Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.</li>
<li>It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.</li>
<li>The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming</li>
</ul>


$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.
It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.
The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming


Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
Macro data points: Chinese import and export growth, and inflation data.</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infosys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:267:1" rel="noopener">Infosys Ltd (INFO IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

Macro data points: Chinese import and export growth, and inflation data.

 Companies mentioned:Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Infosys Ltd (INFO IN), SK Hynix (000660 KS)



GEMWeekly (9 Aug 2024): HBM Chip Stockpiling; China Macro; Samsung, Infosys, SK Hynix

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The average Indian allocation among active GEM funds broke through the 15% barrier at the start of 2024, despite an increasing underweight versus the benchmark index.</li>
<li>Valuation-Driven Underweight: The average weight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF hit record underweights of -2.44%, with only 27.6% of funds positioned overweight. EM Value funds hit record -8.7% underweight.</li>
<li>HDFC Bank is the most widely held stock, owned by 60.5% of funds, while a majority of Indian names, such as Reliance Industries, are underweighted by active GEM funds.</li>
</ul>


The average Indian allocation among active GEM funds broke through the 15% barrier at the start of 2024, despite an increasing underweight versus the benchmark index.
Valuation-Driven Underweight: The average weight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF hit record underweights of -2.44%, with only 27.6% of funds positioned overweight. EM Value funds hit record -8.7% underweight.
HDFC Bank is the most widely held stock, owned by 60.5% of funds, while a majority of Indian names, such as Reliance Industries, are underweighted by active GEM funds.


India:  Record Exposure Gives Rise to Caution

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Jio Platforms Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-platforms-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50269:1" rel="noopener">Jio Platforms</a> is looking to raise up to US$3.75bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Jio Platforms Ltd (JPL) is a technology and digital services platform company promoted by Reliance Industries, built on a proprietary digital technology stack and pan-India connectivity infrastructure.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Jio Platforms is looking to raise up to US$3.75bn in its upcoming India IPO.
Jio Platforms Ltd (JPL) is a technology and digital services platform company promoted by Reliance Industries, built on a proprietary digital technology stack and pan-India connectivity infrastructure.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Aequitas: Jio Platforms Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

India

Infosys Limited provides IT consulting and software services, including e-business, program management and supply chain solutions. The Group's services include application development, product co-development, and system implementation and system engineering. Infosys targets businesses specializing in the insurance, banking, telecommunication and manufacturing sectors.

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Infosys Ltd (INFO IN)

Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

Still No Decisive Breakout as $SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; On watch for SPX bull trap/failed breakout, confirmed only on a break below 5670. 2007...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

GEMWeekly (9 Aug 2024): HBM Chip Stockpiling; China Macro; Samsung, Infosys, SK Hynix

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global...

Wium Malan, CFA

India: Record Exposure Gives Rise to Caution

Despite record MSCI India highs, valuations keep India as a significant underweight for active EM managers. Underweights client to -2.44% versus...

Steven Holden

Aequitas: Jio Platforms Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

Jio Platforms is looking to raise up to US$3.75bn in its upcoming India IPO. We have looked at the past performance in our earlier notes, In this...

Sumeet Singh

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