Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.</li>
<li>Another week of inflows for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!</li>
</ul>


The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.
The SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.
Another week of inflows for the iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

<ul>
<li>There are 10 changes for the STAR100 Index in March. We correctly forecast all 10 deletes and got 8 of the 10 adds right.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% and that results in a one-way trade of CNY 1.79bn. Nearly all constituent changes have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have started to outperform the deletes and the index over the last couple of weeks and there could be more outperformance in the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 10 changes for the STAR100 Index in March. We correctly forecast all 10 deletes and got 8 of the 10 adds right.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% and that results in a one-way trade of CNY 1.79bn. Nearly all constituent changes have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.
The adds have started to outperform the deletes and the index over the last couple of weeks and there could be more outperformance in the next two weeks.


STAR100 Index Rebalance: Ten Changes a Side; Adds Outperforming as Expected

<ul>
<li>There will be a bunch of rebalance announcements towards the start and at the end of the coming week. This includes the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and global indices.</li>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and related indices ends on 16 February. The announcement of the changes will come couple of weeks later.</li>
<li>There were HUGE inflows to mainland China ETFs for yet another week as Central Huijin indicated that they would continue to buy/create ETFs units.</li>
</ul>


There will be a bunch of rebalance announcements towards the start and at the end of the coming week. This includes the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and global indices.
The review period for the March rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and related indices ends on 16 February. The announcement of the changes will come couple of weeks later.
There were HUGE inflows to mainland China ETFs for yet another week as Central Huijin indicated that they would continue to buy/create ETFs units.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.</li>
<li>There are 10 stocks in inclusion zone and 11 in deletion zone. There should be 10 changes since that is the cap for the maximum changes at a single rebalance.</li>
<li>The potential adds and deletes are down between 37-47% over the last 6 months and a long/short trade could provide superior risk-adjusted returns.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.
There are 10 stocks in inclusion zone and 11 in deletion zone. There should be 10 changes since that is the cap for the maximum changes at a single rebalance.
The potential adds and deletes are down between 37-47% over the last 6 months and a long/short trade could provide superior risk-adjusted returns.


STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup

<div><p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> is a free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 50 largest stocks based on full market cap that are listed on the STAR Market.</p></div><div>
<p>The review period for the December rebalance ends on 31 October, the results of the rebalance are likely to be announced on 26 November and the changes will be implemented at the close of trading on 10 December.</p>
<p>There are 191 stocks that will be listed longer than 12 months by 31 October and we expect the index committee to use a 12 month minimum listing history for the December review.</p>
<p>With 11 days remaining in the review period, potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-daqo-new-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34163:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Daqo New Energy (688303 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-goodwe-power-supply-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34165:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu GoodWe Power Supply Technology (688390 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infovision-optoelectronics-kunshan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34164:1" rel="noopener">InfoVision Optoelectronics Kunshan (688055 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eyebright-medical-technology-beijing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33455:1" rel="noopener">Eyebright Medical Technology Beijing (688050 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-huafeng-test-control-technology-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30367:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Huafeng Test &amp; Control Technology-A (688200 CH)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-medicilon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30368:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202 CH)</a> is a very close add currently.</p>
<p>The potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/willfar-information-technology-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30341:1" rel="noopener">Willfar Information Technology-A (688100 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appotronics-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28235:1" rel="noopener">Appotronics Corp Ltd (688007 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/espressif-systems-shanghai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30311:1" rel="noopener">Espressif Systems Shanghai (688018 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiamen-amoytop-biotech-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30377:1" rel="noopener">Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co Ltd (688278 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anji-microelectronics-tech-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30312:1" rel="noopener">Anji Microelectronics Tech-A (688019 CH)</a>.</p>
<p>In the unlikely event that the index committee decides to continue using a 6 month minimum listing history, the potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-daqo-new-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34163:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Daqo New Energy (688303 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zwsoft-guangzhou-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34166:1" rel="noopener">ZWSOFT Guangzhou (688083 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chengdu-xgimi-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34167:1" rel="noopener">Chengdu XGimi Technology (688696 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/opt-machine-vision-tech-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33148:1" rel="noopener">OPT Machine Vision Tech Co-A (688686 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-goodwe-power-supply-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34165:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu GoodWe Power Supply Technology (688390 CH)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infovision-optoelectronics-kunshan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34164:1" rel="noopener">InfoVision Optoelectronics Kunshan (688055 CH)</a> is a close add. There is no change to the list of potential deletions from the index.</p>
<p>One-way turnover at the December rebalance is estimated at 11.04% assuming that CSI &amp; SSE use a 12 month minimum listing history.</p>
</div>

The SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX) is a free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 50 largest stocks based on full market cap that are listed on the STAR Market.
The review period for the December rebalance ends on 31 October, the results of the rebalance are likely to be announced on 26 November and the changes will be implemented at the close of trading on 10 December.
There are 191 stocks that will be listed longer than 12 months by 31 October and we expect the index committee to use a 12 month minimum listing history for the December review.
With 11 days remaining in the review period, potential inclusions are Xinjiang Daqo New Energy (688303 CH), Jiangsu GoodWe Power Supply Technology (688390 CH), InfoVision Optoelectronics Kunshan (688055 CH), Eyebright Medical Technology Beijing (688050 CH) and Beijing Huafeng Test &amp; Control Technology-A (688200 CH). Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202 CH) is a very close add currently.
The potential deletions are Willfar Information Technology-A (688100 CH), Appotronics Corp Ltd (688007 CH), Espressif Systems Shanghai (688018 CH), Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co Ltd (688278 CH) and Anji Microelectronics Tech-A (688019 CH).
In the unlikely event that the index committee decides to continue using a 6 month minimum listing history, the potential inclusions are Xinjiang Daqo New Energy (688303 CH), ZWSOFT Guangzhou (688083 CH), Chengdu XGimi Technology (688696 CH), OPT Machine Vision Tech Co-A (688686 CH) and Jiangsu GoodWe Power Supply Technology (688390 CH), while InfoVision Optoelectronics Kunshan (688055 CH) is a close add. There is no change to the list of potential deletions from the index.
One-way turnover at the December rebalance is estimated at 11.04% assuming that CSI &amp; SSE use a 12 month minimum listing history.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Dec 21 Preview: Big Turnover & Moderate Impact

China

InfoVision Optoelectronics (Kunshan) Co., Ltd. manufactures electronic components. The Company produces tablet panels, desktop panels, notebook panels, industrial displays, automotive displays, and other products. InfoVision Optoelectronics (Kunshan) also operates import and export businesses.

InfoVision Optoelectronics Kun (688055 CH)

InfoVision Optoelectronics Kun (688055 CH)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

STAR100 Index Rebalance: Ten Changes a Side; Adds Outperforming as Expected

There are 10 changes a side for the STAR100 Index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 1.79bn. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup

There could be 10 changes for the STAR50 Index in March. The potential adds and deletes have over 2x ADV to trade on average and given the...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance Dec 21 Preview: Big Turnover & Moderate Impact

We see 5 potential changes to the STAR50 index in Dec and expect a 12 month minimum listing history to be used. The potential inclusions should...

Brian Freitas