European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane / Event-Driven

Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane (INW IM)

<ul>
<li>Ardian and Oak Holdings, controlling 70.6% of INWIT, are reportedly arranging financing for a take-private. Mubadala could join, but no formal offer has emerged.</li>
<li>TIM and Fastweb, accounting for 80% of revenues, are challenging their tower contracts. Our DCF yields €6.44/share with contracts preserved and €5.62 risk-weighted.</li>
<li>At €7.15, a hypothetical €8.50 bid offers 18.9% upside, against 21.4% standalone downside. We would stay on the sidelines pending a formal proposal.</li>
</ul>


Ardian and Oak Holdings, controlling 70.6% of INWIT, are reportedly arranging financing for a take-private. Mubadala could join, but no formal offer has emerged.
TIM and Fastweb, accounting for 80% of revenues, are challenging their tower contracts. Our DCF yields €6.44/share with contracts preserved and €5.62 risk-weighted.
At €7.15, a hypothetical €8.50 bid offers 18.9% upside, against 21.4% standalone downside. We would stay on the sidelines pending a formal proposal.


Ardian & Oak Holdings / INWIT: A Towering Question

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It is not highly tracked, but we can expect many index changes during its quarterly review.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be 14 ADDs/DELs for SE600 in the June 2026 rebal.</li>
<li>The final rankings will be based on the float market caps as of the close of trading on 29th May 2026.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It is not highly tracked, but we can expect many index changes during its quarterly review.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be 14 ADDs/DELs for SE600 in the June 2026 rebal.
The final rankings will be based on the float market caps as of the close of trading on 29th May 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun26: Base Date This Week; Many Changes Incoming

Italy

Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane S.p.A. (INWIT) is Italy's leading wireless infrastructure company. It builds, manages, and operates shared multi-operator passive infrastructure, including towers, masts, poles, small cells, and Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS), providing hosting and coverage services to mobile network operators, fixed wireless access providers, and broadcasters. The company, headquartered in Rome, Italy, was founded in 2015.

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Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane (INW IM)

Ardian & Oak Holdings / INWIT: A Towering Question

Ardian and Oak may take INWIT private, but what would they pay? With 80% of revenues under contractual dispute and limited standalone upside, we...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun26: Base Date This Week; Many Changes Incoming

The final rankings for the June 2026 rebal will be based on data as of 29th May 2026. The ADDs/DELs will be announced on 1st June 2026. Bank...

Afridi Reyal

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