY23's US$12.11bn), likely widening the CAD (from Q4CY23's 0.4% of GDP).   
With IDR depreciating 9.3%YoY, BI hiked its policy rate by 25bp last week to pre-empt imported inflation. Another rate hike is likely before Oct'24, so we would Underweight Indonesia. 


Indonesia: Prabowo Risk Beginning to Hurt IDR, Requiring Tighter Money

<ul><li>The Fed is likely to lean toward an easing bias as labor conditions weaken, though divisions among members remain.</li><li>Stable inflation, ample liquidity, and BI’s intervention framework support Bank Indonesia’s gradual 2026 rate cuts.</li><li>We expect 2026 INDOGB yields at 5.62%–6.14% (5.9% yr-end baseline), supported by expected rate cuts, stable IDR and foreign ownership.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Fed is likely to lean toward an easing bias as labor conditions weaken, though divisions among members remain.Stable inflation, ample liquidity, and BI’s intervention framework support Bank Indonesia’s gradual 2026 rate cuts.We expect 2026 INDOGB yields at 5.62%–6.14% (5.9% yr-end baseline), supported by expected rate cuts, stable IDR and foreign ownership.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Dec 8, 2025

Indonesia 10Y (GIDR10YR INDEX)

Macro Outlook 2026: The Year of Transmission – From Policy to Impact

Volatility at the Forefront. Early 2025 was marked by sharp market volatility driven more by abrupt policy shifts than weakening fundamentals.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Dec 15, 2025

A strong dollar, high yields, and tight liquidity weighed on sentiment, while brief relief from easing geopolitical tensions quickly faded.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – JCI vs. LQ45 Forward P/E Band

In terms of performance, however, the market was mainly driven by the conglo names (BUMI +54.6% w-w, BRMS +25.5%, DSSA), while the fundamental...

BRI Danareksa Research

Indonesia: Prabowo Risk Beginning to Hurt IDR, Requiring Tighter Money

Despite a smaller fiscal deficit (1.6% of GDP) in 2023, markets are pricing in "Prabowo risk". The switch to a current account deficit will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Dec 8, 2025

We expect 2026 INDOGB yields at 5.62%–6.14% (5.9% yr-end baseline), supported by expected rate cuts, stable IDR and foreign ownership.

BRI Danareksa Research