European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have not shown a clear pattern during August, some widened while others tightened. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 47.5%); GBL, 36.2% (vs. 39.1%); </li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 17.9% (vs.16.4%);  Industrivärden C, 7.8% (vs. 6.6%); Investor B, 16.6% (vs. 15%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.5% (vs. 43.8%). The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 17.8% (vs. 19%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC, long RIO LN/short RIO AU.</li>
</ul>


The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have not shown a clear pattern during August, some widened while others tightened. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 47.5%); GBL, 36.2% (vs. 39.1%); 
Heineken Holding, 17.9% (vs.16.4%);  Industrivärden C, 7.8% (vs. 6.6%); Investor B, 16.6% (vs. 15%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.5% (vs. 43.8%). The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 17.8% (vs. 19%).
What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC, long RIO LN/short RIO AU.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August’23 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-July, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Spreads could further widen in the short-term. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-July, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 at same level).
Spreads could further widen in the short-term. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during July. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.5%; GBL, 39.1%; Heineken Holding, 16.4%; Industrivärden C, 6.6%; Investor B, 15%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 43.8%.</li>
<li>The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 19%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.</li>
<li>Interesting situations: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during July. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.5%; GBL, 39.1%; Heineken Holding, 16.4%; Industrivärden C, 6.6%; Investor B, 15%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 43.8%.
The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 19%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.
Interesting situations: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July’23 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>According to Invest Chosun, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> plans to submit a merger registration statement to the KRX in July, with Mirae Asset Securities acting as the lead underwriter.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a>'s most recent buyback should be done now-ish. They have been ~15-20% of volume over the past month. The Trade would be short Canon vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh (7752 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


According to Invest Chosun, Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) plans to submit a merger registration statement to the KRX in July, with Mirae Asset Securities acting as the lead underwriter.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.

Canon (7751 JP)'s most recent buyback should be done now-ish. They have been ~15-20% of volume over the past month. The Trade would be short Canon vs Ricoh (7752 JP).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Celltrion, Fast Retailing, Canon, Costa, Chindata

<ul>
<li>The discount to NAV of C shares is 7.4%, well below the "usual" 15% conglomerate discount, and also below the 5-year average of 10%.</li>
<li>C shares are trading at a 0.3% discount to A shares. The reduction in the discount could be driven by acquisitions by the Lundbergs of C shares.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 158,144 million, a 18% increase. My target TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 10% discount to NAV, is SEK 329.5 (15% higher).</li>
</ul>


The discount to NAV of C shares is 7.4%, well below the "usual" 15% conglomerate discount, and also below the 5-year average of 10%.
C shares are trading at a 0.3% discount to A shares. The reduction in the discount could be driven by acquisitions by the Lundbergs of C shares.
My target NAV is SEK 158,144 million, a 18% increase. My target TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 10% discount to NAV, is SEK 329.5 (15% higher).


Industrivärden H1, Discount and Target NAV

Sweden

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

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Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during August. Interesting situations are Investor AB vs. assets, Porsche SE/vs....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘23 Report

Since mid-July, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during July. Interesting situations, in my view: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Celltrion, Fast Retailing, Canon, Costa, Chindata

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Industrivärden H1, Discount and Target NAV

NAV on 30 June was SEK 136.8 billion (SEK 317/share). During H1, NAV increased by 8%, or SEK 24/share. Total return for the period was 20% for the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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