Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

China Merchants Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Competitor Call Reveals Numerous Additional Risks Which Will Weigh On Results. </li>
<li>No Clarity On Go Forward Core Bottom-Line, Especially Gains and Loss Provisions. </li>
<li>Reserve to NPLs Looks Overstated, as WMP and Securities Are Included In Loan Reserves. </li>
</ul>



Competitor Call Reveals Numerous Additional Risks Which Will Weigh On Results. 
No Clarity On Go Forward Core Bottom-Line, Especially Gains and Loss Provisions. 
Reserve to NPLs Looks Overstated, as WMP and Securities Are Included In Loan Reserves. 


China Merchants Bank – Accelerating Risk

<ul>
<li>
Default: Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa] allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond;</li>
<li>
Obfuscation On F/S: Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our view, obfuscated the true nature of liquidity at Kaisa; and</li>
<li>
Other Creditors: In addition to offshore bondholders, Kaisa’s main banks include: Bank of China (3988.HK); ICBC (1398.HK); Ping An Bank (000001.CH); China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK); and China CITIC Bank (998.HK).</li>
</ul>



Default: Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa] allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond;

Obfuscation On F/S: Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our view, obfuscated the true nature of liquidity at Kaisa; and

Other Creditors: In addition to offshore bondholders, Kaisa’s main banks include: Bank of China (3988.HK); ICBC (1398.HK); Ping An Bank (000001.CH); China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK); and China CITIC Bank (998.HK).


Kaisa Group Holdings – Second Domino Falls

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest passive outflows as a result of capping will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> due to their weight exceeding 8% in all three indices.</li>
<li>There are large funding outflows (in terms of days of ADV to trade) on quite a few Hong Kong property stocks as well as stocks from the financials sector.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest passive outflows as a result of capping will be on Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) due to their weight exceeding 8% in all three indices.
There are large funding outflows (in terms of days of ADV to trade) on quite a few Hong Kong property stocks as well as stocks from the financials sector.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: December Rebalance Flows Post Capping

*Kaisa Defaults: On November 4, 2021, Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa], which provided a guarantee on a wealth management product (WMP), disclosed that it had missed a payment - citing that “it is facing unprecedented liquidity pressure due to a challenging property market and rating downgrades”.  While the 25th largest developer by home sales in mainland China may not appear to be significant, Kaisa does have the second largest level of short-term debt due (USD 3.2 bn) after China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] without any meaningful plan for repayment; and*We Await Evergrande’s Next Payments: We await official word on whether Evergrande’s Scenery Journey met its coupon payment of USD 82.5 mn due November 6, 2021, and we look toward the 30-day grace period expiry on a third set of bond interest payments of USD 148 mn due November 10, 2021.

*Kaisa Defaults: On November 4, 2021, Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa], which provided a guarantee on a wealth management product (WMP), disclosed that it had missed a payment - citing that “it is facing unprecedented liquidity pressure due to a challenging property market and rating downgrades”.  While the 25th largest developer by home sales in mainland China may not appear to be significant, Kaisa does have the second largest level of short-term debt due (USD 3.2 bn) after China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] without any meaningful plan for repayment; and*We Await Evergrande’s Next Payments: We await official word on whether Evergrande’s Scenery Journey met its coupon payment of USD 82.5 mn due November 6, 2021, and we look toward the 30-day grace period expiry on a third set of bond interest payments of USD 148 mn due November 10, 2021.   

Postal Savings Bank of China C / Equity Bottom-Up

*Blowout 3Q21 Results: Established in 2007, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658.HK) [PSB], mainland China’s youngest large commercial bank, reported 3Q21 bottom-line results of CNY 23.5 bn – increasing CNY 3.7 bn (18.6%) linked quarter. Much of the improvement at PSB is due to credit leverage, as loss provisions declined CNY 9.3 bn (54.3%); and*Credit Quality Continues Its Positive Turn, But Reserves More Than Adequate: Net new NPLs did increase CNY 7.8 bn or 61.0% annualized versus CNY 14.9 bn or 116.6% at 2Q21. Despite the increase in net new NPLs, it would appear that PSB’s reserves would remain excessive to the tune of CNY 100 bn or about a year of pre-tax profits – begging the question of why not reverse loss reserves?

*Blowout 3Q21 Results: Established in 2007, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658.HK) [PSB], mainland China’s youngest large commercial bank, reported 3Q21 bottom-line results of CNY 23.5 bn – increasing CNY 3.7 bn (18.6%) linked quarter. Much of the improvement at PSB is due to credit leverage, as loss provisions declined CNY 9.3 bn (54.3%); and*Credit Quality Continues Its Positive Turn, But Reserves More Than Adequate: Net new NPLs did increase CNY 7.8 bn or 61.0% annualized versus CNY 14.9 bn or 116.6% at 2Q21. Despite the increase in net new NPLs, it would appear that PSB’s reserves would remain excessive to the tune of CNY 100 bn or about a year of pre-tax profits – begging the question of why not reverse loss reserves?

Postal Savings Bank of China – Reserve Reversals Expected

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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ICBC (H) (1398 HK)

China Merchants Bank – Accelerating Risk

CHINA MERCHANTS BANK: A discussion over the use of gains and a drop in loss provisions during 3Q21 would have been a better use of time. CMB’s core...

Thomas J. Monaco

Kaisa Group Holdings – Second Domino Falls

KAISA: Kaisa allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond. Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: December Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The Dec rebalance of the HK indices will use today's closing prices to cap the stocks at 8%. Meituan and Tencent will see large outflows due to...

Brian Freitas

China Evergrande Group – Kaisa Rolled

EVERGRANDE: Kaisa missed a bond payment, and has the second largest level of short-term debt due. We await official word Evergrande’s Scenery...

Thomas J. Monaco

Postal Savings Bank of China – Reserve Reversals Expected

POSTAL SAVINGS BANK: PSB's QOQ 3Q21 increased 18.6%, due largely to credit leverage and net interest income improvement. PSB’s reserves appear...

Thomas J. Monaco

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