European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NAV rose 8% YTD to SEK 179 bn; Industrivärden C trades at a tight 4.5% discount.</li>
<li>Concentrated, high-quality portfolio: Sandvik + Volvo ≈ 60% NAV; ultra-low 0.07% costs. Solid balance sheet (A+/Stable, 3% leverage) but limited near-term upside after discount compression. </li>
<li>Tactically, short-bias positioning (short holdco / long asset basket) is attractive near a 3–6% discount, while a renewed 8–10% gap would again justify a reversal into the classic long-holdco trade.</li>
</ul>


NAV rose 8% YTD to SEK 179 bn; Industrivärden C trades at a tight 4.5% discount.
Concentrated, high-quality portfolio: Sandvik + Volvo ≈ 60% NAV; ultra-low 0.07% costs. Solid balance sheet (A+/Stable, 3% leverage) but limited near-term upside after discount compression. 
Tactically, short-bias positioning (short holdco / long asset basket) is attractive near a 3–6% discount, while a renewed 8–10% gap would again justify a reversal into the classic long-holdco trade.


Industrivärden Q3 2025: NAV Growth, Narrowing Discount, and Portfolio Rotation

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vivendi's restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.</li>
<li>Porsche SE's discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.</li>
<li>Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio's 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi's restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.
Porsche SE's discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.
Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio's 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2026 Report

<ul>
<li>Median discount tightened from -1.1% to -0.5%, but the mean widened to -3.7%, as several already-large discounts moved further away from parity.</li>
<li>Carlsberg was the largest widener at -18.8%, while Grifols reached -33.3% and MFE -28.3%, improving prospective returns from convergence trades.</li>
<li>Grifols and MFE stand out among new positions, while Ericsson’s B-only SEK15bn buyback remains the most relevant active capital-structure development.</li>
</ul>


Median discount tightened from -1.1% to -0.5%, but the mean widened to -3.7%, as several already-large discounts moved further away from parity.
Carlsberg was the largest widener at -18.8%, while Grifols reached -33.3% and MFE -28.3%, improving prospective returns from convergence trades.
Grifols and MFE stand out among new positions, while Ericsson’s B-only SEK15bn buyback remains the most relevant active capital-structure development.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September '26 Report

<ul>
<li>GBL and Porsche became more attractive in August as discounts widened to 26.4% and 30.2%, respectively, despite higher NAVs; Investor and Industrivärden remain above NAV.</li>
<li>Vivendi remains the valuation outlier at a 55.5% discount after July's court ruling removed mandatory-offer optionality, leaving substantial upside but no obvious near-term convergence catalyst.</li>
<li>Holding-Company valuations remain driven by governance, balance sheets and catalysts rather than historical averages: GBL offers the best balance, while Investor's premium leaves little margin of safety.</li>
</ul>


GBL and Porsche became more attractive in August as discounts widened to 26.4% and 30.2%, respectively, despite higher NAVs; Investor and Industrivärden remain above NAV.
Vivendi remains the valuation outlier at a 55.5% discount after July's court ruling removed mandatory-offer optionality, leaving substantial upside but no obvious near-term convergence catalyst.
Holding-Company valuations remain driven by governance, balance sheets and catalysts rather than historical averages: GBL offers the best balance, while Investor's premium leaves little margin of safety.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August 2026 Report

<ul>
<li>Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.</li>
<li>Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.</li>
<li>Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.</li>
</ul>


Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.
Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.
Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

Sweden

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

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Industrivarden (INDUC SS)

Industrivärden Q3 2025: NAV Growth, Narrowing Discount, and Portfolio Rotation

Industrivärden offers low-cost exposure to Sweden’s industrial core via Volvo and Sandvik. NAV +8% YTD; discount shrinks to 4.5%. Quality holdco...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2026 Report

Wide discounts, persistent premiums and shifting catalysts. We revisit Europe's main holding-company valuation gaps and where the next convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September '26 Report

September brought fresh dispersion: Carlsberg, Grifols and MFE widened sharply, improving convergence returns, while Ericsson's B-only buyback adds...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August 2026 Report

GBL and Porsche cheapened in August, while Investor remains above NAV. Vivendi's 55.5% discount offers the largest upside, but July's court ruling...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

August brought fresh dispersion across Europe's dual-class shares, creating new relative-value opportunities while corporate actions remain an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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