Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Infineon Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Very large miss. Sept-24 (4Q FY24) EPS -30% below Consensus.  Dec-24 (1Q FY25) revenue guidance -16% below Consensus, operating profit at least -20% below Consensus.</li>
<li>End-Demand is slow, large inventory destocking will continue into 1H FY25, followed by “no hockey stick recovery” in 2H FY25. “Current visibility is very low”. </li>
<li>For FY25 (starting in Dec-24 quarter), Consensus assumes +17% revenue growth YoY, management guided for a slight decline. Adding some margins compression, FY25 Consensus Net Income  is ~25-30% too high.   </li>
</ul>


Very large miss. Sept-24 (4Q FY24) EPS -30% below Consensus.  Dec-24 (1Q FY25) revenue guidance -16% below Consensus, operating profit at least -20% below Consensus.
End-Demand is slow, large inventory destocking will continue into 1H FY25, followed by “no hockey stick recovery” in 2H FY25. “Current visibility is very low”. 
For FY25 (starting in Dec-24 quarter), Consensus assumes +17% revenue growth YoY, management guided for a slight decline. Adding some margins compression, FY25 Consensus Net Income  is ~25-30% too high.   


Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.</li><li><p>I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.</p></li><li><p>For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future</p></li></ul><div data-component-name="DigestPostEmbed"><a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/chinese-evs-and-the-lagging-edge" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></div>

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Microchip used to be the bellwether for semiconductor demand After many semis guided weaknesses in automotive, industrial, and digital consumer much earlier, Microchip's 19% miss in 1Q24 gives no surprise.</li>
<li>
<strong>Why the worst among all?</strong> We attributed Microchip to over 85% of its products on automotive, industrial, and digital consumer. Other semis have higher exposure on PC and comm.</li>
<li>
<strong>Priced in?</strong> We estimate over 20% y/y decline in 2024 sales vs. Bloomberg's -8% y/y. 2024E EPS of US$2.94 is likely below US$1. Price is only 10% below historical peak.</li>
</ul>


Microchip used to be the bellwether for semiconductor demand After many semis guided weaknesses in automotive, industrial, and digital consumer much earlier, Microchip's 19% miss in 1Q24 gives no surprise.

Why the worst among all? We attributed Microchip to over 85% of its products on automotive, industrial, and digital consumer. Other semis have higher exposure on PC and comm.

Priced in? We estimate over 20% y/y decline in 2024 sales vs. Bloomberg's -8% y/y. 2024E EPS of US$2.94 is likely below US$1. Price is only 10% below historical peak.


From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

<ul>
<li>Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.</li>
<li>Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.</li>
</ul>


Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.
Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.
We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.


First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.</li>
<li>End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. </li>
<li>Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.</li>
</ul>


Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.
End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. 
Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.


Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

Germany

Infineon Technologies AG designs, manufactures, and markets semiconductors. The Company offers products include power semiconductors, microcontrollers, security controllers, radio frequency products, and sensors. Infineon markets its products to the automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer and security electronics sectors.

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Infineon Technologies (IFNNY US)

Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

On Consensus before earnings release, the stock trades at 12.5x FY25. After Consensus adjustment, the stock should be trading at ~16-17x FY25 EPS.

Nicolas Baratte

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All? For next six months, we like both Intel and Qualcomm more...

Andrew Lu

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

On Consensus before earnings release, the stock trades at 12.5x FY25. After Consensus adjustment, the stock should be trading at ~16-17x FY25 EPS.

Nicolas Baratte

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All? For next six months, we like both Intel and Qualcomm more...

Andrew Lu

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

​Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...