New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Commerce Commission (ComCom) has just released its annual Telecommunications Monitoring report for the year ended June 2025.</li><li>The growth of MVNOs is also clear, they now have &gt;3% mobile connection market share with ARPUs ~-15% below the weighted average of mobile network operators (MNO).</li><li>Mobile churn is elevated, consistent with market share moving between operators.</li></ul>

The Commerce Commission (ComCom) has just released its annual Telecommunications Monitoring report for the year ended June 2025.The growth of MVNOs is also clear, they now have &gt;3% mobile connection market share with ARPUs ~-15% below the weighted average of mobile network operators (MNO).Mobile churn is elevated, consistent with market share moving between operators.

Telco Sector: ComCom Annual Telecommunications Report

<ul><li>Datamine's quarterly Telcowatch market share data for the mobile market indicates a continuation of recent trends in 1Q26.</li><li>Spark (SPK) continues to lose share to 2degrees, while One NZ remains broadly stable.</li><li>One NZ is set to increase prices on select plans by ~+4–6% later this month, consistent with our view that pricing will be a meaningful driver of industry revenue growth.</li></ul>

Datamine's quarterly Telcowatch market share data for the mobile market indicates a continuation of recent trends in 1Q26.Spark (SPK) continues to lose share to 2degrees, while One NZ remains broadly stable.One NZ is set to increase prices on select plans by ~+4–6% later this month, consistent with our view that pricing will be a meaningful driver of industry revenue growth.

<ul><li>The RBNZ has done its best to make sure none of us approach 2023 with any illusions of good times ahead</li><li>Mortgage rates have hit a 10 year high, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly elevated, and the icing on RBNZ's economic cake is its forecast of four quarters of declining GDP</li><li>When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan Steel [VSL], KMD Brands [KMD]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA], SkyCity [SKC]) where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price</li></ul>

The RBNZ has done its best to make sure none of us approach 2023 with any illusions of good times aheadMortgage rates have hit a 10 year high, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly elevated, and the icing on RBNZ's economic cake is its forecast of four quarters of declining GDPWhen choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan Steel [VSL], KMD Brands [KMD]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA], SkyCity [SKC]) where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) announced CDC Data Centres (CDC) has signed another 100MW of contracts.</li><li>We increase our target price to NZ$13.25 due to peer re-rating and marginal near-term earnings upgrades in CDC.</li><li>For CDC to deliver its ~+70% year-on-year increase in EBITDA in FY27, it needs the majority of its FY27 contracts to start generating revenue early in the year.</li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) announced CDC Data Centres (CDC) has signed another 100MW of contracts.We increase our target price to NZ$13.25 due to peer re-rating and marginal near-term earnings upgrades in CDC.For CDC to deliver its ~+70% year-on-year increase in EBITDA in FY27, it needs the majority of its FY27 contracts to start generating revenue early in the year.

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) hosted a confident investor day with presentations from its three largest portfolio companies: CDC Data Centres, One NZ, and Longroad; as well as its most promising future growth platform, Gurin Energy.</li><li>The key updates were reiterations of medium-term targets from each of its three large investments.</li><li>CDC is now tracking to the bottom end of its FY26 guidance range, with timing delays the reason, but it retained confidence in its FY27 target, which now implies ~+70% year-on-year EBITDAF growth; we forecast ~+60% growth.</li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) hosted a confident investor day with presentations from its three largest portfolio companies: CDC Data Centres, One NZ, and Longroad; as well as its most promising future growth platform, Gurin Energy.The key updates were reiterations of medium-term targets from each of its three large investments.CDC is now tracking to the bottom end of its FY26 guidance range, with timing delays the reason, but it retained confidence in its FY27 target, which now implies ~+70% year-on-year EBITDAF growth; we forecast ~+60% growth.

Infratil Investor Day 2025—Reiterating Targets

New Zealand

Infratil Limited is an infrastructure investment company. The Company invests in airports, energy such as renewable and waste-energy, and public transportation.

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Infratil (IFT AU)

Telco Sector: ComCom Annual Telecommunications Report

The Commerce Commission (ComCom) has just released its annual Telecommunications Monitoring report for the year ended June 2025. The growth of...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil CDC Racks Up The Contracts

For CDC to deliver its ~+70% year-on-year increase in EBITDA in FY27, it needs the majority of its FY27 contracts to start generating revenue early...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil Investor Day 2025—Reiterating Targets

Infratil (IFT) hosted a confident investor day with presentations from its three largest portfolio companies: CDC Data Centres, One NZ, and...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Telco Sector: ComCom Annual Telecommunications Report

The Commerce Commission (ComCom) has just released its annual Telecommunications Monitoring report for the year ended June 2025. The growth of...

Forsyth Barr

Telco Sector: 1Q26 Mobile Market Share

Datamine's quarterly Telcowatch market share data for the mobile market indicates a continuation of recent trends in 1Q26. Spark (SPK) continues...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil CDC Racks Up The Contracts

For CDC to deliver its ~+70% year-on-year increase in EBITDA in FY27, it needs the majority of its FY27 contracts to start generating revenue early...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil Investor Day 2025—Reiterating Targets

Infratil (IFT) hosted a confident investor day with presentations from its three largest portfolio companies: CDC Data Centres, One NZ, and...

Forsyth Barr