External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>As a higher risk premium may likely prevail for the global equity markets in the ST, we continue to prefer the Telco, O&amp;G and Coal sectors, and now think that it is not too early to get back into the Consumer and Cigarette sectors.</li><li>We maintain our JCI 7k end-FY23 target and introduce our bull/bear case scenarios of 7,320/6,760.</li><li>The JCI’s -1.1% wow correction from Oct 16-20 has lowered its PE to 13.1x (close to -2s.d. to the 10-year mean).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As a higher risk premium may likely prevail for the global equity markets in the ST, we continue to prefer the Telco, O&amp;G and Coal sectors, and now think that it is not too early to get back into the Consumer and Cigarette sectors.We maintain our JCI 7k end-FY23 target and introduce our bull/bear case scenarios of 7,320/6,760.The JCI’s -1.1% wow correction from Oct 16-20 has lowered its PE to 13.1x (close to -2s.d. to the 10-year mean).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy - Risk Premium May Stay Elevated, but Growth Outlook Still Intact

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Macro Strategy &amp; Flows TrackersNavigating the VolatilityIn the absence of a change in rate policy, a surge in yield volatility is a rarity</li><li>We believe that the current IDR and yield volatility is mainly driven by exogenous factors, especially with the expectation of the Fed's 'higher for longer' stance, which has led to a protraction of bear steepening of the UST yield curve as well as strength in the DXY</li><li>Bank Indonesia's focus on reducing currency volatility through forex intervention is in line with the recent decline in forex reserves to USD 135bn in Sept 2023, marking a year-to-date low and the largest monthly drop in 4 months</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy &amp; Flows TrackersNavigating the VolatilityIn the absence of a change in rate policy, a surge in yield volatility is a rarityWe believe that the current IDR and yield volatility is mainly driven by exogenous factors, especially with the expectation of the Fed's 'higher for longer' stance, which has led to a protraction of bear steepening of the UST yield curve as well as strength in the DXYBank Indonesia's focus on reducing currency volatility through forex intervention is in line with the recent decline in forex reserves to USD 135bn in Sept 2023, marking a year-to-date low and the largest monthly drop in 4 monthsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Navigating the Volatility

<ul><li>Macro StrategyCurrency Conundrum Bank Indonesia's stance has remained consistent with a continued emphasis on stabilizing the currency</li><li>BI views that the increasing inflation risks will be temporary and manageable</li><li>In addition, BI also foresees capital inflows post an expected peak in the Fed Funds Rate in the November meeting</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro StrategyCurrency Conundrum Bank Indonesia's stance has remained consistent with a continued emphasis on stabilizing the currencyBI views that the increasing inflation risks will be temporary and manageableIn addition, BI also foresees capital inflows post an expected peak in the Fed Funds Rate in the November meetingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Credit

<ul><li>US CPI accelerated to 3.7% on the back of rising energy prices (5.6% m-m) which accounted for half of the monthly inflation.</li><li>As expected, core inflation moderates further to 4.3% y-y (0.3% m-m), on lower shelter inflation.</li><li>Upon closer examination of the data, it becomes clear that several inflationary pressures are indicating a trend towards easing.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

US CPI accelerated to 3.7% on the back of rising energy prices (5.6% m-m) which accounted for half of the monthly inflation.As expected, core inflation moderates further to 4.3% y-y (0.3% m-m), on lower shelter inflation.Upon closer examination of the data, it becomes clear that several inflationary pressures are indicating a trend towards easing.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, September 19, 2023

<ul><li>August 02, Fitch Ratings lowered the United States’ long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA+, citing “expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years,” a weakening of governance, and an increasing general debt load.</li><li>The agency also stated that a combination of tightening credit conditions, declining business investment, and a slowdown in consumption might cause the economy to enter a “mild” recession in the fourth and first quarters of 2023 and 2024, respectively.</li><li>The US GDP growth in 2Q23 fell to 2.1% in the second estimate, compared to 2.4% in the initial estimates and the first quarter’s rise of 2.0% q-q.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

August 02, Fitch Ratings lowered the United States’ long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA+, citing “expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years,” a weakening of governance, and an increasing general debt load.The agency also stated that a combination of tightening credit conditions, declining business investment, and a slowdown in consumption might cause the economy to enter a “mild” recession in the fourth and first quarters of 2023 and 2024, respectively.The US GDP growth in 2Q23 fell to 2.1% in the second estimate, compared to 2.4% in the initial estimates and the first quarter’s rise of 2.0% q-q.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Monthly Report, August 2023

Indonesia 10Y (GIDR10YR INDEX)

Equity Strategy - Risk Premium May Stay Elevated, but Growth Outlook Still Intact

We maintain our JCI 7k end-FY23 target and introduce our bull/bear case scenarios of 7,320/6,760. The JCI’s -1.1% wow correction from Oct 16-20 has...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: Navigating the Volatility

Macro Strategy & Flows TrackersNavigating the VolatilityIn the absence of a change in rate policy, a surge in yield volatility is a rarity

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: Currency Conundrum

Macro StrategyCurrency ConundrumBank Indonesia's stance has remained consistent with a continued emphasis on stabilizing the currency

BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, September 19, 2023

US CPI accelerated to 3.7% on the back of rising energy prices (5.6% m-m) which accounted for half of the monthly inflation.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Monthly Report, August 2023

The US GDP growth in 2Q23 fell to 2.1% in the second estimate, compared to 2.4% in the initial estimates and the first quarter’s rise of 2.0% q-q.

BRI Danareksa Research