Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.</li>
<li>The estimates of the scale of the problem are wide, and many are rooted in likely misinterpretation of the official data.</li>
<li>The scale of the true problem is likely much smaller than most estimates and there are new indicators suggesting so.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.
The estimates of the scale of the problem are wide, and many are rooted in likely misinterpretation of the official data.
The scale of the true problem is likely much smaller than most estimates and there are new indicators suggesting so.


China Property - Is The Delivery Of New Homes (Pre-Sold Pre-2022) Problem Solved?

<ul>
<li>China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today</li>
<li>In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years</li>
<li>While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics</li>
</ul>


China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today
In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years
While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics


China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

<ul>
<li>The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less negative".</li>
<li>We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report, which looks at 16 major cities and the latest data for the week ending June 30.</li>
<li>Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.</li>
</ul>


The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less negative".
We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report, which looks at 16 major cities and the latest data for the week ending June 30.
Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.


China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Now Clearly "Less Negative" (To June 30, 2024)

<ul>
<li>In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets</li>
<li>We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements</li>
<li>The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view <a href="https://vimeo.com/911098574/5874dfd757?share=copy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this 3-minute version</a> with a few highlights.</li>
</ul>


In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets
We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements
The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view this 3-minute version with a few highlights.


Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

<ul>
<li>We highlight the latest policy developments with the wave of developer projects getting whitelisted for financing support.</li>
<li>There is plenty of local news about city-level project approvals and a growing number of developers announced how many of theirs have been whitelisted.</li>
<li>The big question is what proportion of the whitelisted projects will get the actual loans.</li>
</ul>


We highlight the latest policy developments with the wave of developer projects getting whitelisted for financing support.
There is plenty of local news about city-level project approvals and a growing number of developers announced how many of theirs have been whitelisted.
The big question is what proportion of the whitelisted projects will get the actual loans.


China

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. is a large-scale integrated investment group primarily engaged in property development, investment, and management, alongside hotel and catering, cultural center, and healthcare operations. Its portfolio includes residential properties, villas, offices, serviced apartments, and urban complexes. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kaisa Group (1638 HK)

China Property - Is The Delivery Of New Homes (Pre-Sold Pre-2022) Problem Solved?

In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

In this brief note, we put together the key China macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years, based on today's Jan-Dec...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Now Clearly "Less Negative" (To June 30, 2024)

China Property: The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less...

Robert Ciemniak

Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

China: As the Two Meetings kick off this week, our China Property Outlook 2024 webinar from February dives deeper into the China housing market,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: The Red-Hot Whitelists

We highlight the latest policy developments with the wave of developer projects getting whitelisted for financing support.

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)