Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infosys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:267:1" rel="noopener">Infosys (INFO IN</a> / INFY US) reports Q1 FY26 results on Thursday, 16 October 2025 at 15:45 IST; earnings days historically triggered outsized price moves.</li>
<li>
Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven price swings of up to ±9%. Options imply a ±3.5% swing. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly post earnings.</li>
<li>
Portfolio Impact: As a Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.</li>
</ul>



Infosys (INFO IN / INFY US) reports Q1 FY26 results on Thursday, 16 October 2025 at 15:45 IST; earnings days historically triggered outsized price moves.

Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven price swings of up to ±9%. Options imply a ±3.5% swing. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly post earnings.

Portfolio Impact: As a Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.


Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Trump administration's announcement of U.S. $100,000 fee for new H-1B petitions  triggered anxiety, travel confusion, and immediate negative market reaction for Indian IT names.</li>
<li>Tech workers in the US report heightened hostility, reluctance to travel, and SMB clients unable to absorb fees risk reduced sponsorship, higher attrition, and retention challenges.</li>
<li>While there may be limited short-term P&amp;L impact, but structural threats — including the HIRE Act — could reshape delivery models, near-shoring, and pricing over 6–18 months.</li>
</ul>


The Trump administration's announcement of U.S. $100,000 fee for new H-1B petitions  triggered anxiety, travel confusion, and immediate negative market reaction for Indian IT names.
Tech workers in the US report heightened hostility, reluctance to travel, and SMB clients unable to absorb fees risk reduced sponsorship, higher attrition, and retention challenges.
While there may be limited short-term P&amp;L impact, but structural threats — including the HIRE Act — could reshape delivery models, near-shoring, and pricing over 6–18 months.


H-1B Fee Fallout: An Employee’s Perspective and Implications for Indian IT

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infosys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:267:1" rel="noopener">Infosys Ltd (INFO IN)</a> made headlines in the market after approving share buyback worth INR 180 bn at INR 1800 per share.</li>
<li>The buyback is the largest in company's history and represents 2.4% of the paid up capital. </li>
<li>However, from the shareholders lens, the buyback would be tax-inefficient, after the regulatory changes which came in effect from Oct 2024.</li>
</ul>



Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) made headlines in the market after approving share buyback worth INR 180 bn at INR 1800 per share.
The buyback is the largest in company's history and represents 2.4% of the paid up capital. 
However, from the shareholders lens, the buyback would be tax-inefficient, after the regulatory changes which came in effect from Oct 2024.


Infosys Buyback: Tax-Inefficient for Shareholders?

<ul>
<li>Indian IT outperformed over 10 years, but recent underperformance and weak R&amp;D spending raise questions on innovation versus high dividend and buyback payouts.</li>
<li>AI disruption threatens coding demand and outsourcing models, risking productivity shocks, workforce layoffs, and urban consumption downturns if companies don’t adapt with innovation.</li>
<li>Boards must prioritize bold investments and acquisitions over capital returns, positioning Indian IT as innovation leaders rather than risk-averse cash generators.</li>
</ul>


Indian IT outperformed over 10 years, but recent underperformance and weak R&amp;D spending raise questions on innovation versus high dividend and buyback payouts.
AI disruption threatens coding demand and outsourcing models, risking productivity shocks, workforce layoffs, and urban consumption downturns if companies don’t adapt with innovation.
Boards must prioritize bold investments and acquisitions over capital returns, positioning Indian IT as innovation leaders rather than risk-averse cash generators.


Indian IT | Urge to the Boards – Stop the Buybacks

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

India

Infosys Limited provides IT consulting and software services, including e-business, program management and supply chain solutions. The Group's services include application development, product co-development, and system implementation and system engineering. Infosys targets businesses specializing in the insurance, banking, telecommunication and manufacturing sectors.

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Infosys Ltd (INFO IN)

Infosys (INFO IN) Q2 Results:

Infosys will report Q2 results on Thu,16 Oct. Historically significant price swings potentially impacting Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex. Option markets...

Gaudenz Schneider

H-1B Fee Fallout: An Employee’s Perspective and Implications for Indian IT

Trump's $100,000 fee for new H-1B petitions causes anxiety, travel confusion, and negative market reaction for Indian IT names, leading to...

Pranav Bhavsar

Infosys Buyback: Tax-Inefficient for Shareholders?

Infosys Ltd approved a record-breaking share buyback worth INR 180 bn at INR 1800 per share, but shareholders may face tax inefficiencies due to...

Nitin Mangal

Indian IT | Urge to the Boards – Stop the Buybacks

Indian IT industry faces challenges with underperformance and lack of innovation, must prioritize bold investments to adapt to AI disruption and...

Pranav Bhavsar

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Infosys (INFO IN) Q2 Results:

​Infosys will report Q2 results on Thu,16 Oct. Historically significant price swings potentially impacting Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex. Option markets...

Gaudenz Schneider

H-1B Fee Fallout: An Employee’s Perspective and Implications for Indian IT

​Trump's $100,000 fee for new H-1B petitions causes anxiety, travel confusion, and negative market reaction for Indian IT names, leading to...

Pranav Bhavsar

Infosys Buyback: Tax-Inefficient for Shareholders?

​Infosys Ltd approved a record-breaking share buyback worth INR 180 bn at INR 1800 per share, but shareholders may face tax inefficiencies due to...

Nitin Mangal

Indian IT | Urge to the Boards – Stop the Buybacks

​Indian IT industry faces challenges with underperformance and lack of innovation, must prioritize bold investments to adapt to AI disruption and...

Pranav Bhavsar

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Infosys will report Q2 results on Thu,16 Oct. Historically significant price swings potentially impacting Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex. Option markets...

Trump's $100,000 fee for new H-1B petitions causes anxiety, travel confusion, and negative market reaction for Indian IT names, leading to...

Infosys Ltd approved a record-breaking share buyback worth INR 180 bn at INR 1800 per share, but shareholders may face tax inefficiencies due to...

Indian IT industry faces challenges with underperformance and lack of innovation, must prioritize bold investments to adapt to AI disruption and...

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...