European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>GBL and Porsche became more attractive in August as discounts widened to 26.4% and 30.2%, respectively, despite higher NAVs; Investor and Industrivärden remain above NAV.</li>
<li>Vivendi remains the valuation outlier at a 55.5% discount after July's court ruling removed mandatory-offer optionality, leaving substantial upside but no obvious near-term convergence catalyst.</li>
<li>Holding-Company valuations remain driven by governance, balance sheets and catalysts rather than historical averages: GBL offers the best balance, while Investor's premium leaves little margin of safety.</li>
</ul>


GBL and Porsche became more attractive in August as discounts widened to 26.4% and 30.2%, respectively, despite higher NAVs; Investor and Industrivärden remain above NAV.
Vivendi remains the valuation outlier at a 55.5% discount after July's court ruling removed mandatory-offer optionality, leaving substantial upside but no obvious near-term convergence catalyst.
Holding-Company valuations remain driven by governance, balance sheets and catalysts rather than historical averages: GBL offers the best balance, while Investor's premium leaves little margin of safety.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August 2026 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.</li>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels</li>
</ul>


Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.
The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.
Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels


Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

<ul>
<li>Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.</li>
<li>Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.</li>
<li>Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.</li>
</ul>


Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.
Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.
Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

<ul>
<li>Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.</li>
<li>Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.</li>
<li>BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.
Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.
BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

Sweden

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

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Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August 2026 Report

GBL and Porsche cheapened in August, while Investor remains above NAV. Vivendi's 55.5% discount offers the largest upside, but July's court ruling...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 in re-emerging as leadership, and Financials $EUFN are leading the charge within Europe/UK. Banks, insurance, and financial...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

August brought fresh dispersion across Europe's dual-class shares, creating new relative-value opportunities while corporate actions remain an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

-July widened dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe, yet selective convergence persisted beneath the surface. Structural anomalies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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